062
FXUS63 KFGF 270527
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1127 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off Lake Effect snow southeast of Lake of the Woods
  the next few days. 1-3 inches of snow is possible for places
  from Baudette to Big Falls

- Snow Friday night across southeast North Dakota with a
  greater than 50% chance for 3"

- Below average temperatures continue into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

There have been a few reports of flurries under the stratus
layer in northwest MN and nearby locations to our west. PVA in
the mid levels is responsible for upstream returns in Manitoba
and with this spreading south tonight, additional flurries could
be expected over our CWA. I added mention during this update
through the early morning hours Thursday, otherwise only minor
adjustments were made to near term trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A clearing in the larger expanse of low stratus is starting to
fill in, but where it is in place radiation conditions allowed
temperatures to drop a bit faster than previous forecast trends.
As this fills in temps may increase again back to the mid/upper
20s but upstream trends in Canada still support more substantial
gaps/clearing by morning, so I held off on any major adjustments
outside of near term trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...Synopsis...

Yesterday`s system is now centered over Sault Ste Marie, MI
with NW flow in the backside funneling in colder air as can be
noted by area temps currently sitting in the low to mid 20s a
30+ degree difference from the warm 50s and 60s we saw on
Sunday. Focusing on just our area before zooming back out NW
flow remains across the region with still open water on larger
area lakes supporting lake effect snow the next couple days
(primarily Lake of the Woods) with 1-3 inches of snow possible.
Going forward the primary baroclinic zone will retreat north
slightly after being pushed well into the plains by this recent
system but remain south of area in South Dakota and Iowa. A low
will track across the gradient Friday night into Saturday bring
widespread snow to the northern plains though only clipping our
area with far SE North Dakota and westcentral Minnesota seeing
the main impacts in our forecast area. After this broad Hudson
Bay troughing and an amplified Gulf of Alaska ridge will
prevail NW over the northern plains keeping us in the freezer
with wind chills frequently in the negatives.

- Lake Effect Snow

Soundings and hi-res guidance such as the HREF and individual
cams very support the formation of lake effect snow on the
southeast shore and downstream areas of Lake of the Woods the
next few days. Current lake temperatures per recent satellite
imagery of 34-37 degree and result in sfc to 850mb differences
of 16-17C and SFC to 700mb differences of 22-23C. This falls
just short of the moderate threshold of 18C and 24C defined in
Niziol 1987. Combine this very minimal directional shear and
only about 20kts of speed shear and we should get a single
nearly stationary lake effect band. Overall depending what you
look at 2-4" seems to be well within the cards with a few high
outliers like the HRRR and RRFS in the double digits. Main area
of concern will be from Baudette or just east of the there on
south towards Big Falls.

- Friday Night Snow

There seems to be considerably less track uncertainty with this
low than the one that just brought a widespread 4-8" to the
Dakotas and Minnesota on Tuesday. Primary uncertainty will be on
where mesoscale banding sets up with a low chance for it to
significantly impact our forecast area. However if you are
travel south into parts of eastern South Dakota and southern
Minnesota this will definitely be one to watch for adjusting
travel plans. Currently there is high probability for areas
south of a line from Lisbon to Wahpeton to Alexandria of at
least minor winter impacts (expect a few disruption to daily
life). About a 70% chance for greater than 2" across those areas
and 50/50 on meeting advisory criteria for those counties,
depending on any subtle track shifts and how sharp the northern
QPF gradient is.

- December Deep Freeze

While not particularly cold by any means for what we can see
temperature wise in the region during the peak of winter this
will certainly be the coldest its been so far this season. One
could very much attribute the cold to our fresh snowpack further
enhancing radiational cooling potential. Sunday and Monday look
to be the cold with highs not making it out of the teens and
some areas remaining in the single digits. Minimum wind chills
Saturday through next Wednesday will be in the minus teens and
locally minus 20s, cold weather advisory criteria is -25 and may
need to be monitored Monday morning. Overall if you were hoping
for winter you`re definitely getting your wish beyond
Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

MVFR stratus is in place across eastern ND and much of
northwest/west central MN, though VFR stratus (3200-5000 FT AGL)
is beginning to spread form the northeast and is already in
place over KTVF. Satellite/obs trends matching short range
guidance show this improving trend eventually arriving in
eastern ND during the first 6hr of the TAF period, though MVFR
ceilings are more likely to prevail in north central MN toward
KBJI. Confidence is particularly low in this pattern as the air
mass will tend to support additional areas of stratocumulus
forming over the region during the TAF period and some guidance
is picking up on this during the 15-22Z period. Expect variable
flight conditions across the region at least until late
afternoon/early evening Thursday where there is a more
consistent signal for prevailing VFR arriving in all current
guidance due to shifting flow aloft.

Surface high pressure just to the west moves east later in the
TAF period and winds that are holding in the 10-14kt range
(gusting to 20kt) should decrease and eventually become light
and variable or even calm Thursday evening.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...DJR