810
FXUS63 KFGF 271027
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
527 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stronger weather system moves in for Monday/Tuesday. A
  widespread soaking rain is expected with most locations having
  a 60-90% chance for greater than 1 inch of rain across much
  of of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Clouds are making progress clearing eastward with drier air
moving in as winds turn a bit more southwest and then eventually
west. Dew pts in the low 40s in KDVL. Meanwhile low clouds and
some fog continues from Roseau to Fargo to Forman ND. But this
too will continue to gradually clear eastward. The airmass in
the clearer air is for the most part drying fast enough to
prevent widespread fog. There is fog though in the moist airmass
in west central into north central MN with vsbys 1 mile or less.
Adjusted fog areas for the above.

Rainfall for Monday-Tuesday period is on track with NBM/WPC
highlighting the area from near Bismarck up thru Grand Forks to
Roseau/Baudette with an outlook for heavy rain potential.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Rain showers move into Northeastern Minnesota by this evening
bringing dry conditions back to the region. A weak cold front
tonight will bring some clearing to areas west of the Red River
Valley allowing temperatures to cool into the 40s F with low to
mid 50s F everywhere else Sunday morning. Surface high pressure
moves in Sunday pushing out the clouds and bringing
high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s F. High pressure
(1020 mb) Sunday night will bring cooler temperatures in the 40s
F across the region Monday morning.

Monday, a 500 mb wave begins to track across the Northern
Plains bringing our next chance for precipitation. Southerly
winds will advect in anomalously high moisture with PWAT values
being >200% of normal. Southerly winds advecting in warmer air,
high pressure to the north setting up a baroclinic zone, and
potentially a deformation zone will provide the forcing for this
precipitation. The weak low pressure system is expected to
track generally along a line from Jamestown to Roseau, aligning
well with the areas that can expect the heaviest rainfall.
Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota currently have a
50-80% chance for getting greater than 1 inch of rain.
Probabilities fall into the 10-30% range for 2 inches of rain,
with those values being closer to the heaviest axis.
Precipitation chances are expected to gradually decrease
throughout the day Tuesday.

This rain is expected to bring drought relief but could cause
issues as well. Slow moving showers with embedded thunderstorms
in such a moist environment have the potential to cause
isolated flooding. Due to this, the Weather Prediction Center
has issued a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall. Severe
storms are not expected. Heavy rain during harvest time will
also impact agricultural activities.

The weather pattern for the middle to late week period is less
certain but looks to be more benign with seasonable temperatures
and limited precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Areas of light rain/drizzle are lingering ahead of a front that
is moving into eastern ND during the early part of the TAF
period. Widespread IFR (pockets of LIFR) stratus remains in
place east of the front, with areas of clearing behind the front.
The driest low level air is still just to the west (associated
with westerly flow) and that means that in the areas of clearing
along the front additional radiational fog/stratus may redevelop
before the much drier air arrives Sunday morning. This is going
to result in a period of highly variable flight conditions
during the overnight/early morning hours in eastern ND and
northwest MN.

The front is expected to finally push east across the entire
region through the morning hours Sunday and prevailing VFR
conditions are expected across the region (finally) by late
Sunday morning continuing into Sunday night.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...LT
AVIATION...DJR