912
FXUS63 KFGF 011433
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
933 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impactful weather is not expected through next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Again no changes needed to the forecast with clouds becoming
increasingly patchy in eastern North Dakota and highs looking to
potentially reach the mid 40s in the Red River Valley today.

UPDATE
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Clouds remain stuck over the area, with temperatures holding
steady in the mid 30s as we approach sunrise. Very few changes
needed to the going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...Synopsis...

The upper level low that brought precipitation to areas across
the region over the past 24 hours has dove south and eastward
towards the Missouri/Iowa/Illinois border. Meanwhile upstream
ridging is apparent on water vapor, which will build in for the
weekend. This will result in warming temperatures, with highs
in the 50s to low 60s on Sunday. Thereafter, temperatures will
drop a few degrees as a low traveling across the southern
Canadian Prairies drags its attendant cold front through this
FA. Temperatures will remain fairly consistent ranging from the
40s to 50s for highs all week, as zonal flow/broad ridging sets
up over the central CONUS. Precipitation looks limited to a few
low predictability, weak shortwaves. Therefore, only occasional
low PoPs are in the forecast. By late week, troughing over the
Great Lakes will set up some form of northwest flow over the
Northern Plains. Ensembles are becoming more consistent in
bringing a bit stronger shortwave through very late in the
workweek into next weekend. Where exactly the upper level jet is
will determine the track of the system, along with the
associated area of heaviest precipitation. At this time,
ensembles favor a track that keeps the heaviest precipitation
in southern Canada. Much can change being a week out though, so
it will be something to watch as the week goes on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Ceilings are extremely variable early this morning. Current
observations show areas of VFR, MVFR and IFR. There are even a
handful of pockets of clearing. As we go through the morning
hours, ceilings will generally improve, with everyone up to
MVFR/VFR by afternoon. TAFs show this general trend, which could
occur a little slower or faster then indicated. Winds will
shift around from the north this morning to the south by the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty/TT
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty