945
FXUS63 KFGF 012202
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and gusty winds Tuesday evening into early
  Wednesday morning. This may degrade travel conditions,
  particularly within the southern Red River Valley.

- Intervals of below average temperatures through the rest of
  the week, along with snow chances after Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals large, broad upper
troughing extending from Hudson Bay into the central CONUS. A
shortwave trough is viewable within the Canadian Rockies and
Pacific Northwest. Ensemble guidance brings this shortwave
trough through the Northern Plains, although without much
deepening. This also brings a weak surface low pressure and
accompanying cold front through our region Tuesday into early
Wednesday. The weak low and cold front will bring gusty winds
and light snow to the region, perhaps degrading travel impacts
some.

Well below average temperatures follow behind this cold front
Wednesday into Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to favor
northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
late this week through the weekend. This will maintain intervals
of below average temperatures while introducing snow chances
Thursday through the rest of the week.

...Snow and gusty winds late Tuesday and early Wednesday...

High resolution and ensemble guidance brings in relatively deep
boundary layer saturation (~2-3km) with the weak wave and
accompanying cold front. This increase in moisture comes with
preceding warm air advection followed by moderately strengthed
cold air advection ahead and behind the front, respectively.
This will generate broad area of light snow ahead and behind
the front. Because of the weak synoptic forcing and progressive
nature of this wave, accumulations are still anticipated to be
light, ranging from a few tenths of an inch up to 1 or 2 inches.

Behind the cold front late Tuesday, the moderately strengthed
cold air advection will help transfer gusty winds aloft toward
the surface. Sustained winds around 15-25 mph are forecast,
highest within the Red River Valley. Within the Valley, the
forecast north-northwest wind direction amid cold air advection
will activate the funneling-effect the Red River Valley can
have, locally increasing winds.

This may be important given a blowable snowpack in the southern
Red River Valley. With anticipated temperatures in the single
digits above zero late Tuesday into early Wednesday, winds
around 30-35 mph will be able to bring impactful blowing snow
with brief/isolated visibilities less than quarter mile in open
country.

While chances for sustained winds in this range are around 10%,
frequent gusts of 30-35 mph are around 70%. This could linger
into the early morning commute within the southern Red River
Valley Wednesday morning. Thus, impacts to travel conditions may
occur.

...Variable temperatures and snow chances late week...

While ensemble guidance is in rather good agreement on
northwest flow aloft late this week, they do disagree in
evolution of several shortwave troughs riding a baroclinic zone
paralleling flow aloft. Should these troughs move closer to our
area, chance for snow as well as snow amounts would increase.
This may result in several days of periodic snow chances,
including accumulations that may be impactful. The evolution and
track of these shortwave troughs will also influence winds
across the region, bringing their own potential for impacts.

Regardless, confidence is too low to comment on potential for
impacts beyond Thursday from snow and wind, as predictability in
synoptic evolution/track as well as mesoscale features is too
low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Area MVFR and IFR ceilings will linger within Minnesota through
06Z tonight. This is also producing light snow, with visibility
at times dipping to around 2SM.

There is a 20% chance in fog tonight within portions of
southeast ND as well as into northwest and west-central
Minnesota between 02Z-07Z before winds increase and mitigate
this chance.

Winds increase out of the south around 10-15kt ahead of an
approaching cold front between 09-18Z Tuesday. This will also
bring lowered ceilings in the MVFR to IFR categories, starting
within North Dakota working east and southeast through the
afternoon into evening. Light snow also accompanies these
lowered ceilings.

Winds then shift out of the north 10-20kt, gusting up to 30kt
within the Red River Valley, behind the cold front after 18Z
Tuesday, with continued lowered ceilings and light snow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ