165
FXUS62 KFFC 161854
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day
   with the main threats being gusty winds (40-50mph), and
   frequent lightning.

 - Saturated soils and additional rounds of rainfall may lead to
   an increased risk for localized flooding.

Another day, another round of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, though coverage may be more isolated to scattered
than in recent days, especially across north GA. As has been the
case for the past several days, the primary driver of this
pattern has been a large ridge of high pressure off the coast of
the Southeast US. The other noteworthy feature at this time is an
upper level shortwave trough moving across the lower Mississippi
Valley. Deep south-southwest flow continues to pump warm and humid
air across Georgia, with PWAT values ranging around 1.7-2.0". With
better forcing for convection off to our west associated with the
shortwave, today`s shower and thunderstorm coverage will be a bit
lower. Still, there will be plenty of moisture and instability to
support isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms through
the evening hours, with primary threats being gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. After days of locally
heavy rainfall, some areas have saturated soils, so if those areas
are hit with additional rounds of showers or storms we could see
a localized flooding threat.

Tomorrow, the aforementioned shortwave will continue to push east
across the TN Valley, but gradually flatten/weaken as it does so.
With the environment otherwise remaining relatively unchanged
compared to today, the forcing from the shortwave will bring
better shower and thunderstorm chances, especially across
northwest GA where forcing is greatest. Deep-layer wind shear will
also increase a bit across this area (up to 20-25kts), so there
is potential for a few severe thunderstorms to develop or move in
from E/NE AL during the afternoon and evening. Primary hazards
with any storms would be gusty/damaging winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rainfall with a localized flood threat for hardest hit
areas.

Temperatures will be warm and humid each day, with highs reaching
the upper 80s across north GA, and low 90s across central GA. Dewpoints
in the low-mid 70s will make things feel about 5 degrees higher
than that. Lows will only fall to the low 70s.

Culver

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Key Messages:

 - Rising temps and heat indices as storm coverage lessens.

 - Localized storms could still create flooding concerns through
   the long term.

By Wednesday, the surface to upper level ridge centered just off
the FL/GA coast is keeping GA in moist Southwesterly flow to begin
the extended periods. This ridge is expected to strengthen slowly
through the weekend and into next week becoming the dominate
weather feature controlling the pattern over the southeastern U.S.
This ridge will also help to cap convective activity through day
7 but in turn we will also see temps and heat indices increasing
too. Looking at 60% to 80% PoPs at the beginning of the forecast
slowly decreasing to 20% to 40% by day 7. Also, by the time we get
towards the end of the work week we`ll likely be seeing triple
digit heat indices for the first time this year as temps rise into
the mid 90s and dewpoints stay in the 70s. The models don`t show
any sign of relief and the only chance we have of seeing a
temporary reprieve will come in the form of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

Continual SW flow out off the Gulf will fuel not just the
humidity but our diurnal pattern. Afternoon thunderstorms are
expected through the rest of the work week but by Saturday the
Euro is picking up on a bit of a pattern change. As the surface
ridge strengthens the upper level ridge moves a bit further north
into the Mid Atlantic states putting us in east upper level flow.
This will bring in Atlantic moisture instead of Gulf moisture
which should be a little less moisture latent.

One of the big concerns we have this week will be flooding. With
dewpoints this high, our afternoon storms are likely to be
efficient rain makers. Precipitable water values (PWs) remain in
the 1.5" to 2.5" range through the periods. If storms line up over
the same area day after day, we could see some isolated flash
flooding or some rivers that go to flood stage.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Primarily VFR conditions through the evening, with best SHRA/TSRA
chances at CSG/MCN/AHN where TEMPOs are included. PROB30s in for
the ATL area sites. Convection could linger until around 03-04Z.
Potential for MFVR/IFR CIGs (007-015) to develop early Tue AM
(10-13Z), but guidance has been backing off on that. Winds
generally W-SW at 5-10kts or less through the period.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA chances and timing, and CIGs Tue
AM. High confidence on wind.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  71  90 /  20  60  30  30
Atlanta         71  88  72  89 /  20  60  30  40
Blairsville     65  83  65  82 /  30  80  70  70
Cartersville    70  88  71  89 /  30  70  50  60
Columbus        72  89  72  92 /  20  50  20  30
Gainesville     71  87  71  87 /  20  70  50  50
Macon           72  90  72  92 /  10  40  10  20
Rome            69  86  70  88 /  30  70  50  60
Peachtree City  71  88  71  90 /  20  60  20  30
Vidalia         74  93  74  93 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Culver