477
FXUS63 KFGF 011138
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
638 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost advisory for Thursday overnight into early Friday for
  all but the far southern forecast area. Ideal radiational
  conditions should allow temperatures to drop to below NBM
  guidance in many areas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Coord with DLH as they had issued frost/freeze headlines by 05z
for much of their area. High pressure ridge axis at the surface
will be right over the Red River valley and adjacent sections in
Minnesota at 12z. Provided skies are clear, winds will be light
and conditions look ideal for rational cooling. Went below given
NBM temps, mixing in some ConsMOS and then lowering a few from
that in normally colder areas such in NW MN. Shower chances
Saturday are more limited to areas near the Manitoba border via
NBM pops. However there are some models that do keep at least a
chance of a few light showers farther south. Very light is the
key now...trace to 0.01. Mild and dry for the balance of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...Synopsis...

Influence from an upper trough in Canada spreads into the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, starting this afternoon into
evening as a dry cold front sweeps through. This will increase
winds and bring today`s above average temperatures back toward
average Thursday into next week. Winds may briefly gusty this
evening, especially in the Red River Valley. Winds reinvigorate
area-wide by late morning, lasting through the afternoon.
North-northwest winds 20-35 mph can be anticipated, highest in
northeast ND and northwest MN.

While cooler temperatures into the upper 30s are forecast
tonight in northeast ND, a steady light breeze behind the front
is expected to prevent temperatures from tanking via radiational
cooling. This will limit the chance for frost.

Frost becomes more likely Thursday night into Friday as surface
high pressure centers itself more into our region keeping winds
calm and skies clear. Best chance for fog currently resides in
northeast ND and northwest MN, but areas generally north of
I-94 also hold a medium chance of seeing frost.

Additional chances for frost exist this weekend into next week,
particularly Sunday night into Monday morning.

The upper pattern remains in a quasi-zonal flow through the
weekend, with a shortwave trough forecast to move through around
Saturday. This will provide forcing for ascent bringing a medium
chance for rain showers. This wave is likely to be devoid of
overall moisture content, thus rain amounts are anticipated to
be rather low - less than quarter of an inch.

Ensemble guidance suggests in transient shortwave ridging early
next week, although the influence of this remains in question.
There could be a brief trend in temperatures toward slightly
above average temperatures; otherwise, temperatures are forecast
to remain near average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR thru the pd. Scattered to broken cirrus Fargo-Bemidji area
and southeast this morning then clearing out. Rest of the area
clear today. Northwest winds will increase with gusts 20-27 kts
across the area roughly between 15z and 00z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Riddle