920
FXUS63 KFGF 051754
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1254 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain is expected over most of northeastern North Dakota and
  far northwest Minnesota tonight into Sunday. There is a high
  chance for greater than 1 inch of rainfall across northeast
  North Dakota.

- A period of strong northwest winds gusting up to 55 mph
  through the afternoon.

- There is a chance for frost during the morning hours Monday
  through Wednesday over parts of the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Made several changes to the wind advisory with this update.
Winds have been consistently gusting 45-55 mph in eastern ND,
therefore raised expected gusts up to 55 mph. Pressure rises of
up to 10 mb over the past three hours are pushing through
southeastern ND, along with the strongest pocket of CAA. On
their current trajectory, they will arrive in west central MN
early to mid afternoon. Already seeing widespread gusts near 40
in that area, with Park Rapids even reporting 46 mph.
Therefore, expanded the wind advisory over all of west central
MN. The entire advisory was also extended in time to 7 PM.

UPDATE
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Winds are rapidly increasing across the Devils Lake Basin and
James River Valley, with pressure rises of up to 8mb over the
last three hours over central ND. These winds will spread into
the Red River Valley during the late morning/early afternoon,
gusting to 50 mph. Elsewhere, rain continues in the Devils Lake
Basin, where up to an inch and a half of rain has already
fallen. Updated grids to reflect this area of persistent rain
through the early afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A bit more dry air pushing into the central and northern RRV,
but additional showers and thunderstorms developing in the
southern Valley will push their way north. Eventually the entire
system will slowly move east and the cold front will push all
the way through. Made some minor adjustments to POPs but overall
forecast remains the same.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...Synopsis...

Main upper trough remains over the Northern Rockies, but water
vapor loop shows several lead shortwaves starting to swing into
the Dakotas this morning. Surface low pressure currently over
the James River Valley will lift northeastward into Ontario
today, and the cold front will push the rest of the way through
the CWA. Surface high pressure building in behind the front will
bring significantly colder air for the first part of the work
week, with much of the CWA getting into the 30s for lows. Brief
ridging building in Wednesday and again for the end of the week
will bring some above average temps back in for the later parts
of the forecast. However, signal for warmth is not nearly as
strong and highs look to be in the 70s instead of 90s.

...Rain today...

Fairly widespread rain across the Devils Lake Basin associated
with the mid-level deformation zone, which should move slowly
eastward through the morning before tapering off late this
afternoon. A few spots in Benson county have already seen more
than a half an inch of rain so far, with more expected.
Probabilities of getting above an inch are 80 to 90 percent
across much of northeastern ND, although chances of rain
amounts over 2 inches are less than 20 percent. With that, not
anticipating any issues other than annoyance from agricultural
interests and those with outdoor weekend plans.

...Wind advisory today...

HREF probabilities of gusts over 45 mph are very high in west
central MN early this morning in the southerly flow out ahead of
the low. However, in reality the gusts are more around 25 to 30
mph. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten as the surface
low deepens over the Red River Valley around 12Z. The north
winds on the backside of the system will be aided by cold air
advection and strong pressure rises, helping bring 45 kt low
level jet to the surface during the mid to late morning. HREF
probs for above 45 kts are above 60 percent in portions of the
northern Red River Valley. Some of the CAMs also show signs of a
sting jet, but not confident enough in this kind of feature to
go any higher than advisory. Winds across most of eastern ND
into the Red River Valley counties of MN will be at advisory
level at some point today. Elected to keep headlines simple for
a wind advisory and can cancel early if needed.

...Frost potential tonight into Wednesday morning...

The surface high building in quickly this evening will bring
decreasing clouds and winds to at least northwestern portions of
our CWA. Temps will drop down into the 30s, with chances of 36
or below above 50 percent for much of eastern ND into
northwestern MN tonight. Some high probabilities of below 32 up
in Towner county also. The chances for frost will continue into
tomorrow night as well as Tuesday night with the upper trough
continuing over the area and another reinforcing push of cooler
air expected Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Windy this afternoon, with gusts up to 45 knots at KGFK, KFAR
and KTVF. Gusts up to 35 knots at KDVL and KBJI. Winds will
slowly subside this evening, with gusts dropping off after
sunset. Rain/showers have been on the decrease, with only a few
more hours of potential showers at KGFK and KTVF. Ceilings will
lift throughout the afternoon/evening, with VFR by the overnight
hours. Monday looks to bring VFR ceilings and visibilities,
along with much lighter winds only up to 12 knots or so.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty