708
FXUS63 KFGF 030533
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1133 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty north winds and patchy blowing snow could lead to
  visibility reductions late this evening and overnight, with
  the highest chances in the southern Red River Valley.

- Intervals of below average temperatures through the rest of
  the week, along with snow chances from Thursday into the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

After the initial period of stronger wind gusts as 925MB CAA
moved down the valley, winds have somewhat leveled off in our
north, though stronger 925MB winds (30kt) are still in place
overnight and with falling temperatures snow pack may become
easier to drift/blow (particularly south), so we`ll have to
continue to monitor trends through the overnight/early morning
hours. Most current visibility impacts in the near term are
driven by lingering light snow shower that are developing due
to the steeper low level lapse rates in place and low level
shear leading to some HCR type shower activity. Adjustments
were made to linger mention of snow and to adjust for potential
stratocumulus lingering longer Wednesday.

UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Winds have picked up in northeast ND as CAA and northerly BL
flow is aligned with our valley, with flurries lingering behind
the main area of light snow (ahead of the cold front). There is
a small window in southeast ND/west central MN for freezing
drizzle right ahead of the cold front before wetbulb temps
rapidly drop behind the cold front as ice aloft is limited. That
window may already be closing as temperatures at the surface are
-10C (14F) and falling (north to south). Visibility reductions
 (3-6sm) appear to be related to flurries and limited blowing
 snow where winds are picking up. This will be monitored, but it
 appears impacts may be limited in our CWA from icing.

The impacts from blowing snow and any potential for localized
whiteout conditions will continue to be dependent on the nature
of snow pack in the southern RRV as the stronger winds arrive
and temperatures drop closer to 10 or less later tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...Synopsis...

A cold front continues to move southward out of Manitoba this
afternoon, bringing light snow and gusty north winds into the
region. Look for the potential for blowing snow in areas that have
deeper snow pack, especially areas south of Highway 200. Cold high
pressure settles into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Wednesday, with high temps only expected to reach the single digits.
Lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning are likely to fall well
below zero for most areas, with the coldest spots being
collocated with the deeper snow pack in southeast North Dakota
and west central Minnesota. Heading into Thursday afternoon, a
weak shortwave brings a chance of light snow to the area along
the baroclinic zone. Probability for greater than 1 inch is
rather low, around 40 percent in northwest Minnesota, with lower
probs elsewhere. Several additional troughs move through the
area late Friday onward into the weekend and early next week.
Confidence is low in snowfall potential at this time; however,
there is good consensus supporting an active pattern through at
least the middle of next week.

...Gusty Winds and Patchy Blowing Snow Tonight...

North winds prevail following today`s cold front. The combination of
these winds, along with light snow, and a favorable wind direction,
could bring periods of low visibility overnight. Upstream
observations in Pembina County, as well as webcams in southern
Manitoba, show visibility as low as 1-2 miles this afternoon over a
relatively low snow pack. As the front passes through the southern
Red River Valley this evening, over the deeper snow pack, we could
see sharply reduced visibility, especially in open areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Widespread MVFR stratus is in place across eastern ND and
northwest MN behind a cold front that pushed through the region
earlier. Light snow showers are lingering early in the TAF
period, however only localized visibility reductions below 6sm
have been reported. There is a low chance for blowing snow
impacts as well, mainly in southeast ND early in the TAF period,
but so far this has yet to show impact impacts near KFAR.
Northwest winds will decrease some with the loss of higher
mixed layer winds Wednesday morning, but likely won`t decrease
below 12kt until late afternoon/evening.

There are some clearing regions upstream in northerly flow that
may allow for VFR to return during the first 6hr of the TAF
period, however this is also the type of pattern that new
stratocumulus may reform which may not be well reflected in
current guidance. Whether this amounts to lingering MVFR
ceilings or just a scattered layer is hard to say as drier air
will be arriving that may limit coverage Wednesday in ND. The
best chance for MVFR to linger into Wednesday afternoon remains
in northwest MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR