Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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636 FXUS63 KFGF 020526 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1126 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow and gusty winds Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. This may degrade travel conditions, particularly within the southern Red River Valley. - Intervals of below average temperatures through the rest of the week, along with snow chances after Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1002 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 The surface trough axis has shifted into the RRV with BL flow more to the west-southwest keeping lower clouds in MN, while a mid level deck is starting to approach the region from the northwest (still over the Turtle Mountains). This is along the leading edge of the next approaching mid level wave (mentioned in previous discussions). Under the stratus in our east and the mid level deck to the northwest, flurries have been periodically reported, but overall impacts are minimal. As with previous update, only minor adjustments were necessary to near term trends. UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Stratus/flurries are lingering in MN which mostly clear skies are in place across more of ND (though there have been a few stubborn pockets rebuilding in northeast ND). In the regions of clearing temperatures are dropping quickly as would be expected especially over regions with deeper snowpack. Near term adjustments were made to reflect current trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals large, broad upper troughing extending from Hudson Bay into the central CONUS. A shortwave trough is viewable within the Canadian Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Ensemble guidance brings this shortwave trough through the Northern Plains, although without much deepening. This also brings a weak surface low pressure and accompanying cold front through our region Tuesday into early Wednesday. The weak low and cold front will bring gusty winds and light snow to the region, perhaps degrading travel impacts some. Well below average temperatures follow behind this cold front Wednesday into Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to favor northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late this week through the weekend. This will maintain intervals of below average temperatures while introducing snow chances Thursday through the rest of the week. ...Snow and gusty winds late Tuesday and early Wednesday... High resolution and ensemble guidance brings in relatively deep boundary layer saturation (~2-3km) with the weak wave and accompanying cold front. This increase in moisture comes with preceding warm air advection followed by moderately strengthen cold air advection ahead and behind the front, respectively. This will generate broad area of light snow ahead and behind the front. Because of the weak synoptic forcing and progressive nature of this wave, accumulations are still anticipated to be light, ranging from a few tenths of an inch up to 1 or 2 inches. Behind the cold front late Tuesday, the moderately strengthen cold air advection will help transfer gusty winds aloft toward the surface. Sustained winds around 15-25 mph are forecast, highest within the Red River Valley. Within the Valley, the forecast north-northwest wind direction amid cold air advection will activate the funneling-effect the Red River Valley can have, locally increasing winds. This may be important given a blowable snowpack in the southern Red River Valley. With anticipated temperatures in the single digits above zero late Tuesday into early Wednesday, winds around 30-35 mph will be able to bring impactful blowing snow with brief/isolated visibilities less than quarter mile in open country. While chances for sustained winds in this range are around 10%, frequent gusts of 30-35 mph are around 70%. This could linger into the early morning commute within the southern Red River Valley Wednesday morning. Thus, impacts to travel conditions may occur. ...Variable temperatures and snow chances late week... While ensemble guidance is in rather good agreement on northwest flow aloft late this week, they do disagree in evolution of several shortwave troughs riding a baroclinic zone paralleling flow aloft. Should these troughs move closer to our area, chance for snow as well as snow amounts would increase. This may result in several days of periodic snow chances, including accumulations that may be impactful. The evolution and track of these shortwave troughs will also influence winds across the region, bringing their own potential for impacts. Regardless, confidence is too low to comment on potential for impacts beyond Thursday from snow and wind, as predictability in synoptic evolution/track as well as mesoscale features is too low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1126 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 VFR conditions are currently prevailing across eastern ND with mid level clouds (10000 FT AGL) starting to move into the region from the northwest. MVFR stratus over northwest MN has eroded some on the western edge of the cloud deck, but has generally held firm as the main shift in BL flow is still to the west in ND and the Red River Valley. Guidance supports IFR ceilings for a period of the morning hours before sunrise Tuesday within this region of stratus, with improvement to VFR favored mid to late morning as low pressure finally shifts east. A mid level wave will bring light snow to the region from the northwest to southeast, with the best chances for light accumulating snow and visibility reductions in northeast ND and northwest MN. Low pressure and a cold front passing through the region also bring widespread stratus and shifting and increasing winds from the south to west then northwest Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...DJR