282
FXUS63 KFGF 140525
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1125 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog developing again tonight in northeastern North Dakota and
  portions of northwestern and west central Minnesota. Some
  areas could be locally dense.

- There remains strong synoptic predictability in a pattern
  change early next week with the potential for accumulating
  snow and travel impacts Tuesday through Thursday.

- Conditions remain favorable in the near term for above average
  temperatures through the weekend with a low potential for
  hydrological impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

...Synopsis...

Split flow aloft continues with the main upper trough well to
our south, and fairly quiet near zonal flow over the Northern
Plains. The surface high over northwestern MN currently is
expected to move east and a weak trough comes in, but with
moisture pooling along the trough axis and light winds could see
another round of fog tonight. A few of the ensemble members
bring a weak embedded shortwave along the Canadian border for
Sunday night, but probabilities for anything measurable are less
than 10 percent so will focus on more impactful conditions for
now. Still good agreement on a pattern shift to more
southwesterly flow aloft as upper troughing digs into the
western CONUS, but a lot of variability in the details. There
are indications of southwesterly flow and a more active pattern
continuing through the end of next week, but uncertainty still
high.

...Fog tonight...

Plenty of melting snow across the CWA as many areas have risen
into the 40s this afternoon, and even the colder areas are still
mid to upper 30s. SHEF and HREF both have high probabilities of
a mile or less visibility from the Langdon area into
northwestern and west central MN. However, unlike last night`s
surface high there will be some southwest to westerly winds
behind the weak surface trough axis moving through. This is
generally unfavorable for radiation fog, but given snow melt and
high probabilities from the ensembles am not certain of
anything. CAMs development of low visibility ranges from nothing
to completely socked in with fog along and east of the Red
River. Will include patchy and areas of fog for tonight into
tomorrow morning, but not confident enough yet for dense fog
headlines.

...System coming through mid-week...

Many of the ensemble members have a fairly strong shortwave
coming into the Northern Plains mid-week ahead of the western
CONUS trough, and a few such as the operational GFS are quite
bullish on QPF. However, there are a few clusters of around 20
and 17 percent of members respectively that are not as strong
with the lead shortwave. Probability of any precipitation is
very high, and even 2 inch probs are around 60 percent in
portions of northeastern ND. However, chances for some of the
higher amounts of more than 6 inches drop off to less than 20
percent, and there is the possibility of rain instead of snow
for at least part of the precipitation period. With all the
uncertainty, will maintain the messaging we have going.

...Melting and warm temperatures...

Web cams across many locations across the CWA show a lot of the
snow has been eroded, with a lot of brown instead of white for
all but northwestern MN. The NBM may be underperforming on highs
a bit today and into the weekend, so melting should continue.
Some rain ahead of the mid-week system on top of the melting
snow could bring some river responses, but at this time the
probabilities for impacts look low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Fog is beginning to develop near the international border,
although the question is if impacts to TAF sites occur. GFK and
TVF are seeing increasing probability for fog overnight so MVFR
visibilities were added to the TAF for both sites. It is
possible if fog is dense enough for prevailing 1/4SM to arise
but confidence is low in how widespread fog gets.

Fog will remain the main impact to the TAF period although fog
may eventually turn into stratus after 12z, keeping flight
categories at VLIFR/LIFR/MVFR through early afternoon despite
improvements to visibility. This is dependent on the scope of
fog across the region, which as stated above has a low
predictability.

Winds will remain a limited impact with values below 15 knots
sustained generally.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux