876
FXUS63 KFGF 061743
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for thunderstorms exist over the holiday
  weekend, with a level 1 out of 5 chance each day. The main
  impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping pong
  ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Quite a bit of cloud cover over the western half of the CWA this
morning. However, the SPC meso page has CIN mixing out and
around 3000 J/kg of ML CAPE nearly realized. Could get some
intensification of the complex of elevated storms currently over
central ND as it moves into our area. Shear is rather modest,
around 25 to 30 kts, but could be enough to keep updrafts going
and a few of the model soundings have some fairly curved
hodographs in the low layers. Will monitor as the convection
moves east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging continues to build over the Eastern Plains, with
several weak shortwaves evident on water vapor. A couple such
shortwaves have been producing showers and storms over northwestern
MN and along the north central ND/Manitoba border.
The next more significant shortwave is still down over WY and will
move into the Northern Plains tonight into tomorrow morning. The
upper ridge will begin to shift slightly east Sunday night, leaving
the region in southwesterly flow aloft into Labor Day. A broad
trough/upper low will move through south central Canada on Tuesday,
leaving the Northern Plains in slightly northwesterly to near zonal
flow aloft through the rest of the work week and into next Saturday.

...Marginal severe chances tonight, tomorrow and Monday...

Some MU CAPE still around, but SPC mesoanalysis page has a lot of
CIN with the mixed layer CAPE. Most of the CAMs don`t have much over
eastern ND until later tonight when the shortwave over WY comes
northeast, but given recent poor performance do not have much trust
in their solutions. There will be plenty of MU CAPE again overnight,
although bulk shear will be fairly modest around 30 kts. Some
convection could be ongoing tomorrow morning, with HREF showing a
low probability of strong updraft helicity tracks in west central
MN. Another shortwave coming through could bring more thunderstorm
activity Sunday afternoon and evening, although much will depend on
how the morning activity plays out and if the atmosphere recovers.
Better shear looks to be in store for Monday, although instability
is more uncertain. At this point, can`t rule out an isolated
instance of hail up to ping pong balls or 60 mph winds through the
rest of the holiday weekend, but confidence in exactly when and
where is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings at many of the TAF sites, but the MN side
is starting to mix out and the other airports could see at least
the lower stratus decreasing in coverage in the next few hours.
Convection will come in from the west later this afternoon and
evening, so kept prob30 groups going as there is still a lot of
uncertainty as to exactly when and where. Some MVFR or even IFR
ceilings possible behind the storms later tonight and into
tomorrow. Winds will remain southeasterly except near
thunderstorms, and some gusts up to 20 kts will be possible late
in the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Lynch/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR