270
FXUS63 KFGF 180929
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
329 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Widespread weather impacts are not expected through this
  weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb flow shows upper low near Sioux City IA and moisture
rotating northward thru S Wisconsin and southern MN and mostly
rain as ptype, with some upper ridging over ND, then another
upper low in northern Washington state with a 500 mb jet into
southern Alberta into central Saskatchewan. Withing this
Canadian part of the 500 mb jet are a couple of short waves that
is providing light precipitation the next 24-48 hours from
Calgary to Saskatoon/Regina areas. Locally though, upper ridge
north of upper low keeping our area dry with a dry surface
east wind. As upper low slowly moves east and upper ridge north
of it breaks down today mid and high clouds will advance east
thru the fcst area. Wednedsday will see a short wave move into
Calgary area and then ENE thru central Canada and the southern
edge of this wave will help generate patches of light
precipitation very late tonight and into Wednesday evening, with
light rain the ptype based on temperatures. Amounts
light trace to a tenth, higher values Lake of the Woods area.

Thursday thru Sunday will see a zonal 500 mb flow along the Intl
border with likely periods of mid and high level cloud cover.
Precipitation chances are low, sub 15 pct. Even looking into
next week, precipitation chances increase a little but airmass
remains on the warmer side so wintry impacts prior to
Thanksgiving Day look minimal.

Lots of uncertainity at the very long ranges of the extended in
the day 10-15 period specifically. Long range pattern has
indicated colder air, but to what degree, and also will there be
any snowfall in associated with colder air moving in. 00z long
range ensembles, esp ECMWF, backing off of a bit, with one shot
of colder than normal temps just after Thanksgiving then core of
cold air settling back northwest. Way to early to see if any
travel concerns exist for the days after Thankgiving at this
stage.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions as mid and high clouds move across the forecast
area. Winds have dropped below 10 kts and will become more
southeasterly as we head towards morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR