934
FXUS63 KFGF 170304
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1004 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms may build into parts of the Devils Lake
  Basin through this evening, with lightning the main threat.

- Active pattern keeps thunderstorm chances in the forecast
  nearly each day this week. Strong to severe storms are
  possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

There is still enough instability in place in our west to
potentially support a thunderstorm holding together with weak
forcing in west-northwest flow aloft. HRRR and other generally
reflects the current trend of this activity remain west and
weakening with low level lapse rates decreasing locally (post
sunset). With the recent rain and light surface winds
radiational fog may develop where skies remain clear with the
best signal in guidance generally in the southern Red River
Valley (particularly west and east of the valley). Due to
northerly flow there is drier air just off the surface, so the
fog may remain relatively shallow and outside of sheltered
locations in the MN forests impacts may be minimal. I added
patchy fog in the favored period Tuesday morning (09Z-15Z) which
matches timing of NBM and CAMs.

UPDATE
Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The main mid level wave responsible for earlier low top
supercells and linear clusters has pushed east with only light
rain lingering in our north central MN counties. 925mb CAA and
a period of subsidence is place locally and we are generally
dry except for our east. There are some weaker mid level
impulses upstream in northwest ND, however there is still an
axis of 1000-1500 J/KG ML CAPE and effective shear 30-40kt to
our west support a few stronger updrafts. This activity is far
enough st and mean flow is such that it will struggle to reach
the Devils Lake Basin before sunset/low levels decouple.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper level wave lifting through the area responsible for area
of showers and storms impacting the CWA currently. Main
instability axis across the far southeast where current Tornado
watch in place and ongoing thunderstorm activity continues to
lift northeast. A larger westerly flow pattern will continue
with shortwaves moving across the area into midweek with
more isolated storm chances continuing the next few days. A
trough dropping through the northern stream will bring another
wave along the international border bringing the greatest
potential for storm chances later Wednesday into Wednesday
night. A larger trough then to develop across the northwestern
US into the weekend with southwest flow setting up across the
Northern Plains. This will likely set up increasing storm
chances for the weekend.


...Shear profiles and low-topped nature to the
storms indicate mainly a tornado threat or isolated wind gust
threat with any remaining activity through the hour or so
before it moves off to the north and east...

...Continued active pattern with storm chances through the
forecast period. The most organized chances for strong to
severe storms could be Wednesday and again toward the weekend...

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

There is still a low chance (20% or less) for a shower or
thunderstorm before 03Z in eastern ND and northwest MN, with the
best chances in north central MN. MVFR stratocumulus should
lift giving way to VFR conditions in eastern ND. IFR conditions
should become MVFR in northwest MN towards KBJI, however it may
linger and rebuild later this evening/overnight in those areas.
VFR conditions are more likely to prevail at KBJI after daytime
mixing increases Tuesday morning. Northerly winds should
decrease with sunset becoming light and variable (3-6kt)
overnight, increasing again after sunrise Tuesday (10-13kt).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...DJR