511
FXUS63 KFGF 141130
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
  Monday, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
  hazards.

- Active pattern keeps daily thunderstorm chances in the
  forecast nearly each day next week. Strong to severe storms
  are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Showers with isolated thunderstorms are currently in south
central ND this morning moving toward the east. Indications are
these showers and isolated storms hold together as they
approach the southeastern portion of ND this morning. We will
continue to monitor this area of precipitation as it moves east.
Otherwise, stratus is backing off in the northern Red River
Valley allowing for sunshine this morning. Clouds will start to
fill by in by mid to late morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...Synopsis...

Current satellite has an area of stratus across the southern
forecast area this morning, with dew point depressions near zero and
wind speeds light and variable. This brings the slight chance
of patchy dense fog this morning mainly along the I94 corridor
points south. Currently a few locations in west central
Minnesota (Douglas and Todd counties) are reporting visibility
reductions due to fog. We will continue to watch the patchy
dense fog chances through the morning hours. Otherwise,
temperatures across the area are in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Zonal flow continues across the northern plains this weekend and
into next week, with multiple chances for thunderstorms nearly each
day. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Our flow has a
slight SW component to it which will help fuel moisture and
instability into the Dakotas and Minnesota for thunderstorms.
Forcing from upper level waves moving along the flow will help
initiate the thunderstorms. The first wave moves through this
afternoon and evening bringing thunderstorms chances to the region.
The peak instability axis and moisture advection remains further
toward western North Dakota. None the less, thunderstorms are
expected across portions of the area, with a few stronger
storms possible in the Sheyenne River Valley. This area is
closest to the higher instability, moisture, and lift. Any
strong storm that develops should remain below severe limits,
but still have the potential to produce gusty winds, small hail,
and frequent lightning. The stronger instability starts to
shift further eastward Sunday and Monday as another wave shifts
through the region.

The forcing, instability, and moisture is more robust across the
area Sunday night into Monday. The best parameters will be south of
the region, but enough instability, moisture, and lift will be
present to spark isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across the
area late Sunday through Monday. Main hazards would be large hail
and damaging winds. The week ahead will be active with multiple
chances for thunderstorms nearly each day of the week. A few of
these storms have the potential to be strong or even severe. Have a
way to receive alerts this weekend and the coming week. Otherwise,
temperatures will be near seasonal throughout the week with highs in
the 70s to lower 80s.

...Severe Threat Monday...

An upper level wave moves through the region Sunday night through
Monday bringing the chance for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms to the area. A boundary sets up along the SD/ND border
late Sunday through Monday, with a trailing cold front through
South Dakota. Guidance continues to track the system through SD,
with a few members of ensembles tracking it through southern ND
and others through Nebraska. Only a few members show these
tracks through either ND or NE. Any deviation to the north would
increase chances for strong to severe thunderstorms while a
further southerly track would decrease chances.

Along and north of the boundary temperatures will reach into the
70s, with dew points in the 60s. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the boundary and ahead of the cold front, and start
out as discrete with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
threats. Atmospheric soundings show strong lapse rates of 7-8 C/km,
0-6km shear of 25-35kts, and MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg. As the
upper level wave shifts eastward thunderstorms will become more
linear and organized as mid level flow becomes parallel to the
boundary. This would unfold during the day on Monday and into
the evening hours. Primary hazards will transition from a hail
and wind threat to a damaging wind threat as the complex becomes
linear. Right now, guidance indicates areas in SD and southern
MN as having the best chances for strong to severe thunderstorms
Monday. None the less, with the strong instability, moisture,
shear, and lift across our forecast area there is a chance for
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday through
Monday. Have a way to receive alerts this weekend and into
Monday for the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms.

...Active Pattern Next Week...

As the zonal flow continues across the northern plains, we see
multiple chances for thunderstorms across multiple days. Several
waves move through during the work week bringing thunderstorm
chances, with a few strong to potential severe thunderstorms
possible. The southwesterly component in the zonal flow helps to
push moisture and instability through the area. This will help
fuel thunderstorms, and any wave moving through will help
initiate the forcing necessary for the development of those
storms. The potential is there for the zonal flow to continue
post work week and into the following weekend across the area
furthering our chances for thunderstorms within the northern
plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Stratus continues to affect FAR this morning with MVFR
conditions. Ceilings improve for FAR by the mid afternoon, but
go back to MVFR near the end of the TAF period. This is
associated with a large area of clouds moving in from the
southwest. Rain will move in from the west by the afternoon
hours for each location, with the potential for a few isolated
thunderstorms for DVL, GFK, TVF, and FAR later this evening and
into the overnight hours. Otherwise, winds are light and
variable and will go southeasterly at 10kts by mid morning.
Ceilings go MVFR for DVL and BJI near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Spender