085
FXUS62 KFFC 240742
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 223 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

 - An Ice Storm Warning is in effect from Saturday into Monday for
   most of north Georgia due to an impending high-impact ice
   storm. Widespread power outages and difficult to impossible
   travel are expected across this area. Additionally, the Winter
   Storm Watch in effect elsewhere has been upgraded to a Winter
   Weather Advisory.

 - Dangerously cold nighttime temperatures from Monday to
   potentially Thursday will be an added concern for those still
   without power and vulnerable populations. Tuesday morning will
   be of particular concern, when "feels like" temperatures are
   forecast to be in the single digits for many across north and
   central Georgia.

 - Now is the time to review your family`s emergency plan and make
   preparations for hazardous weather.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

What Has Changed:

The Winter Storm Watch across the central portion of the County
Warning Area (CWA) has been UPGRADED to a Winter Weather Advisory.
Pike, Lamar, and Monroe Counties were added to this Advisory, as
a light glazing of ice could make for hazardous travel.

Ice Storm Overview:

Our confidence remains high that a significant ice storm will
impact much of north Georgia this weekend. The BOTTOM LINE UP
FRONT is that ice accumulations of at least a quarter inch are
probable within the Ice Storm Warning area, with high confidence
in peak accumulations in the textbook "wedge" area (cold air
damming area) -- the northeast quadrant of the CWA. Across this
area, widespread ice accumulations of a half inch to three-
quarters inch are probable, with localized amounts approaching one
inch. Also want to note that the foothills and mountains across
north Georgia (including those in far northwest Georgia) are
likely areas for maximized ice accumulations, due to orographic
lift. Those within the Ice Storm Warning should prepare for
widespread and long-lasting power outages (as winds will be
gusting to 20-30 mph) as well as difficult to impossible travel.
Note that the Ice Storm Warning begins this morning (Saturday) at
7 AM for far northwest Georgia, to capture the potential for early
onset of light frozen precipitation. The Ice Storm Warning begins
at 1 PM today for the remainder of north Georgia, as precip
spreads eastward. Those in the Winter Weather Advisory that was
issued earlier this morning should be prepared for a light glazing
to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation, which could make
travel hazardous.

Forecasting the Wedge:

We have talked a lot in previous Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs)
about the wedge/cold air damming footprint and strength, and its
impact on the severity of this ice storm. A skilled blend of high-
resolution model guidance was used to arrive at the temperature
and dew point forecasts through the short term period, to capture
the staying power of the wedge as precip reinforces its
characteristic cold, surface-based airmass. The result is a
forecast largely unchanged from yesterday afternoon`s shift -- the
wedge and associated freezing rain (and some sleet) spreading
southward and westward tonight through Sunday morning. The wedge
should begin to erode along its southern and western fringes on
Sunday afternoon and evening as Gulf low pressure shifts
northeastward across the area. That said, for parts of northeast
Georgia in the core of the wedge airmass, temperatures may not get
much above freezing (if at all) on Sunday afternoon. This may
include cities/towns such as Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Gainesville,
Suwanee, Lawrenceville, and Athens.

Central Georgia Thunderstorms on Sunday:

Advection of warm, moist air courtesy of the aforementioned Gulf
low may support thunderstorms across central Georgia on Sunday
when coupled with strong winds/speed shear aloft from a strong
trough. The potential for strong or severe storms remains
conditional, meaning that the potential will depend on how far
north the warm, humid air surges into the CWA. Potential hazards
would include damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

The Short Version:

A very cold airmass will settle into the southeast on Monday.
Cold temperatures will remain in place through the entire week and
potentially into the weekend as yet another cold airmass filters
into the area from the north. High temperatures are in the 30s and
40s for most each day. Overnight lows are concerning - teens and
20s will be in place for many areas each night. Of particular
concern is Tuesday morning, where "feels like" temperatures will
be in the low teens to single digits (and possibly lower in some
areas up north, especially in the mountains). Cold Weather
Advisories and potentially Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed on
Tuesday morning. Finally, some signs of another potential winter
event at the tail end of the forecast starting next week, but
waaaaay too early to talk about anything with confidence given run
to run variability. One storm at a time please, atmosphere.

Discussion:

On the one hand, the long term is the "easier" part of the
discussion given the winter storm being discussed above. On the
other, despite the lack of precipitating weather (at least until
the very tail end - we will get there), there are still some
impactful things to discuss.

As the cold front sweeps through the area tomorrow night, precip
will quickly come to an end behind it and cold air will rush into
the area. Temperatures will fall into the 20s and some teens
across north Georgia and parts of central Georgia (areas of east
central Georgia may take a bit more time for the front to clear).
Highs on Monday will be impacted by ice and potential sleet
accumulations, and how much of those remain behind. Melting will
keep temperatures lower as heat goes into melting the ice.
Important to note that impacts from the ice storm will very likely
remain into Monday in some areas and impact morning commutes.
Even if all areas experience a switch over to rain, the cold front
will ensure that temperatures fall back below freezing, locking
in anything that is still in place.

Aloft, the trough that brought our wintry weather will phase with
another wave quickly diving out of the midwest and into the
southeast on Monday. This will bring another reinforcing shot of
the cold air as AVA pushes the cold, Arctic surface high even
further south. Morning temperatures are currently forecast to be
in the single digits to low teens across north Georgia, moving up
to a "balmy" upper teens to low 20s across much of central
Georgia. Factor in the potential for there to be at least some
light NW winds occurring, and feels like temperatures will drop
even lower. Unless significant changes occur, expect to see cold
weather advisories and/or extreme cold watch/warnings hoisted in
the coming days.

Cold air sticks around and warms slightly thanks to sunshine and
being in the South through Wednesday and Thursday. Upper level
system looks progged to swing across the NE and push another cold
front through the area Thursday night into Friday that should be
dry, but just reinforce our already chilly airmass. Some
uncertainty is noted as to whether or not that airmass makes it
this far south - GEFS at ATL for 12Z Friday has the 10th
percentile at 16F, median at 24F and 90th at 28F. NBM forecast is
leaning towards the colder end. This airmass sticks around into
the weekend, where things have the possibility of getting
interesting once again.

This is the part of the AFD where I get to do my favorite PSA -
friends don`t let friends share single model runs of 10:1 snow
totals 8 to 9 days out on social media. From any model. Yes, I am
judging you for posting that GFS run. Anyway, while the
operational version of the GFS keeps posting varying fun totals,
the GEFS puts the probability of an inch across areas around
15-20%. The probability of 4" is basically 4%...a single member,
most likely. So, let`s just pump the brakes on talking about the
next storm, and wait for a bit more model consistency (the Euro
ensemble, for instance, locates probabilities a bit further north
than the American). We`ve got bigger fish to fry this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

MVFR to low-VFR CIGs will persist through the day. Scattered -SHRA
are expected late this afternoon into the evening (PROB30 at ATL
from 23z to 05z) and will give way to frozen precip overnight.
Have -FZRA beginning at ATL at 05z at this time, but the onset
time may be tweaked in subsequent TAF updates. -FZRAPL is
currently forecast at the other metro sites and AHN, with -SHRA
only at MCN and CSG. CIGS and VIS will drop in response to the
precip -- likely to IFR and MVFR, respectively. ESE to ENE winds
will be 5-13 kts sustained with gusts to 25 kts. Strong winds
within a few kilometers of the surface will bear watching early
Sunday morning due to LLWS potential.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on timing of transition from -SHRA to -FZRA.
Medium confidence on CIGs. High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          41  28  35  27 /  30 100 100  80
Atlanta         44  29  40  24 /  30 100 100  60
Blairsville     35  26  40  17 /  50 100 100  60
Cartersville    42  30  40  20 /  30 100 100  40
Columbus        53  40  59  29 /  20  80  90  70
Gainesville     39  25  33  25 /  40 100 100  60
Macon           52  33  52  31 /  20  70  90  90
Rome            41  31  42  24 /  50 100 100  30
Peachtree City  47  30  47  24 /  30  90 100  60
Vidalia         53  38  61  45 /  10  30  40 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Monday for
GAZ001>004-011.

Winter Storm Watch from 7 AM EST this morning through Monday
morning for GAZ001>009-011-012-019.

Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday
for GAZ005>009-012>016-019>025-027-030>039-043>051-055-057-062.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Monday for GAZ041-042-053-054-056-058>061-068-070>076.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Martin