934
FXUS63 KFGF 271730
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering areas of light rain and drizzle this morning.
  Chances for rain showers Wednesday, highest chances west
  central Minnesota. Threat for any snow has ended.

- Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal late week and
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

As anticipated that area of precipitation that moves northward
as weakened significantly to areas of light rain and drizzle in
the Red River valley into Minnesota. A bit more moderate rain
yet though to move thru Wadena, Park Rapids on west side of
heavier rain moving toward Duluth at 1030z. 925 mb temps warmer
in MN and with less intensity in the precipitation, any snow
chance is now gone. So updated grids for drizzle/rain this
morning and east. Lingering drizzle may continue this afternoon
in some areas and that can be looked at later.


UPDATE
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Precip is becoming more widespread across the southern forecast
area with sleet and rain being the main ptypes over the past 2
hours. A transition to snow along and north of a line can be
expected from Ransom to Steele county with the Red River Valley
likely remaining too warm for snow (very wet/melted dendrites if
it does occur) east into the valley expect Sleet to continue
for another hour or two with warming southerly winds pushing us
back to rain by 2-3am. Snow accumulations look to be minimal
especially on pavement where surfaces are still well above
freezing per DOT sensors but on grassy/elevated surfaces a quick
dusting near Cooperstown/Valley City to maybe on inch in south
central North Dakota remains feasible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...Synopsis...

A deep trough is in place across the Great Basin, with
southeast flow building across the central High Plains. Our area
is still under the influence of westerly flow aloft, with an
embedded shortwave in SW flow to the south. After a more
organized system moves through the region through Tuesday,
southwest flow develops and persists at least through the end of
the week and potentially beyond the weekend (some variance
remains in clusters between ridging and SW by this weekend). The
general trend should be for seasonal temperatures to warm
slightly from seasonal highs in the 40s-lower 50s to slightly
above average highs in the mid 50s-lower 60s. SW flow aloft
inherently brings the potential for additional chances for
precipitation. However, due to the weak nature of the upper flow
in the Plains and variance in guidance resolving any embedded
waves, confidence in measurable precipitation/impacts is low
beyond Wednesday. Another progressive shortwave passes through
Wednesday, bringing likely chances for another wetting rain over
west central Minnesota. Otherwise, a mostly dry pattern with
slight warming trend through Friday.

...Rain Tonight into Tuesday...

A stronger mid level wave is organizing into a hybrid type
system with large scale ascent increasing across our CWA south
to north late this afternoon through Tuesday. Initially drier
air in northeast boundary layer flow will delay measurable
rainfall, deeper moisture will support 700mb deformation banding
of rainfall across the southern zones tonight. Stronger areas
of frontogenesis will tend to be transient making coverage of
higher totals 0.5"+ limited. Better coverage of rain will tend
to initially be along and south of US Highway 200, though the
track of the mid/upper low will eventually allow rain to
overspread northwest/north central MN. Moderate to high
probabilities (50-80%) for 0.25" or more rainfall are shown by
NBM/HREF across southeast ND and west central MN, with a 30-50%
chance in similar areas for greater than 0.5" of rainfall.
Temperatures and precipitation rates tonight overall do not
support any accumulating snowfall, just novelty flakes mixing
in. If sufficient banding and dynamic cooling occurs, a light
dusting on grassy/elevated surfaces cannot be ruled out
(especially west of the Red River Valley).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Areas of rain and drizzle continue to transition across
northeast ND and northwest MN, with additional pockets of fog
over. This is creating variable visibility conditions early in
the TAF period as the main system and deeper moisture transition
northeast and east through the afternoon. Widespread low
stratus (IFR) is impacting the entire region, with pockets of
LIFR cigs. Eventually with a shift to south and southwest flow
drier boundary layer conditions should help gradually improve
ceilings for some locations to MVFR and even some areas of VFR,
however there is a signal for stratus and possible fog to fill
back in over areas where better radiational conditions will be
tonight. For now northwest MN has the best chance for prevailing
IFR (or MVFR) conditions to remain in place through the end of
the TAF period.

The next system arrives Wednesday morning and a low level jet
may bring a period of low level wind shear (30-45kt) as it
progresses eastward. KDVL has the best chance at this time,
though we may need to consider adding mention in eastern ND
during subsequent updates. Rain chances also increase during the
late morning hours in eastern ND, with periods of rain across
northwest MN during the Wednesday afternoon/evening period
(mainly after this TAF period).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/TT
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...DJR