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000
FXUS63 KFGF 261139
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
639 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A small pocket of dense fog finally formed along our far northwest
CWA border (western Benson County), but other than this our CWA
has remained clear with no other vis reductions. HRRR/NBM
indicate this fog will move east-southeast, but remain
progressive/localized in impacts before burning off with daytime
heating. I won`t read too much into model specifics as this hasn`t
been handled well, but considering the localized nature/limited
impacts an advisory probably won`t be needed if that is how this
plays out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

-Patchy fog is possible this morning, mainly over the Devils Lake
Basin.

-Light snow will be possible Monday, though the probability for
accumulations and minor winter travel impacts is low.

The large scale pattern features northwest flow aloft as a Hudson
Bay low continues to build and strengthen over the next 24hr. At the
surface high pressure remains centered to our west, with low
pressure over the Great Lakes. Good radiational conditions have
resulted in temperatures dropping to around zero (some colder spots
briefly hitting -10 earlier this morning). Warmer temperatures in
the teens above have remained in the forested areas of MN closer to
low pressure and slightly stronger surface pressure gradients.
Guidance has struggled with location/coverage of stratus/fog
formation often overdoing coverage. Still, closer to the surface
high we are seeing some fog formation (just west of our CWA) and
short range guidance shows this possibly developing east into our
western CWA during the morning hours. Dense pockets can`t be ruled
out, though confidence is low on coverage/duration.

Rest of today-Monday: Considering trends in guidance to overestimate
low cloud cover during the daytime periods, we may remain clear in
most areas until mid-high clouds arrive later in the day. This may
allow us to run a few degrees warmer than base NBM, though this
still would result in highs in the 20s for most this afternoon
(above freezing in the forested areas of MN). A weak mid level
impulse moves over the region within NW flow aloft Monday. Weak PVA
and a cold front move over the region, and there is a signal for
light QPF between various models. This is less consistent from an
ensemble stand-point (NBM probs for even a dusting are less than
10%), though CAMs and deterministic guidance shows some areas of
light accumulating snow. Ultimately this may just favor flurries as
drier northeast BL flow will be in place locally. Even if
accumulating snow were to occur impacts would be minimal (ensemble
probs for 1" are less than 10% during the day Monday).

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Although there are signals that another few systems could possibly
be in the forecast, the long term is currently low impact and has
potential to stay that way.

Starting the work week, theres a slight chance for snow showers in
the southern Valley, however, accumulations over a tenth of an inch
are unlikely at this time (less than 10% chance of occurrence).
Another system could move through from NW to SE on Tuesday, but
again, chances of greater than a tenth of an inch of accumulation in
24 hours remain low (less than or equal to 20%). These are weak
little impulses that are transient and do not appear to be organized
enough to drop more precipitation across the area.

During this time, temperatures will remain well below normal for the
end of March. Highs will rise from the low teens to the upper teens
and 20s into mid-week, but this arctic high seems to have a strong
hold on the region and a good influence over our temperatures.

That influence won`t last long however, as the high pushes to our
east and the possibility for a stronger system enters the picture.
Ensembles are pretty split right now on the possibility for
precipitation in our area, with some having us receive the brunt of
the precipitation and the others saying not so much. Right now, NBM
probs are 10-30% chance for greater than 2 inches, with greater
than 4 inches dropping to less than 20%. With the high degree of
uncertainty, we cannot say anything for certain, but the end of
next week bears watching.

Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 20s through the end of
the week, so we just have to keep hoping that maybe April will be
warmer or at least closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Patchy fog (VLIFR possible) is moving towards KDVL early this
morning, and there should be a period of at least temporary
impacts before this burns off. Guidance has been very inconsistent
on other parts of eastern ND and northwest MN, so I don`t want to
completely rule out brief ground fog formation during the 12-15Z
period. VFR conditions should prevail after any fog lifts this
morning through the evening (only mid-high clouds increasing west
to east). Prevailing winds should remain light (less than 12kt)
through most of the TAF period. Later tonight a cold front arrives
and northerly winds 10-12kt develop along with additional MVFR
stratus.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...DJR