117
FXUS63 KFGF 020414
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled week ahead. Shower and thunderstorm chances spread
  east Tuesday into Wednesday, then again Friday into Saturday.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Tuesday afternoon and evening over the Devils Lake Basin.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Wednesday afternoon and evening over eastern North Dakota and
  the Red River valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...Synopsis...

An active weather pattern will continue this week as the H5 ridge
axis flattens and moves slowly to the east. A cut off low remains in
place in eastern Montana this afternoon, but will be drifting slowly
to the northeast tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be a
source of showers and thunderstorms over the next several days
before merging with the H5 flow and moving eastward late this week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected both Tuesday and
Wednesday, with impact areas depending on the progression of the
aforementioned upper low and the associated shortwaves. Moving into
Thursday and Friday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain in
the forecast, mainly across the southern portions of the CWA. Timing
remains quite uncertain, however, especially Friday onward into the
weekend. At this time, there are low chances for showers and storms
on Saturday, with a return to potentially strong storms heading into
Sunday and Monday.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Tuesday...

An axis of instability will be in place Tuesday across central North
Dakota. As this axis moves east, thunderstorms are expected to
develop starting during the early afternoon, then move slowly
eastward through late evening. Model soundings have been
consistently showing strong low and mid level lapse rates, as well
as MLCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/Kg range. Low and mid level shear,
however, will be tied closely to the axis of instability. As storms
form and move to the east, they will be moving into an environment
with much lower shear and instability, thus potentially limiting the
eastward extent of severe thunderstorms. Several scenarios are
possible, which will be strongly dependent on where the boundary
sets up during the afternoon. Currently, the best chances exist
across the Devils Lake Basin and areas to the south and west. Storm
mode currently favors supercells and/or hybrid clusters, with all
hazards possible.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday...

Heading into Wednesday, the H5 upper low moves slightly further to
the east, thus bringing our axis of instability further into eastern
North Dakota. Where it ends up will depend on a number of factors;
however, there will be another boundary pushing to the southeast
later Wednesday afternoon. This will serve to provide additional
lift and forcing, further supporting thunderstorm development during
the afternoon and evening. Initiation timing is also a bit uncertain
at this time, mainly because there could be remnant showers ongoing
during the morning hours and limiting daytime heating. The
environment will be supportive of severe storms as MLCAPE climbs to
near 2000 J/Kg and lapse rates remain strong. Low to mid level shear
will be located close to the boundary once more; however, better
forcing is expected as the reinforcing boundary pushes to the
southeast during the afternoon and evening. Current storm mode
favors hybrid clusters, followed by the potential for upscale growth
into line segments and/or QLCS. Once more, soundings support all
hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Mainly VFR through the period with some thunderstorms across
eastern North Dakota mainly impacting DVL and GFK after 18z.
highest confidence is in DVL from 22-02z with shouldering
shra/tsra chances on either side of that window. Winds
generally 10-15kts from the SE with a few gusts to 25kts but
widespread gusts over 30kts outside of thunderstorms appear
unlikely. CIGS east of the river remaining VFR through west into
ND could occasionally drop to MVFR in thunderstorms/rain.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT