636
FXUS63 KFGF 020526
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1126 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and gusty winds Tuesday evening into early
  Wednesday morning. This may degrade travel conditions,
  particularly within the southern Red River Valley.

- Intervals of below average temperatures through the rest of
  the week, along with snow chances after Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The surface trough axis has shifted into the RRV with BL flow
more to the west-southwest keeping lower clouds in MN, while a
mid level deck is starting to approach the region from the
northwest (still over the Turtle Mountains). This is along the
leading edge of the next approaching mid level wave (mentioned
in previous discussions). Under the stratus in our east and the
mid level deck to the northwest, flurries have been periodically
reported, but overall impacts are minimal. As with previous
update, only minor adjustments were necessary to near term
trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 702 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Stratus/flurries are lingering in MN which mostly clear skies
are in place across more of ND (though there have been a few
stubborn pockets rebuilding in northeast ND). In the regions of
clearing temperatures are dropping quickly as would be expected
especially over regions with deeper snowpack. Near term
adjustments were made to reflect current trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals large, broad upper
troughing extending from Hudson Bay into the central CONUS. A
shortwave trough is viewable within the Canadian Rockies and
Pacific Northwest. Ensemble guidance brings this shortwave
trough through the Northern Plains, although without much
deepening. This also brings a weak surface low pressure and
accompanying cold front through our region Tuesday into early
Wednesday. The weak low and cold front will bring gusty winds
and light snow to the region, perhaps degrading travel impacts
some.

Well below average temperatures follow behind this cold front
Wednesday into Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to favor
northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
late this week through the weekend. This will maintain intervals
of below average temperatures while introducing snow chances
Thursday through the rest of the week.

...Snow and gusty winds late Tuesday and early Wednesday...

High resolution and ensemble guidance brings in relatively deep
boundary layer saturation (~2-3km) with the weak wave and
accompanying cold front. This increase in moisture comes with
preceding warm air advection followed by moderately strengthen
cold air advection ahead and behind the front, respectively.
This will generate broad area of light snow ahead and behind
the front. Because of the weak synoptic forcing and progressive
nature of this wave, accumulations are still anticipated to be
light, ranging from a few tenths of an inch up to 1 or 2 inches.

Behind the cold front late Tuesday, the moderately strengthen
cold air advection will help transfer gusty winds aloft toward
the surface. Sustained winds around 15-25 mph are forecast,
highest within the Red River Valley. Within the Valley, the
forecast north-northwest wind direction amid cold air advection
will activate the funneling-effect the Red River Valley can
have, locally increasing winds.

This may be important given a blowable snowpack in the southern
Red River Valley. With anticipated temperatures in the single
digits above zero late Tuesday into early Wednesday, winds
around 30-35 mph will be able to bring impactful blowing snow
with brief/isolated visibilities less than quarter mile in open
country.

While chances for sustained winds in this range are around 10%,
frequent gusts of 30-35 mph are around 70%. This could linger
into the early morning commute within the southern Red River
Valley Wednesday morning. Thus, impacts to travel conditions may
occur.

...Variable temperatures and snow chances late week...

While ensemble guidance is in rather good agreement on
northwest flow aloft late this week, they do disagree in
evolution of several shortwave troughs riding a baroclinic zone
paralleling flow aloft. Should these troughs move closer to our
area, chance for snow as well as snow amounts would increase.
This may result in several days of periodic snow chances,
including accumulations that may be impactful. The evolution and
track of these shortwave troughs will also influence winds
across the region, bringing their own potential for impacts.

Regardless, confidence is too low to comment on potential for
impacts beyond Thursday from snow and wind, as predictability in
synoptic evolution/track as well as mesoscale features is too
low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across eastern ND with
mid level clouds (10000 FT AGL) starting to move into the region
from the northwest. MVFR stratus over northwest MN has eroded
some on the western edge of the cloud deck, but has generally
held firm as the main shift in BL flow is still to the west in
ND and the Red River Valley. Guidance supports IFR ceilings for
a period of the morning hours before sunrise Tuesday within this
region of stratus, with improvement to VFR favored mid to late
morning as low pressure finally shifts east.

A mid level wave
will bring light snow to the region from the northwest to
southeast, with the best chances for light accumulating snow
and visibility reductions in northeast ND and northwest MN. Low
pressure and a cold front passing through the region also bring
widespread stratus and shifting and increasing winds from the
south to west then northwest Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR