259
FXUS62 KFFC 221137
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
637 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

 - A high impact ice storm is anticipated in northern Georgia this
   weekend. A Winter Weather Watch is in effect from 1 AM
   Saturday through Monday at 10 AM.

 - Significant impacts to travel are anticipated over the weekend
   due to both ice and snow, and power outages may occur.

 - Now is the time to review your families emergency plan and make
   preparations for hazardous weather.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Broad upper level troughing remains in place across the eastern
CONUS as the morning begins. A shortwave rotating around the base of
this trough is helping push a cold front into far northwest Georgia.
Scattered showers are ongoing in portions of north Georgia ahead of
this front, though remain light at this time as they struggle to
overcome a layer of dry air near the surface. Over the next few
hours, this dry layer will erode and more rain will be able to make
it to the surface. Low temperatures this morning will be noticeably
warmer than the previous couple of days, largely in the upper 30s to
low 40s, with some mid 30s in the highest elevations of far
northeast Georgia. This should prevent any wintry precipitation this
morning and keep precip all liquid throughout the day. As the front
continues to advance southward, scattered to numerous showers will
persist through the day. Rain chances will be highest roughly along
and north of the I-85 corridor, with progressively lower chances to
the south and east. Rainfall accumulations through tonight will
remain fairly light, between 0.25-0.5 inch along and north of I-85,
with lower amounts to the south. High temperatures today will be a
function of the front`s progression, and are expected to be mainly
in low 50s in north Georgia and upper 50s to as high as 70 in
central Georgia.

Conditions will be similar on Friday as the frontal boundary stalls
across central Georgia. Another round of scattered showers can be
anticipated as a weak disturbance aloft overruns the stationary
front. Showers will be most likely in central Georgia and are
expected to be light once again, with totals less than 0.25 inch. In
far north Georgia, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid
30s by sunset on Friday, at which point a light rain/freezing rain
mix could develop. However, ice accumulations are not expected until
the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Ice Storm Overview

The forecast for the weekend remains challenging with multiple low
pressure systems developing, strong southerly moisture advection and
an impressive (near 1050 mb) Arctic high moving in from the north.
As all of these features come together a major winter storm will
develop in the Eastern U.S. Impacts are expected for especially in
north Georgia. Depending on how things play out with the wedge,
impacts may extent into parts of central Georgia. A Winter Storm
Watch remains in place from 1 AM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for
northern Georgia. The primary concern within the Watch area is the
potential for significant ice accumulations, leading to treacherous
travel and widespread power outages. Arctic air should move in as
the event concludes early next week. This may keep temperatures at
or below freezing for several days and extend the period of impacts
for north Georgia early next week.

Precipitation Onset on Saturday

After some rainfall on Friday a break in the precipitation is
anticipated as the second area of low pressure intensifies over the
Southern Plains and ArkLaTex region. This break should occur
Saturday morning (if model trends hold) as the wedge intensifies in
response to a developing low along the Carolina Coastline and the
surface high building into the Northeast. The airmass that will push
into northeast Georgia with the wedge looks very dry, with some
model runs suggesting surface dewpoints in the teens. This guidance
is lower than the base NBM guidance, and this suggests a potential
bias correction issue in the NBM that may be impacting how it is
handling the wedge. In practical terms for the forecast this dry
airmass suggests that the precipitation may restart on Saturday as a
mix of sleet and freezing rainfall (as opposed to rain) due to
evaporative cooling. This potential period of dry weather has
potential implications for road treatment plans. It also raises the
possibility of travelers being caught off guard by the sudden onset
of wintry precipitation, especially in north Georgia Saturday
afternoon.

Wedge Intensity Over the Weekend

Trends in the guidance, particularly the ECMWF, towards a warmer
event have received quite a bit attention in the last 24 hours.
While these trends are are potentially positive as they would
support a rapid erosion of the wedge and less widespread ice
accumulation in Georgia, they represent only a portion of the
guidance. About half the EPS members keep temperatures in Atlanta 20
degree colder than the ECMWF on Sunday, while half the GEFS members
keep the Atlanta near or below freezing through Sunday. These
inconsistencies reflect the the models struggle to resolve the wedge
and its potential strength. Historically models overestimate the
ability of strong mid-level WAA to erode the wedge. This has been
particularly true when the wedge is being reinforced by dry CAA and
evaporative cooling. Given these considerations, we seem to be
trending towards an event where we start off with a fairly
widespread mix of light freezing rain and sleet on Saturday. As the
southerly flow intensifies Saturday night and Sunday it may erode
the southern edge of the wedge while the core of the wedges strength
holds true in northeast Georgia. This would lead to contracting
temperature gradients and a potential switch over to rain in parts
of northwest and central Georgia. It wouldn`t be surprising if
temperatures gradients between Athens and Macon exceeded 30 degrees
on Sunday! Where the wedge traditionally holds strong in northeast
Georgia icing may continue through the entire day on Sunday.
Significant and very impactful ice accumulations of 0.25 to 1.25
inches may occur. As such the greatest risk for widespread power
outages, tree damage and major travel impacts appears to be focused
on northeast Georgia. A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding
potential ice accumulations along an arc from Rome to Atlanta to
Augusta. How much ice this area receives will depend entirely on how
strong the wedge is. Some risk of freezing rain remains for central
Georgia, especially Saturday and Saturday night, but at this time
the trends for this area suggest a decreasing potential for
significant impacts.

Significant snowfall is unlikely with this event, unless it occurs
during a brief window Sunday night and Monday morning. The main
feature hindering snowfall should be the very strong warm nose
aloft, which will melt any flakes and force them to become either
sleet, freezing rain or rain before they reach the surface. To this
end our forecast continues to trend towards little to no snowfall,
with ice as the primary impact. Even the higher peaks of the
mountains shouldn`t see much snow with this event. There may even be
times when it is raining at elevations over 3500 ft, with freezing
rain or sleet occurring below 3500 ft. A decidedly topsy turvey
precipitation distribution.

Cold Weather & Lingering Impacts Early Next Week

A Arctic high will settle over the Southeast early next week. As
this feature moves southward it will encounter potentially
significant snowpack over the Tennessee Valley. This should help it
maintain its intensity and potentially bring the coldest
temperatures of the winter thus far to parts of Georgia.
Temperatures may struggle to get above freezing in north Georgia
Monday and Tuesday. For any areas with significant power outages
this could lead to an extend period of significant impacts once the
precipitation ends. This could apply to both travel conditions,
clean up operations and the potential for pipes to freeze in
buildings without power. The risk would be highest on Monday night
and Tuesday morning when widespread low temperatures in the single
digits and teen are possible under fair skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

As a cold front moves through north Georgia, -SHRA and MVFR
ceilings have spread into the ATL sites and AHN as the period
begins. IFR ceilings and moderate SHRA will be possible at times
between 14-18Z at ATL, with a TEMPO being maintained for this time
window. Prevailing IFR is then anticipated between 18-23Z before a
relative lull in the rain and improvement back to MVFR tonight.
Ceilings are VFR and will be largely between 050-070 at CSG/MCN,
though -SHRA and MVFR level clouds will be possible at CSG during
the morning hours. Winds will be NW at 4-7 kts to start the
morning, and guidance is becoming more consistent in showing a
shift to NE by 17-18Z and through the remainder of the period.
Coverage of precip is expected to increase once again on Friday
morning after 08Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          51  42  51  33 /  60  50  60  30
Atlanta         50  44  51  36 /  70  50  60  30
Blairsville     50  35  48  28 /  40  40  30  20
Cartersville    51  40  49  33 /  70  40  40  20
Columbus        63  48  62  43 /  40  40  60  30
Gainesville     51  43  51  33 /  60  50  50  20
Macon           64  45  62  42 /  20  30  60  30
Rome            54  40  51  32 /  70  40  30  20
Peachtree City  52  43  53  37 /  70  50  60  30
Vidalia         71  46  71  45 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning
for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-035>039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...King