


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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608 FXUS63 KFGF 171957 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 257 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a medium chance for rain between Sunday night and Tuesday morning. Gusty winds accompany this chance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...Synopsis... Matured and stacked upper low is viewable on satellite over southeast MB/northwest ON, providing light rain/mist near the international border along with breezy conditions area-wide. This synoptic feature is amid broader longwave upper troughing over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. A shortwave trough is also viewable near the southern Canadian Rockies and adjacent Prairie Provinces. This synoptic feature will traverse east/southeast across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday, bringing a small chance for light rain across the area as well as continued breezy conditions. Sunday into next week, ensemble guidance strongly favors an overall progressive pattern with upper wave packets traversing the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest in a generally west to east fashion. One of these packets features a hybrid/clipper- like system progged to move through the region between late Sunday and early Tuesday. This will provide a medium chance for rain across the region along with gusty winds. This could also bring the season`s first snowflakes. More details on these below. Getting into mid to late next week, ensemble guidance suggests progressive pattern slows with amplifying upper ridge amplifies in central CONUS coupled with amplifying upper troughing from near the Hudson Bay into Great Lakes region. There is uncertainty in location and amplitude of each synoptic feature this time. Should the upper ridging be more of the dominant feature to influence our region, above average temperatures are favored; whereas more influence of the upper trough would promote cooler, more seasonable temperatures. In either scenario, overall dry conditions are favored, although some light precipitation will be possible under influence of upper trough. ...Chance for rain and gusty winds early next week... Ensemble and deterministic guidance vary to some degree in the strength and track of this hybrid/clipper-like system to move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest between Sunday night and Tuesday morning. This will bring a medium (40%) chance for precipitation. Should the system move through stronger/further south, chance for more widespread and slightly higher QPF amounts increases. In this scenario, precip amounts would reach into the 0.25 to 1.0 inch range. A stronger/further south system would also serve to drag colder air behind the system southward behind it. This would allow the opportunity for snow to become possible on the western/northern flanks of the precipitation shield near its deformation zone upon its departure. Should this occur and the system move through our area overnight, snow will certainly be the realm of possibility. Should snow occur, impacts will be minimal due to the snow`s inability to accumulate thanks to seasonably warm ground temperature as well as the likely transient nature of snow. Any potential impact from snowfall would be from reduced visibility, something that remains unknown at this time due to low predictability in mesoscale features like the deformation zone and subtle, but influential temperature differences near it. Should the system move through weaker/further north, lower coverage and lesser amounts of QPF will be favored, with no more than quarter of an inch of precipitation. This would also markedly lower the chance for snow due to overall warmer temperatures and less forcing within our area. Either scenario would still result in gusty winds across the region, which may reach advisory-criteria/exceed 45 mph. Highest winds are currently forecast for Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 MVFR to IFR ceilings will be main impact to aviation this TAF period. Widespread low stratus will remain over majority of the area before 00Z. After 00Z, these low ceilings lessen in coverage, mainly then focused in northwest Minnesota. Increased southwest to west winds 20kt gusting to 27kt will continue through 00Z. After 00Z, winds lessen to around 6kt. Saturday will remain breezy with west-northwest winds around 20kt. Low ceilings become more widespread again after 18Z Saturday, along with a 20% chance for light rain during the day. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...CJ