558
FXUS63 KFGF 261745
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40 percent chance for 2 inches or greater in far
  southeast North Dakota Friday night.

- Below normal temperatures into next week.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 952 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Have added some lake effect snow to the Baudette area for
tonight into Thursday albeit it will likely continue past
thursday given northwest winds and open waters on the lake. On
the high end if a snow band remains stationary over one area a
couple inches are possible for areas near and southeast of
Baudette.

UPDATE
Issued at 623 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A few flurries remain in west central MN but the main falling
snow has moved out as expected. Wind gusts also lowering in the
south valley and west central MN. So all going according to
plan. No changes needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb upper low is in central Wisconsin at 09z and moving
slowly east with surface low in northeast Wisconsin. Gusty
winds continue to be over 30 kts into southeast ND and west
central MN. These gusty winds will slowly subside as we go
through the morning as the low moves east-northeast and the high
pressure ridge axis is currently over central Saskatchewan into
southwest North Dakota slides east. Lingering light snow in the
eastern fcst area (Bemidji-Wadena should end near 12z). So for
today forecast challenge is more cloud cover issues. Upstream
shows considerable cloud cover in the MVFR aviation flight
category range, but some holes are present. Used NBM/Conshort
blend for sky today which keeps it mostly cloudy, but allows for
a few breaks. The main colder air is still to our northwest so
highs today will be mid to upper 20s.

Colder airmass with high pressure ridge will ooze east tonight
into Thursday as winds continue to lighten and there is a slow
clearing process. Lows tonight teens, highs Thursday low to mid
20s. Will need to watch for any areas that clear out over the
deeper snow cover as low temperatures could tank. Seeing several
areas of near zero degree temps in northwest ND and northeast
Montana currently at 09z.

The next 500 mb short wave to affect the northern plains will
move into Washington state Thursday evening and quickly
southeast from there through Wyoming Friday night. Surface low
formation with this looks to be close to the upper wave, but an
area of frontogenetic forcing noted at 700 mb due to warm
advection in the 850-700 mb layer will develop an area of snow
from central Montana across southwest ND into eastern SD Friday
into Friday night. 00z GFS/ECMWF and NBM all bring the far
northeast edge of accumulating snow into central and SE ND and
west central MN Friday night. I wouldn`t be surprised to see the
700 mb frontogenetic forcing shift a bit more south in time the
next 36 hours before this event and shift snow more out of far
SE ND, but as it stands currently 40 percent chance of greater
than 2 inches in far southeast ND (Sargent, Ransom, Richland
counties).

After this wave...colder air will move in Sunday-Monday period
with highs likely in the single digits and lows below zero in
some areas. With relatively light winds, wind chills remaining
warmer than advisory levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

MVFR conditions continuing for most areas (patches of low VFR
currently) ceilings lifting to BKN035 this evening with winds
remaining northwest through the period with gusts upwards of
20kts mainly within the eastern Red River Valley (so impacting
FAR and TVF). Expect gusts to drop this afternoon/evening
persisting a bit past sunset on a scattered basis.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...TT