376
FXUS62 KFFC 160535
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today across
north and central Georgia with the main threats being gusty winds
(40-50mph) and frequent lightning.

- Saturated soils and increased rainfall through Monday leading  to
an increased risk for localized flooding.

- Lingering humid air and warming temperatures will lead to high
heat index values in central Georgia on Monday.

The Bermuda High remains centered over the western Atlantic while
another 500 mb trough digs southward into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley region. Warm and moist southwesterly flow continues to
overspread the region between these two features. Like the previous
several days, dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s and precipitable
water values are between 1.7 and 2.2 inches across the majority of
the forecast area. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into
the mid 80s across much of north Georgia and upper 80s to low 90s in
central Georgia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon. As SBCAPE values
increase to 2000-3000 J/kg and the trough to the west approaches,
the coverage of storms will increase and spread northward. While the
potential for organized severe weather will be limited by a lack of
shear, a few storms this afternoon through tonight will have the
potential to become strong. With DCAPE values between 600-800 J/kg
and deep atmospheric moisture also contributing to precip-loading in
downdrafts, stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds
of 40-50 mph. Frequent lightning will be contained in all storms.
High PWATs will make storms efficient rainfall producers once again.
Ample soil moisture from recent rainfall and slow, mainly outflow
dominant storm motion will help enhance the potential for
localized flooding where heavier rain occurs.

Patchy fog and low cloud ceilings will be likely during the
overnight and early morning hours on Sunday, particularly in
locations where soils are wet from previous rainfall and cloud cover
dissipates. Temperatures will begin to climb on Monday particularly
to the south of the Fall Line, where highs will rise into the low to
mid 90s. These temperatures, combined with the aforementioned
dewpoints, will contribute to maximum heat indices of 97-102 degrees
in portions of central Georgia. This gradual warming trend will
continue into the long term period. With little change in the
overall pattern, weather conditions will otherwise be very similar
on Monday with scattered to numerous diurnally-driven thunderstorms.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Key Messages

    - More active weather pattern with elevated rain chances
      largely remains in place through the week.

    - Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

    - Rain chances trend downward while temperatures trend upward by
      late week into next weekend.

Elevated PoPs will remain the rule through midweek before any
appreciable changes to the ongoing static weather pattern. To open
the forecast period, the Bermuda high remains situated across the
western Atlantic while a mirroring ridge extends from the desert
Southwest. Meanwhile, a weak but persistent trough extends southward
in between, allowing southwest flow aloft to continue pumping plenty
of deep moisture across the area. Diurnally-enhanced PoPs will be
highest across the northwest half of the area each afternoon as this
area will remain closer to the influence of the trough and the
Atlantic ridge will provide some degree of suppression in southern
and eastern zones. As has been the case lately, locally heavy
rainfall will remain a concern given above-normal PWATs with any
training or slow-moving thunderstorms presenting localized flash
flooding concerns. Widespread severe thunderstorms are also not
anticipated, though strong downburst winds will present an isolated
strong to severe threat each afternoon and evening.

By Thursday into Friday, a weak cold front will progress into the
Tennessee Valley as its parent low lifts across the Great Lakes into
Ohio and New England/Quebec. This front looks to dip into the area
on Friday and become stationary, perhaps drying things out a bit
across north Georgia, though at least chance PoPs remain in the
forecast on Friday. By the the weekend, a stout upper ridge is still
favored to anchor over the Southeast. While some degree of isolated
to widely scattered convection may remain possible beneath this
"dirty" ridge, overall convective coverage should trend downward
during this time while temperatures trend upward.

Speaking of temperatures, highs will initially range from the upper
80s in north Georgia to low 90s in Middle Georgia through the week.
However, probabilities increase for highs in the low to mid 90s
areawide by the weekend as the aforementioned ridge builds.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s through the work week will keep
apparent temperatures a few degrees above air temperature, though
values remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Rinse and repeat forecast today with low ceilings expected ~9z.
Should stay ~900 ft but there is a low chance high end LIFR could
develop from 09-12z. Skies should scatter out again to MVFR and
then to VFR by 16-17z before thunderstorms affect the area again
this evening with the best timing being from 19-23z. There is a
low chance thunderstorms could linger until 01z. After that
expecting skies to scatter out again for tomorrow overnight.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  71  88 /  10  50  50  50
Atlanta         71  88  73  88 /  20  50  40  50
Blairsville     64  83  66  81 /  30  60  60  70
Cartersville    69  89  71  86 /  20  50  50  60
Columbus        72  91  73  90 /  20  50  20  50
Gainesville     70  87  71  85 /  20  50  50  60
Macon           71  91  73  90 /  20  40  20  40
Rome            69  88  71  87 /  20  50  40  70
Peachtree City  69  89  71  88 /  10  40  40  50
Vidalia         72  92  74  92 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Hernandez