041
FXUS63 KFGF 182330
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain comes to an end this evening, with patchy fog and drizzle
  overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...Synopsis...

Ongoing rain showers across our southern FA are slowly waning as an
area of low pressure well to our south continues to track east. In
these showers wake, stratus and drizzle will likely persist into the
evening and overnight hours. Meanwhile up north in southern Canada,
a cold front is tracking towards the region. This cold front will
pass through slowly from north to south on Saturday. Timing of
the front looks to keep high temperatures near 70 degrees area
wide Saturday afternoon, and then in its wake drop to become a
bit cooler, in the 60s for Sunday. Temperatures will remain a
bit cooler early in the week, as lower heights due to a weak
upper level low pushing from the Northern Rockies late Saturday
to the Great Lakes by early Tuesday will keep temperatures
around or just a few degrees below average. As the week wears
on, guidance suggests that either weak upper level ridging
builds in or zonal flow aloft takes control. In either scenario,
temperatures will be near or a few degrees above average. This
leads to highs in the 70s most afternoons Wednesday through
Friday. Precipitation chances will be tied to the strength of
the ridge and where we end up in relation to the ridge axis. If
we remain on the periphery of the ridge or in more zonal flow, a
few weak waves may track through the region bringing low
chances for precipitation. Meanwhile, if the ridge is a little
stronger and is more or less centered of the Red River Valley,
precipitation chances will remain very low.

...Rain Today, Fog/Drizzle Tonight...

Rain is slowly ending from west to east across southern reaches of
the FA. In its wake, several observation sites are reporting
drizzle. Soundings show saturation up to 2 Km in depth persisting
into tonight with sufficient low level lift. Therefore, patches
of drizzle and fog will remain a concern into Saturday morning.
It is uncertain when stratus and drizzle will burn off Saturday
morning, as for the most persistent locations (which are
currently favored to be in far southeastern ND), it may take
until the drier air behind the cold front comes through during
the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Lingering scattered light rain showers should end in west
central MN, however lingering low level moisture and additional
low level saturation may lead to an expansion of fog and drizzle
in southeast ND and west central MN later this evening into the
early morning hours Saturday. Ceilings are currently variable
with IFR to MVFR ceilings primarily in southeast ND and west
central MN and larger gaps/holes where VFR has been able to
prevail late in the afternoon/early evening.

Due to the surface pattern and light easterly BL flow tonight,
continued increases in low level moisture should at least
support an expansion of MVFR across the region with IFR impacts
more likely at KDVL, KFAR, and KBJI. How far north and northeast
IFR ceilings fill in along with coverage of fog/drizzle impacts
remain much less certain tonight. There is much less
persistence in observations currently compared to guidance which
remains too pessimistic compared to observation trends. KGFK
and KTVF at least should see the arrival of MVFR and a low
chance (30% or less) for IFR conditions.

On Saturday low level winds shift to the northeast and
increase (12-15kt sustained), which should aid in clearing
out/improving lower level conditions (ending any fog/drizzle).
However, the cold pool aloft that will still be present should
continue to support MVFR stratus or stratocumulus development
and MVFR ceilings appear more likely to prevail into the
afternoon Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...DJR