996
FXUS63 KFGF 070517
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1117 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern with several weak systems this weekend and
  early next week, bringing light snow chances. 50 percent
  chance of over an inch of snow in northwestern Minnesota
  Monday.

- Stronger low coming in on Tuesday, with a 70 percent chance
  for at least minor impacts and some mixed precipitation
  possible in southeastern North Dakota and west central
  Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Snow continues to taper in the south with clearing skies. Cold
and dry air continues to filter in from the north with a
majority of the area falling below zero tonight. Light winds
should limit wind chills issues overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Light snow continues in the far southern reaches of our area and
should begin to taper off in the next several hours. Furthern
north, very cold air is filtering in from the north with a
majority of the northern Red River Valley already hitting close
to -10. Expect a very cold night as the surface high begins to
push in from the northwest. Wind chills should remain between
-20 and -25 through the overnight thanks to light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...Synopsis...

The parade of clipper shortwaves continues, with one passing by
in eastern SD currently and the next one coming into eastern MT
tonight. That weak MT shortwave will move into the Dakotas on
Sunday, and an even stronger shortwave looks to dive down out of
Manitoba into northern MN on Monday. The strongest shortwave
will come in on Tuesday, with some strong cold air advection
behind it on Wednesday. The active pattern does not let up, with
another shortwave coming through Thursday and another
reinforcing shot of cold air Friday as upper low digs into the
Upper Midwest. Northwesterly flow and cold high pressure
continue into Saturday.

...Active pattern weekend into Monday...

More rounds of light snow and flurries are expected to continue
for the rest of the weekend and beginning of the work week.
Sunday`s system continues to show fairly light QPF, which fits
with the dry layer around 850mb on model soundings. Not
saturated enough at the surface for freezing drizzle, but can`t
rule out a few flakes reaching the ground, ranging from a trace
to a few tenths of an inch. The shortwave digging out of Canada
on Monday, however, has been trending a bit more impressive,
with models showing signs of mid-level frontgenesis. It will be
fairly quick moving, and currently HREF has 50 percent
probabilities of an inch or more of snow over northwestern MN,
but much lower chances (10 to 15 percent) for over 3 inches. At
this point, another sub-advisory clipper seems most likely, but
will continue to monitor.

...More substantial snow Tuesday...

Ensembles still are in pretty good agreement on a fairly
vigorous shortwave digging into the Red River Valley on Tuesday
into Wednesday. There are still some 50 to 100 mile differences
in the exact track of the surface low, which will have an affect
on impacts. The strongest QPF chances look to be on the leading
edge of the system with warm air advection, and it is possible
that portions of our southern counties could even see some rain
mixing in with snow. A lot of questions for how much this will
impact blowability of the snow later as cold air advection kicks
in behind the system Tuesday night. Probabilistic Winter Storm
Severity Index continues to have around 70 percent chance for
minor/advisory level impacts. Chances for 6 inches or more of
snow for warning are lower, around 15 percent. However, will
have to watch with the winds picking up and blowing any new snow
around. At this point the overlap between expected strongest
winds and heaviest snow is not good, but could always have some
problems with lingering snow showers and strong winds into
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. For now, will continue to
have a general messaging strategy with what we know and what we
don`t know, and leave probability graphics for a bit later.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through 18z of the
TAF period. As the surface high moves off early tomorrow
afternoon, southeasterly winds will increase at DVL/GFK/FAR.
Accompanying this by late afternoon will be falling ceilings,
likely to MVFR depending on the track of a system moving from
northwest to southeast. Accompanying this will be a broad swath
of light snowfall that will push visibilities down to 2-4SM. The
bulk of guidance keeps the main portions of this system west,
however a few ensemble members do push the system as far east as
FAR/GFK. Should a further easterly scenario arise, expect
widespread MVFR ceilings and visibility at DVL/GFK/FAR while a
further west solution will allow for those TAF sites to remain
VFR. Regardless, the reasonable worst case scenario for these
TAF sites will be prevailing MVFR conditions with a low chance
for brief IFR conditions.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux