268
FXUS63 KFGF 031747
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1247 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few weak thunderstorms possible north of Highway 2 this
afternoon then a nice weekend in store.

- First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives
Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A cumulus field has developed across Eastern North Dakota and
West Central Minnesota along with some thin mid level stratus in
our southern counties. There are two waves going through our
area, one by the international border and the other slowly
moving towards our southern counties to create some rain chances
this afternoon with some possible embedded thunderstorms.

UPDATE
Issued at 952 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Winds are starting to gust to 25 to 35 mph along parts of the
Red River Valley and Devils Lake Basin. Clouds are also starting
to work their way across Eastern North Dakota and coming up from
the south as well. There were some brief showers near Cando and
Langdon this morning. Still a chance to see some isolated
thunderstorms with lightning as the main threat this
afternoon/evening.

UPDATE
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers continue to shift north and east affect just the
northern tier of counties along the intl border with the low
now centered in far southwest Ontario. No changes to the
forecast with all aspects on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers coming to an end for most this morning with a few remaining
along the international border yet. Clouds continue to clear quickly
behind the rain with at least a few hours of sun likley south of HWY
200 today. Along HWY 2 and north another piece of energy will
rotate around the parent trough with associated PVA and low
level cold air advection causing the formation of scattered
showers/thundershowers across northern areas this afternoon.
Resulting CAPE from the steepening lapse rates could top 100-200
j/kg. Not unreasonable to see some small hail with this though
shallow storm tops to <6km and minimal depth in the HGZ would
likely limit any hail that does occur to pea size. Not
expecting much in terms of rain accumulation this afternoon with
the 25th/75th showing 0.10" to 0.25" primarily north of HWY 2
though a few of these showers depending on the exact track of
the wave could make it a bit further south towards HWY 200.
This evening a band of h850 fgen in South Dakota will shift
east bringing shower chances across the far southern valley
into west central Minnesota though a quick forward speed should
limit amounts to under 0.25".

Shortwave ridging then begins to move in behind this pair of
Friday waves with the bulk of the clouds clearing through the
day on Saturday leaving a nice end to the weekend with highs
climbing into the 60s and an outside chance (10%) at 70s in the
valley.

The nice weather doesnt last long however as another upper low
barrels east from the rockies becoming very negatively tilted as it
reaches the Dakotas Monday. A strong pressure gradient ahead of the
low will see south/southeast surface winds climb over 20 mph
with an 80% chance for H850 winds to be over 40 kts increasing
confidence in gusty winds at the surface. This strong low level
flow wil also usher in strong moisture return from stemming from
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the low. CWASP values are currently
forecast to be the highest we have seen yet this year with CSU
ML highlighting our area in a 5% chance for severe weather.
Whether this threat materializes will remain to be seen but
between the strong kinematics and moisture return at least a few
necessary ingredients will likely be in place. Taking a step
back and just looking at QPF probs best chances for over 1" look
to be in western and central North Dakota through Wednesday AM.
25th/75th would generally result in 0.5-1.5" for the forecast
area.

Beyond Wednesday confidence decreases and clusters show a spilt
between 1) northerly flow on the backside of the exiting upper
low to the east and weak ridging to the west and 2) southwest
flow. CPC outlooks for this time period depict us as being
favored to stay below average for temps while maintaining the
wet streak with more chances for rain to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Ceilings will
float between 2000-4000ft most areas due to a wave moving
through in the Northern and southern edges of our CWA. KDVL and
KBJI will likely move between these categories. The most
uncertainty is with KGFK, KFAR, and KTVF that lie in the middle
area of these two waves and will mostly likely stay VFR.
However, Any deviation of the waves could result in MVFR
conditions and possible rain showers through this evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...MM