533
FXUS62 KFFC 281852
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Key Messages:

 - Generally dry conditions with light winds through the afternoon.

 - Showers are possible over central Georgia starting early
   tomorrow morning.

 - Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s, and
   daytime highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

Dry air remains in place across northern and central Georgia. The
12Z upper air sounding for FFC showed precipitable water value at
1.03 inches, which is below the 25th percentile, climatologically. A
large dry layer is in place, between 825 hPa and 525 hPa, with a
smaller one below 900 hPa. Aloft, confluence at 250 hPa will also
inhibit convective development. Therefore, the rainfall potential
remains low through the evening.

Additional moisture is expected to gradually filter into the area
from the west tonight into tomorrow. Some isolated showers are
possible starting early tomorrow morning over parts of central
Georgia. There was little change to the previous forecast, though
PoPs were adjusted downward slightly for tomorrow. The layer of dry
air in the low- to mid-levels is expected to persist, despite the
erosion from the moisture being advected in. The confluence at 250
hPa is expected to weaken; some weak diffluence may even develop
over Georgia. This will result in a very modest decrease in the
inhibition of convective potential/development. There is a slight
chance for thunderstorms, which would likely remain isolated,
starting tomorrow afternoon over central Georgia. The potential
for thunderstorms will likely gradually spread northward during
the late evening/overnight Friday night. This risk will be
limited, and PoPs for the Atlanta metro area are around 30% or
less through Friday night.

Temperatures will remain somewhat below climatological normals over
north Georgia, including through the Atlanta metro, overnight
tonight, with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s; over central Georgia
overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to near 70. Daytime highs
tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

CRS

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will are expected in north
   and central Georgia this weekend.

 - Below average temperatures are expected this weekend and next
   week.

The Weekend:

The primary forecast challenge for the weekend centers on the rain
chances for Saturday, due largely to an unusual degree of dichotomy
between the GEFS and EPS. Variations between the two global
ensembles are highest across north Georgia (including the Atlanta
Metro). Seventeen of the 30 GEFS members keep the the Metro dry on
Saturday and the overall GEFS mean suggests less than 0.05 inches of
rain for the entire weekend. The EPS members have a very different
take with 46 of the 50 members producing rain in the Metro Saturday.
This leads to higher progged precipitation amounts via the EPS, with
the ensembles mean hovering near half an inch, and several members
suggesting more than an inch of precipitation. A look through
several of other ensembles guidance options provides little clarity.
The Canadian Ensemble follows the GEFS, while the EPS AI
unsurprisingly follows the EPS. The primary reason for the variation
in the guidance appears to be the intensity of a shortwave that is
expected in Georgia Saturday. The EPS guidance leans towards a more
potent and northern track for the shortwave, while the GEFS prefers
a weaker and more southerly track. Given the uncertainty our
forecast remains a blend of the two, with 30 to 45 percent rain
chances across the northern third of Georgia. For central Georgia
either solution would likely lead to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, and thus our forecast rain chances are higher (50 to
65 percent). Some shower and thunderstorm potential should linger
into Sunday, tough with the shortwave drifting south towards Florida
any rainfall should be less widespread (compared to Saturday).

Temperatures on Saturday, will be dictated by the degree of cloud
cover and rainfall. If the EPS proves correct then widespread high
temperatures in the upper 70s can be anticipated in north and
central Georgia. A more southerly shortwave track and less rainfall,
as favored by the GEFS, would suggest low to mid 80s in north
Georgia and low 80s/upper 70s in central Georgia. Confidence in the
temperature outlook for Sunday is higher, with widespread low 80s
expected for the entire region.

Next Week:

The large scale pattern for next week as projected by the EPS and
GEFS is fairly similar and has been consistent from run to run.
Giving us moderate to high confidence in continued troughing over
Eastern U.S. A shortwave moving out of Canada during the middle of
the week should reinforce the trough. This pattern favors near to
slightly below average temperature over the course of the workweek.
So look for 70 degree highs in the mountains and lower 80s elsewhere
in north and central Georgia between Monday and Friday. Overall this
pattern also suggests a preference for dry weather, with any
rainfall chances being associated with weak shortwaves riding
through the broader west/northwest flow. One of these may occur
Monday, but beyond that confidence in in shortwaves occurring is
very low due to high model spread. Severe weather and or flooding
are very unlikely next week.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR through TAF period. SCT Cu deck around 035-050 through
afternoon. Visby and cig restrictions are not expected, though
isolated SHRA are possible near CSG early tomorrow morning into
midday. Winds remain light, generally out of the west into the
evening - though some variation is likely. Winds return east
overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High

CRS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  85  63  81 /   0   0  20  30
Atlanta         65  87  66  81 /  10  10  30  40
Blairsville     54  81  58  78 /   0   0  10  30
Cartersville    60  87  62  84 /   0  10  20  30
Columbus        68  85  68  80 /  10  30  40  60
Gainesville     60  85  63  82 /   0   0  20  30
Macon           67  86  68  80 /  10  20  30  50
Rome            58  87  62  84 /   0  10  20  30
Peachtree City  63  86  65  81 /  10  20  30  40
Vidalia         69  87  68  83 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...CRS