424
FXUS63 KFGF 250439
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday mainly south of
  US-2, some may see the first snowflakes of the season
  overnight.

- Seasonable high temperatures in the 40s and 50s will be common
  throughout the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Winds are lessening to less than 10 mph, with some areas already
seeing calm winds - mainly in southeast ND and west-central MN.
This along with surface high pressure centered in the Dakotas
will allow temperatures to dip well into the 20s for some
locations, most likely in Devils Lake basin and potentially
southeast ND/southern Red River valley where the air mass is
locally drier. Questions remain on how low southeast ND/southern
Red River Valley will go due to increasing cloud cover.

This also introduces some questions on whether or not fog will
develop within the region. As of now, model guidance is not
suggesting potential for fog, mainly due to the dryness of the
air mass. And while recent soaking rainfall mostly fell in
northwest MN, winds are forecast to be not quite calm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...Synopsis...

Behind a sweeping cold front skies are becoming mostly clear
with dry air advecting in, while temperatures have returned to
seasonal values with lows in the 20s and 30s tonight. The
overall pattern through the next week results in persistent
precipitation chances as the region rides in a baroclinic zone
with southwest flow aloft. This also favors no significant
fluctuation from these near average temperatures, though
trending slightly warmer for the second half of the week.

Ensemble guidance shows increased potential for a hybrid-type,
progressive shortwave and associated low pressure system to
move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Monday into
Tuesday. Confidence is high for periods of rain for areas south
of US-2, while more moderate confidence exists for the extent
of moisture into the northern zones as well as any accumulation
of snow occurring overnight. This will largely be depending on
forcing and having sufficient rates to accumulating more than a
dusting on elevated or grassy surfaces. The most favorable area
for seeing snow is west of the Red River Valley Monday night,
though most model solutions support areas with heavier
precipitation rates remaining as rain or a mix.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Medium to high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing
throughout the TAF period. Overnight winds will be less than
10kt, and at some locations will be light and variable. There
will be some high altitude clouds moving through the region
overnight tonight. This may promote some patchy fog within the
region.

As of now, areas like southeast ND and the southern Red
River Valley hold relatively higher chances at seeing fog
compared to other locations, although confidence is not high in
fog developing at all. This is mainly due to questions regarding
where winds remain light and variable while skies remain
clear/mostly clear. This is the only aspect degrading confidence
in VFR dominating the forecast.

During the day Sunday, winds increase out of the northwest
10-15kt in northeast ND and northwest MN, whereas southeast ND
and west-central MN stay under 10kt.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...CJ