939
FXUS63 KFGF 270149
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
849 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory for much of eastern North Dakota and west
  central Minnesota today.

- Extreme Heat Warning for the central and southern Red River
  Valley today.

- There is a threat for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  across northwest Minnesota today with a primary threat for
  hail up to a golf ball in size.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Hot temperatures around 90 with higher Tds in the low to middle
70s are resulting in heat index values 100-110 lingering over
parts of the Red River Valley and west central MN this evening.
Other locations are seeing gradual improvement. Where the
Extreme Heat Warning is in place represents the locations where
impacts are likely to linger and the warning was extended
through 11 PM CDT, while the advisories are being allowed to
expire as scheduled at the top of the hour.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...Synopsis...

Expansive ridging remains dominate over the western/central
CONUS this Sunday afternoon. Our region is under its
northeastern most influence. Over the top of the ridge, a ridge
riding wave is passing to our north and east. This brings a
highly conditional threat for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over portions of northwestern MN.
Persistent heat will continue into this week as ridging
remains present in some form.

...Heat Continues...

Today is another hot day. Temperatures have climbed into the
mid/upper 90s in the central and southern Red River Valley, and are
not far behind across much of the rest of the FA. Heat
headlines are in effect this afternoon, with the hottest
conditions expected in the central/southern Red River Valley.
As we go through the work week, ridging will remain in control
over the western/central US, although there are some
disagreements in its magnitude and exactly how far eastward its
axis sets up. Therefore, temperatures will remain above average,
with afternoon highs in the 90s across much of the FA until at
least midweek. Thereafter, depending on the ridges
amplitude/placement, temperatures will either slightly cool into
the 80s, or remain elevated into the 90s. It is during this
late week period NBM temperature spreads start to increase,
showcasing well ensemble model disagreement surrounding the
ridge.

...Severe Storms Today...

A persistent WAA regime has been in place over northwestern MN this
morning, allowing for storms to develop earlier today. However,
low level flow has been weakening into the early afternoon.
There is indication within some model guidance that flow will
increase slightly again later today during the evening hours as
a shortwave rounds the ridge. This may be enough forcing to get
a storm or two to develop. If a storm can form, effective shear
of over 40 knots and ample instability will help organize
storms, with supercells capable of severe hail being the primary
threat. It will be very difficult to get a storm to form
further south in west central MN, as this area is far from any
forcing and fighting a stout cap.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the TAF period
across eastern ND and northwest MN. There is still a low chance
for a thunderstorm to move through the region this evening
(mainly northwest MN), but trends have been towards better
chances remaining east.

A plume of smoke is visible on satellite moving into the region
from the northwest behind a weak wave and along an approaching
cold front. UND LiDAR at Emerado, ND is sampling this layer
well with the densest plume aloft likely around 6kft this
evening. Surface visibility trends should generally be towards
VFR, however as the smoke aloft moves into the region there is
still a chance for brief/localized MVFR visibility impacts in ND
behind the front as the winds shift to the the northwest.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Extreme Heat Warning until 11 PM CDT this evening for
     NDZ027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 11 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ001>003-022-024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...DJR