464
FXUS62 KFFC 080613
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
213 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures Friday will give way to a warming trend
  through the weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms will return on Saturday and Sunday,
  with another 0.5-2 inches of rain forecast through the weekend.

- A few storms may become strong in portions of central Georgia
  Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Northwest flow continues near the surface bringing some post-frontal
dry air into the region. Upper level flow will continue out of the
WSW from the mid levels up (subtropical jet). Our next system comes
with a descending shortwave round the polar trough, currently over
the Great Lakes, and multiple packets of energy breaking off the cut-
off low over the southwest CONUS. The combination of these energy
packets will help to reinforce the boundary which currently
stretches across the southern portion of The Gulf states. Models
continue to struggle with resolving the next surge in this band of
lift, however the next chances at showers starts as the front moves
northward as a  on Saturday. This introduces some PoPs across the
southern CWA. The greatest convection going associated with this
will be south of the CWA so not expecting too much out of this
initial push. The next chances for heavier showers and thunderstorms
will come from diurnal heating to the west and transverse eastward
along the front. Instability and shear appear modest with the
Saturday night and Sunday morning convection. The probability of at
least 500 J/Kg of MUCAPE (likely elevated slightly) and 35 kts of
shear support the marginal risk for severe. That said, this set up
has a decent chance of southern convection cutting off energy flow
from the south. This would lead to more shower conditions than
thunderstorms.

Overall, there remains a near continuous potential for showers and
thunderstorms across the southern CWA from Saturday morning onward.
The real question becomes when/where we could see the heaviest and
could we see some severe.

Temperatures through the short term remain in the 70s to low 80s
with lows in the 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Uncertainty reigns at the beginning of the long term on Saturday
night. CAMs that extend into this range are truly all over the
place, with huge timing differences and convective outcomes across
the CWA. Several models show MCS structure organizing across MS/AL
and quickly moving to the south, which could clip the Southeastern
portions of the CWA around the Columbus area. Others bring some
convection through during the afternoon into the evening that
lingers into the long term period across areas as far north as the
Atlanta metro. The uncertainty is likely being driven by challenges
models are having with 2 subtle features - a shortwave within the
broader upper level trough that is pushing through the area, and an
ejecting cutoff low out of southern Texas that is beginning to shear
and interact with the upper level jet. If forced to pick, would lean
towards a HRRR solution that may be a bit drier to start for the CWA
on Saturday night into Sunday, but much is going to depend on early
convective evolution and confidence is low.

Another wave embedded in the deeper upper level low over the eastern
portions of NA will rotate through the CWA Sunday into Monday
morning. This will drive another round of showers and some possible
thunderstorms as moisture continues to be brought into the area
under broad upper level support. Cold front will likley push through
the area early next week on Monday, bringing a drier start to the
week and another push of seasonably cool air in north and central
Georgia, keeping highs in the 70s and pushing lows into the 40s and
50s. Slow warming trend continues into the midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR thru most of period. Winds mostly 7kts or less turn generally
NE Fri morning and continue to SSW by aftn. Cigs largely SCT-BKN
at 15-25kft with ocnl cu/stratus at 3-5kft. Cigs fall Fri night
with shra and iso -tsra near southern sites and ATL near end of
respective TAF cycle.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence precip onset time Fri night.
High confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  55  75  58 /   0  40  40  30
Atlanta         73  57  76  60 /   0  60  60  30
Blairsville     69  48  74  53 /   0  10  10  20
Cartersville    74  53  78  56 /   0  50  40  30
Columbus        76  58  77  61 /   0  80  80  50
Gainesville     71  55  75  59 /   0  30  30  20
Macon           76  58  77  60 /   0  80  80  40
Rome            74  51  78  54 /   0  40  30  20
Peachtree City  74  55  76  58 /   0  70  70  40
Vidalia         79  62  79  65 /   0  50  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...SM