578
FXUS63 KFGF 211135
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
535 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A more active pattern is possible next week, with the
  potential for minor winter impacts across parts of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 511 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...Synopsis...

Northwest H5 flow prevails today into Saturday, with ridging
building into the Northern Plains from west to east. This will serve
to bring warmer temperatures into the area today through the
weekend, and into the early part of next week. High temperatures
today will reach the mid 30s to mid 40s, with the coolest temps
expected around Lake of the Woods. For Saturday and Sunday, highs
will reach the mid 40s to low 50s, with similar temps on Monday.
Ensemble consistency has been somewhat stable and in relatively good
agreement through the weekend; however, there is still a good bit of
uncertainty heading into Tuesday. Most ensemble suites are
developing a trough in western Canada, while a separate H5 low forms
in the southwest US. The interaction of these two features will
ultimately determine our impact potential as the two systems move
eastward. At this time, there is a chance for light rain Tuesday
morning, transitioning to snow from west to east, then persisting
through the remainder of the day and into Wednesday morning. It is
worth noting that timing is still rather uncertain as the two
systems are still several days out. Regardless of the precip
scenario, there is higher confidence that cold air will return to
the region by late next week, with temperatures expected to fall
below average heading into Thursday and Friday.

...Winter Weather Possible Next Week...

Two separate systems are expected to interact as we head into the
Monday through Wednesday time frame. A trough is expected to form in
western Canada, then move to the east and southeast into the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A separate H5 trough moves out of
the southwestern US and combines with the northern trough late
Monday or early Tuesday. This should allow moisture return into the
area, with light rain Monday and a transition to rain/snow mix, then
snow Tuesday morning. There is a large range of solutions regarding
rain and snow amounts, which all depend on when and where the two
systems converge, and the strength of the systems when this
happens. Overall, there is increasing confidence that winter
impacts could be in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. At
this time, there is a 10 to 20 percent chance for moderate
impacts and a 40 to 50 percent chance for minor impacts across
much of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. LREF probs
show a 60 percent chance for 1 inch of snow or greater for most
areas north of Highway 2. Winds are expected to increase as the
system departs the region, allowing for the mention of gusts
out of the northwest up to 30 mph. More details will follow in
the coming updates as near term guidance becomes available and
confidence increases in the timing of the systems.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at all sites.
Light and variable winds this morning will increase out of the
south heading into the afternoon, ranging from 5 to 10 knots. A
shift to the west will start this evening and continue overnight
into Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch