370
FXUS63 KFGF 180435
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over parts of
  southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota this
  afternoon and early evening. Hail to 1 inch and wind gusts to
  70 mph would be the main threats.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Thunderstorm risk has ended across most of the area this
evening, with only scattered activity along the I-94 and Hwy 10
corridors in west central Minnesota. Temperatures are in the
lower 60s along the International Border with low 70s in the
southern Red River Valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Thunderstorms continue to move to the east and southeast this
afternoon in west central Minnesota. These storms could become
strong to severe at times over the next several hours. Hazards
could include large hail and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...Synopsis...

Typical late summer pattern with western ridging and great lakes
troughing bringing WNW upper level flow across the northern
plains. Strongest instability remains south of the area but will
still see enough for thunder chance with the wave Wednesday
night late or Thursday. Then again with a wave at the end of the
weekend. Will see seasonal temps with highs in the 70s and lows
in the 50s for most of the period a couple warmer days Thursday
and next Monday where temps will climb solidly into the 80s but
again minimal impacts wrt to hazardous weather.

...Severe Thunderstorm Risk this afternoon and evening...

There continues to be a signal within the CAM guidance and some
cumulus development ahead of fropa in the central and some accas
southern valley suggesting convection develops in lakes region
this afternoon and early evening. Timing of this front seems on
track from previous forecasts and when this lift or forcing is
combined with peak heating and advection of better instability
storms are expected to develop in that 5 to 7pm time frame. The
strongest of these storms will be marginally severe capable of
hail to an inch and winds at most to 70mph, given the dry
soundings. Coverage of the severe threat is expected to be
isolated at best and limited to just the lakes country and then
points to the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southeast
North Dakota, with a low chance of moving into the vicinity of
KFAR during the early overnight hours. Otherwise, look for
minimal impact potential through the remainder of the period.
Winds will be light and variable during most of the overnight,
with winds expected to remain generally less than 10 knots
through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK/Lynch
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...Lynch