592
FXUS63 KFGF 300323
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1023 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue this week with
  record highs possible in some areas on Thursday.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

What some may consider as a late September heat wave truthfully
isnt that far off with records only being a few degrees a way
for Fargo and Grand Forks. While many in west central Minnesota
reached 90, Park Rapids is one of the only long term sites over
there but they did officially break their previous record of 84
set in 1999 with a high of 88 so this is indeed "record
breaking" heat for at least someone. Otherwise nothing of note
going on and the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging over the Upper Midwest will continue into the
mid-week period before starting to deamplify as we approach the
weekend. The current stalled frontal boundary draped across the
central CWA will lift north towards the international border
tonight. Trust in CAMs is pretty low, but should be at least
some isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along the
Canadian border. Surface troughing deepening to our west should
help boost south to southeasterly winds tomorrow and Wednesday.
Can`t rule out a bit of stray convection in the far north with
the very warm temperatures and various tiny waves coming through
the southwesterly flow aloft. However, think the best
precipitation chances will hold off until Friday with the
western upper trough starting to approach and a frontal
boundary coming down. Probability of CAPE values over 1000 J/kg
for Friday are less than 30 percent but CIPS analogs have a
small area of 10 percent for severe so will have to keep an eye
out for stronger storms. Another trough coming through should
bring some fairly robust precipitation Sunday, with instability
looking minimal. Cooler temps into the weekend as heights come
down and surface ridging builds in for Monday.

...Unseasonably warm temperatures through Thursday...

With upper ridging and southwesterly flow, the unusually warm
weather will continue through at least Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday. ECMWF EFI has 80th to 90th percentiles across
portions of our area through the mid-week period. While it is
unlikely that we will get above 90 degrees, as NBM probabilities
are only around 20 percent in a few spots, highs will remain at
least 20 to 25 degrees above average. The record for Thursday in
Fargo is 90 and doesn`t seem at this point we will get that hot,
but other records in the mid 80s are well within reach.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

VFR conditions with SE to E winds overnight before winds
increase after sunrise to 10-15kts gusting 20-25kts from the SE.
No other aviation concerns through the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT