023
FXUS63 KFGF 191743
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread weather impacts are not expected through this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Rain continues to track to the north and east, with low stratus
remaining across the entire FA. Upped sky cover to account for
this through tonight, otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 958 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Light rain continues across much of the FA as of mid morning.
NDAWN sites generally show on either side of a tenth of an inch
of rain. Rain will continue pushing to the north and east
through the day, ending from southwest to northeast this
afternoon/evening. Adjusted PoPs to account for this, with other
portions of the forecast generally on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Rain area is pretty expansive from NW Ontario back thru mid RRV
into southwest ND. This will continue to feed east-northeast
today. Did tweek pops to just go likely all day in most of this
zone.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...Synopsis...

Patches of light rain from southwest and south central ND thru
mid and northern Red River valley into far northwest MN at 09z.
Mostly sprinkles with trace amounts since 06z but Crary NDAWN
had 0.02. Subtle short wave in NW SD will move northeast into
the RRV this aftn and then northeast after that. Lots of mid
level moisture for light rain today, with amounts overall on the
light side. Favored band of light rain today into this evening is
near vort max track from near or north of Bismarck to Grand
Forks to Baudette, Red Lake MN where QPF amounts are forecast in
the 0.10 to 0.20 inch range. For the overnight this upcoming Wed
night switched to more of a drizzle as ptype as coord with
MPX/DLH and data from HRRR show areas from near Fergus Falls up
toward Bemidji likely in low level moisture and potential fog
and drizzle. Temps warm enough thru the period for liquid light
rain.

Clearing from the west Thursday with WNW winds. Highs still
mostly 40-45. Dry stretch of weather Friday thru Sunday as 500
mb flow will be zonal or slight WNW, but northern jet is in
central Canada. Thus outside of bands of mid and high clouds,
looks quiet with highs in the 40s, a few 50s possible if more
sun on any one day, especially southeast ND. Normal highs this
weekend for Grand Forks is at 32 so continued well above normal
readings.

For next week....Monday will be dry and similar temps to the
weekend. Then Tues-Wed period is the most uncertain weather
period in regards to a short wave and surface low that the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means and NBM track just north of the
International border. Thus Tues period will be on the south side
of this and any light precipitation likely to be liquid light
rain. A couple of the 00z GFS ensemble members want to take low
a bit more south toward the ND border and this if it occurs
would indicate snow chances would be higher right along ND/MB
border Tuesday aftn/night. Wednesday sees the 500 mb and sfc low
move east with ECMWF the stronger of all of the models in terms
of intensity and also slowest, with system north of Kenora
Ontario 12z Wed and moving east thru the day Wed. GFS is faster.
Either way though as system passes by there will a period of
windier colder weather and potential for light snow esp northern
areas but impacts from this wraparound moisture at this time
looks minimal with advisory level impacts for WPC for Wed along
the border 5-10 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Low stratus will remain the biggest aviation impact throughout
the TAF period. Stratus will bring IFR to at times LIFR to all
TAF sites except KFAR this afternoon. Very slowly, ceilings will
rise this evening into tonight as a drier northwesterly wind
behind a cold front develops. IFR ceilings will linger longest
at KTVF and KBJI, where the front will take the greatest amount
of time to reach. IFR ceilings will likely persist for most if
not the entire TAF period for those two terminals. Other then
ceilings, rain is pushing from southwest to northeast,
occasionally impacting terminals. Rain chances taper off this
afternoon in KDVL, taking until this evening at further east
terminals such as KTVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty