371
FXUS62 KFFC 161042
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered late afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today
   across north and central Georgia with the main threats being
   gusty winds (40-50mph), and frequent lightning.

- Scattered late afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorms
   Tuesday with the potential for a cluster/line of storms to
   approach from Alabama.

- Saturated soils and increased rainfall through Tuesday leading
   to an increased risk for localized flooding.

Lingering showers have come to an end for the most part across
the area with only a couple of isolated showers in north Georgia.
This is going to feel like a bit of a rinse and repeat forecast
over the short term as areas where soils are already saturated by
rainfall could see patchy fog this morning especially in low
lying areas. Low clouds will be less likely over the areas that
didn`t receive as much rainfall yesterday though.  Southwesterly
flow continues through Tuesday as the area sits between Bermuda
high pressure to the east and troughing to the west. This
southwesterly flow contributes to the higher than normal PWATs for
the area and thus leading to enough moisture to support
afternoon/evening diurnally driven convection. In addition these
higher PWATs are helping to enhance the potential for localized
flooding with these storms already proven to be efficient rainfall
producers. The setup for today looks to be more isolated/scattered
in nature as the area waits for the troughing over the lower MS
valley to push eastward on Tuesday. Convection will be mainly
diurnally driven again today through the early evening hours
although CAMs have began to indicate a linear cluster of
showers/thunderstorms coming from the southwest into the area
towards sundown. With CAPE values at 1500-2500J/kg and near 0
shear values, not expecting storms to be severe today with only
lightning and gusty winds as the main threats. The eastern part of
the area could see lower chances for rainfall as the Bermuda high
pushes into southeast Georgia, overall limiting rain chances.
Thus these storms will likely be sub severe in nature that pop up
with no real movement (outflow dominant). Will need to watch for
any flooding concerns today with the lack of movement expected
from these efficient rainfall producers.

Tuesday, the troughing to our west begins pushing eastward
providing an emphasis for a more focused area of showers and
thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon into evening. CAMs are beginning to
pick up on a line of showers/thunderstorms moving eastward from
Alabama into Georgia near sunset but exact placement is still a
little uncertain. CAPE values Tuesday range from 1500-2500 J/kg
and shear values are closer to 30kt. With this overall, still not
expecting anything impressive with strong storms and the
potential for a severe warning or two.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

At a glance:

- Misery will continue in the form of rising heat indices and
afternoon storms.

- Localized flooding concerns will continue through the long term.

Anyone whose been outside over the past couple of days is probably
aware that summer is here and it came out swinging. For those of you
keeping track at home, the first day of summer is now in the range
of our long term forecast but temperatures and dewpoints are
steadily climbing. By the time we get towards the end of the work
week we`ll likely be seeing triple digit heat indices for the first
time this year as temps rise into the mid 90s and dewpoints stay in
the 70s. The models don`t show any sign of relief and they only
chance we have of seeing a temporary reprieve will come in the form
of afternoon thunderstorms.

Continual SW flow out of the Gulf will fuel not just the humidity
but our diurnal pattern. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected
through the rest of the work week but by Saturday the Euro is
picking up on a bit of a pattern change. There is at least a
possibility that the upper levels go zonal and bring us while not
totally dry air, something a little less damp then what we`re
expecting the rest of the week. Confidence this far out is low, but
if you`re looking for hope you might find it there.

One of the big concerns we have this week will be flooding. With
dewpoints this high, our afternoon storms are likely to be efficient
rain makers. If storms line up over the same area day after day, we
could see some isolated flash flooding or some rivers that go to
flood stage. It`s a tough forecast, given the nature of pulse
convection but keep an eye on the forecast and we`ll keep an eye on
the sky.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

IFR CIGS are patchy in nature and mainly only affecting the
southern and eastern TAF sites. By 13-14z cigs should begin to
scatter out to MVFR and then to VFR by 16-18z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into evening before
sundown. The potential for TSRA does exist after 00z but should
come to and end by 03z. Cigs should scatter out overnight before
lowering again for tomorrow morning.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  71  89  71 /  50  50  50  30
Atlanta         89  72  89  73 /  50  40  50  30
Blairsville     83  65  81  66 /  60  60  70  50
Cartersville    89  70  88  70 /  50  50  60  40
Columbus        91  72  90  72 /  50  20  50  20
Gainesville     87  72  86  71 /  50  50  60  40
Macon           91  72  91  73 /  40  20  40  20
Rome            88  70  87  70 /  50  40  70  40
Peachtree City  90  71  89  71 /  40  40  50  30
Vidalia         91  73  93  75 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Hernandez