562
FXUS63 KFGF 160453
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1153 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There remains a 2 of 5 risk for severe storms period 3AM
  Monday into Monday afternoon. Primary risk will be large hail
  and damaging wind gusts, with a lower risk for tornadoes.

- Active pattern keeps daily thunderstorm chances in the
  forecast nearly each day next week. Strong to severe storms
  are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

00Z CAMs continue to highlight the eventual development and
eastward progression of an MCS arriving Monday morning from the
western Dakotas, with a strong consensus on arrival in our west
after 09Z (3AM) and into the RRV after 11Z (6AM). Some CAMs
still show isolated cells developing ahead of this near the
SD/ND state line which could allow for earlier impacts before
09Z, but that isn`t a consistent signal.

Regarding severe: Steep mid level lapse rates and moist low
level flow arrive with a warm front building north ahead of a
mid level wave. The MCS is shown to rid along this frontal zone
where higher MUCAPE values 1000-3000 J/KG are advertised.
Profiles in the morning are elevated (as would be expected), and
the amount of instability and effective shear (30kt+) supports
a severe hail threat if stronger cores develop in a less linear
convective cluster/complex which is one scenario supported by
some CAMs. Despite the low levels likely being decoupled and the
MCS elevated, DCAPE around or over 1000 J/KG and 0-3km shear
around 30kt raises the potential for surges of 60-70 mph winds
within the complex if it remains linear and orientated normal
to the 0-3km flow (less of a hail threat). This is the second
scenario CAMs support. Ultimately, we`ll need to monitor
upstream trends as this develops during the Monday morning
hours.

This isn`t the only period of potential severe weather Monday
though, with a second potential round in our south-southeast
dependent on what happens in the morning (where surface
boundaries set and and clearing/recovery occurs).

UPDATE
Issued at 701 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Adjustments were made to PoPs/Wx to account for the area of
rain in west central MN that is now starting to transition to
the east-southeast, while isolated activity is ongoing farther
north. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with better chances
as a possible MCS arrives from the west as early as 09Z late
tonight. CAMs still vary on this, with scenarios ranging from a
weakening severe liner complex or a less organized cluster with
embedded stronger cores. The general consensus supports at
least a cluster arriving by 11-12Z in southeast ND then
spreading east. This will be monitored and predictability on
potential impacts (severe or sub severe) will remain confined to
the mesoanalysis period (1-3hr).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...Synopsis...

Active weather will be the main concern through much of the next
week. A 700mb shortwave moves across the Northern Plains tonight
into Monday, with a low level jet ushering moisture into the region.
While exact timing is uncertain, much of southeastern North Dakota
and west central Minnesota could see severe storms late tonight into
Monday morning, with another round possible during the afternoon.
Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, another chance for mainly
isolated to scattered thunderstorms is in the forecast as an upper
low traverses the Central Plains and Midwest. H5 flow becomes more
southwesterly Thursday through Sunday, with several potential
systems bringing continued chances for showers and thunderstorms,
some of which could be strong.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Overnight and Monday...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Monday
morning, then once more during the afternoon. Timing and intensity
will be significantly influenced by antecedent activity this
afternoon and evening across South Dakota. The 850mb low level jet
will bring in moisture return; however the axis of strongest
moisture return will be in South Dakota, then move eastward into
Minnesota. Just north of the jet, there will be decent pooling of
MUCAPE upwards of 2000 to 3000 J/Kg. This axis of MUCAPE will be
draped across parts of southeastern North Dakota and west central
Minnesota, with the most likely timing between 08Z and 12Z Monday.
While all hazards are possible, soundings strongly favor elevated
clusters and line segments that could produce large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Storm movement should follow a rather strong
CAPE gradient from west to east. Heading into the afternoon, another
round of severe storms is possible, but will depend on how slowly
the morning activity moves out of the area. Lapse rates and
directional shear look supportive of another chance for large hail
and damaging wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Variable flight conditions are expected through the TAF period
across eastern ND and northwest MN due to impacts from stratus
and shower/thunderstorm chances. MVFR and period of IFR ceilings
are expected to overspread the region early in the TAF period.
The best chance for IFR conditions will be in the 10-16Z
period. There is a low chance for patchy fog to impact eastern
ND through 12Z, but confidence was too low to include in the
TAFs.

Thunderstorm chances increase after 09Z west to east as a
thunderstorm complex spreads east from the western Dakotas, and
will eventually spread across the region before coverage
decreases midday. There is still a chance for additional
thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon, though they will
depend on where fronts set up (lower confidence). I focused on
timing of coverage when current guidance shows the most
consensus in the morning across all TAF sites. Some of these
thunderstorms may be strong or severe with higher gusts 50kt and
hail threats, but confidence in those impacts at TAF sites is
low at this range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR