999
FXUS63 KFGF 091129
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
529 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of lake effect snow will continue through this morning along
  the south shore of Lake of the Woods. Light accumulations are
  possible within thin bands of snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Next round of stratus continues to dig south across the northern
Red River Valley into northwestern MN, and still some clouds
lingering near the SD border. Made some minor tweaks to sky
cover. A couple of web cams have been showing a few white
streaks, so will keep the mention for flurries going. Impacts
still look minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...Synopsis...

Reinforcing shortwave digging down out of Canada today will
continue to shift flow to a more northerly direction. There has
been a bit of clearing from the Devils Lake Basin into the
central Red River Valley, but the shortwave will bring another
round of stratus and even a few scattered flurries, currently
entering our northern counties. Flurries also have been
lingering in the south, so included mention wherever clouds are
expected to be thick enough through today and tonight. Upper
ridge will start to nose into the Plains on Monday, with winds
shifting back to the south and warm air advection starting up.
Warming trend will continue through much of the week with
northwesterly flow aloft to ridging eventually transitioning to
southwesterly flow by the end of the week. Still a lot of
differences in how the trough over the western CONUS comes east
into the weekend, with some solutions bringing out a closed low
and others more open and progressive. Not a strong signal in the
ensembles to lean one way or another at this point.

...Lake effect snow showers...

Northwesterly winds at the surface across most of Lake of the
Woods early this morning, but should shift to a more northerly
direction this afternoon as the next round of cold air comes
down. Still plenty of difference between air and water temps,
although the HRRR is not showing as strong of a signal for snow
as yesterday. Can`t rule out some lake enhancement of snow
showers/flurries. HREF probabilities of at least a tenth of an
inch are fairly high south of Baudette, but only around 30
percent for an inch or so. Will continue to mention some lake
effect, but at this point impacts look pretty minimal and won`t
go with any dedicated messaging.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Clearing spot from the Devils Lake Basin into the Red River
Valley has kept the ND TAF sites VFR for now. However, MVFR
stratus already impacting the MN airports will push south and
westward and most locations will go down in category for a few
hours this morning. A few isolated flurries are possible but not
confident enough to include in the TAFs at this point. Winds
that are gusting above 20 kts this morning into the afternoon
will taper off after sunset, then become light and variable as
they start their shift to the south.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR