090
FXUS63 KFGF 091219
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
619 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very difficult travel conditions are expected today, with
  heavy snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and ice. The line
  between freezing rain and snow is expected to be sharp, with 3
  to 6 inches or more snow to the northeast of the line, and up
  to a tenth of an inch of ice to the south.

- Winds increase this afternoon, with gusts of 50 mph or higher.
  Areas with snow on the ground, or actively falling, will see visibility
  reductions. The highest winds are expected in southeast North
  Dakota.

- Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 70
  percent chance for winds chills to drop to -30 or colder.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 620 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...Synopsis...

A strong clipper system moves into the area today, bringing mixed
precipitation, including freezing rain and moderately heavy snow.
Travel impacts are expected due to accumulations ranging from 2-7
inches of snow and up to 0.10 inch of ice. Winds increase this
afternoon, with some areas in southeast North Dakota seeing the
potential for near 60 mph gusts. Further north and east, gust
potential will be slightly lower; however, with falling snow,
visibility is likely to be reduced, sometimes sharply. Much colder
temperatures follow this system heading into Wednesday with highs
expected to only reach the teens. Another clipper brings additional
cold air and light snow to the area on Thursday and Friday, with the
coldest air of the season thus far for most areas. Dangerously cold
wind chills are possible each morning Friday through Sunday.

...Winter Storm and High Winds Today...

Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate today as a strong
clipper impacts the area. A strong thermal gradient, along with
favorable moisture advection, will interact along a sharp baroclinic
zone stretching from northwest to southeast. H5 low pressure
traverses this region today, with warm air and moisture overrunning
much colder air. Areas to the south of a line from about Devils Lake
to Mayville, to Detroit Lakes could see ice accumulations of up to a
tenth of an inch. To the north, most areas should see snow, which
could be heavy at times. Looking at snowfall accumulations, the 25th
percentile comes in around 2 inches, with 75th percentile totals
upwards of 6 inches. Additionally, a band of higher totals is
possible, representing the 90th percentile values of roughly 8
inches. For areas in southeast North Dakota, rain and freezing rain
will be the primary ptypes through late afternoon, with a change
over to snow this evening. Strong cold air advection, however, will
bring the risk of rapid freezing on surfaces, which could lead to
travel impacts. Winds increase rapidly as the system pushes east,
with northwest to north winds increasing this afternoon and evening,
producing gusts up to 60 mph in parts of southeast North Dakota.

...Very Cold Temperatures Friday into the Weekend...

A reinforcing surge of Arctic air pours into the area Thursday, with
sharply colder temperatures expected Friday through Sunday.
Afternoon highs on Friday will be in the single digits either side
of zero, with highs on Saturday remaining below zero. Overnight lows
are expected to fall into the 20s below zero Friday night and
Saturday night, with wind chills as low as 40 below zero.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

IFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period as a
winter storm moves into the region. Look for a range of
precipitation, to include freezing rain and snow at KDVL and
KFAR, with mostly snow expected at KGFK, KTVF, and KBJI. Low
visibility, as low as 1/4 mile, is likely during periods of
moderate snowfall; however, prevailing visibility will vary
between 1/2 mile and 3 miles. Winds increase substantially this
afternoon out of the northwest to north. Gusts to near 50 knots
are possible at KFAR, with gusts upwards of 35-40 knots at
KGFK and KDVL. Wind gust potential is slightly lower at KTVF and
KBJI, where we could see 20-30 knot gusts out of the north to
northwest.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ007-008-
     015-016-026-027-029-030-054.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for NDZ024-028-038-039-049-052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006-
     014.
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001-002-
     004-007-008-013>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ003-
     029.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for MNZ003-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for MNZ005-006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch