451
FXUS62 KFFC 292321
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
721 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Dry conditions continue through most of the week, before rain
    chances return late week and over the weekend.

  - Some strong thunderstorms are possible on Sunday with storm
    total rainfall amounts of several inches possible over the
    weekend.

  - Warming trend back to above normal temperatures this afternoon
    and through the late week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A transition in the upper level flow pattern is underway as the
period begins. Low pressure off of coastal Maine continues to move
away to the northeast as a mid-level ridge extending from the lower
Mississippi Rover Valley through the Great Lakes continues to
advance eastward. Surface high pressure associated with the ridge
is spreading a weak wedge into north Georgia, with E/SE flow
having set up over the forecast area as a result. Increasing
1000-500 mb thicknesses under the ridge and mostly clear and sunny
skies will lead to temperatures rising into the mid 80s across
the majority of north Georgia (upper 70s in the far northeast
mountains) and upper 80s to low 90s in central Georgia this
afternoon. As the aforementioned surface high moves offshore into
the Atlantic, the continued southeasterly flow on the back side of
the high will promote gradual advection of moisture into east-
central Georgia. With strong diurnal mixing under the ridge,
recovery has been slow so far, with dewpoints in the mid 40s to
low 50s across all but east- central Georgia. Minimum RH values
will range from 25-30% across the majority of the area this
afternoon.

Wednesday morning will begin with temperatures ranging from mid 50s
in far north Georgia to the mid 60s in east-central Georgia. With
the ridge centered over the Southeast and moisture continuing to
increase, conditions will feel definitively more "summer-like."
Highs on Wednesday will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s in all
but the mountains, which will be about 8-12 degrees above
climatological normals for the last day of September. The influence
of the ridge will also inhibit rain chances through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

As we approach the weekend, the ridge will begin to break down and
southerly flow will begin to pull moisture back into the CWA. This
will bring chances for thunderstorms back up to between 25-35%
during the afternoon on Friday with more widespread thunderstorms
likely through the weekend. Temperatures should remain moderated to
the upper 80s and lower 90s, though that still has them running 5-10
degrees above normal for this time of year.

We`ll need to keep an eye on Sunday, as the best dynamics move
through the area for stronger thunderstorms. The ECMWF builds in
plenty of instability and decent low level shear, though the GFS
tends to keep a majority of the bulk shear off to the north.
Regardless of severe weather, the concern for flash flooding will
persist through the weekend and into early next week before the
front finally clears out. The amount of rain we get will likely
change as the forecast window gets closer, but the NBM is calling
for up to 5 inches total from Friday to late Tuesday; mainly along
and north of I-85.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR through TAF period. East winds will go near calm tonight.
Mostly SKC conditions. Winds pick back up by 15-16Z tomorrow from
east, 5-9 kts. Moisture will begin slowly returning to the area,
so some cu may be possible, but best chances look to be further
into central Georgia where better moisture will reside. No other
wx/vsby impacts expected through period.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         60  88  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     54  82  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    59  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        61  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     58  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           62  91  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            57  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  58  89  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         68  91  68  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Lusk