458
FXUS63 KFGF 172335
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a medium chance for rain between Sunday night and
  Tuesday morning. Gusty winds accompany this chance.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Much of the rain/drizzle has retreated to north of the
international border, so lowered POPs to just a some slight
chances near Lake of the Woods. Stratus persisting over the far
northern RRV into northwestern MN, but much of the central
portions of the CWA have seen some clearing. More mid and high
cloud expected to move in from the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...Synopsis...

Matured and stacked upper low is viewable on satellite over
southeast MB/northwest ON, providing light rain/mist near the
international border along with breezy conditions area-wide.
This synoptic feature is amid broader longwave upper troughing
over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. A shortwave
trough is also viewable near the southern Canadian Rockies and
adjacent Prairie Provinces. This synoptic feature will traverse
east/southeast across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Saturday, bringing a small chance for light rain across the area
as well as continued breezy conditions.

Sunday into next week, ensemble guidance strongly favors an
overall progressive pattern with upper wave packets traversing
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest in a generally west to
east fashion. One of these packets features a hybrid/clipper-
like system progged to move through the region between late
Sunday and early Tuesday. This will provide a medium chance for
rain across the region along with gusty winds. This could also
bring the season`s first snowflakes. More details on these
below.

Getting into mid to late next week, ensemble guidance suggests
progressive pattern slows with amplifying upper ridge amplifies
in central CONUS coupled with amplifying upper troughing from
near the Hudson Bay into Great Lakes region. There is uncertainty
in location and amplitude of each synoptic feature this time.
Should the upper ridging be more of the dominant feature to
influence our region, above average temperatures are favored;
whereas more influence of the upper trough would promote cooler,
more seasonable temperatures. In either scenario, overall dry
conditions are favored, although some light precipitation will
be possible under influence of upper trough.

...Chance for rain and gusty winds early next week...

Ensemble and deterministic guidance vary to some degree in the
strength and track of this hybrid/clipper-like system to move
through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest between Sunday
night and Tuesday morning. This will bring a medium (40%) chance
for precipitation.

Should the system move through stronger/further south, chance
for more widespread and slightly higher QPF amounts increases.
In this scenario, precip amounts would reach into the 0.25 to
1.0 inch range. A stronger/further south system would also
serve to drag colder air behind the system southward behind it.
This would allow the opportunity for snow to become possible on
the western/northern flanks of the precipitation shield near
its deformation zone upon its departure. Should this occur and
the system move through our area overnight, snow will certainly
be the realm of possibility. Should snow occur, impacts will be
minimal due to the snow`s inability to accumulate thanks to
seasonably warm ground temperature as well as the likely
transient nature of snow. Any potential impact from snowfall
would be from reduced visibility, something that remains unknown
at this time due to low predictability in mesoscale features
like the deformation zone and subtle, but influential
temperature differences near it.

Should the system move through weaker/further north, lower
coverage and lesser amounts of QPF will be favored, with no more
than quarter of an inch of precipitation. This would also
markedly lower the chance for snow due to overall warmer
temperatures and less forcing within our area.

Either scenario would still result in gusty winds across the
region, which may reach advisory-criteria/exceed 45 mph. Highest
winds are currently forecast for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Some MVFR stratus hanging around just north of the MN airports,
and KTVF and KBJI both remain on the edge of VFR/MVFR. Expecting
some period of MVFR before improving late tonight or tomorrow
morning. The ND TAF sites should remain VFR with mid and high
clouds moving in from the west. Winds will pick up from the
northwest tomorrow with some gusts above 20 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR