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000
FXUS63 KFGF 272049
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
249 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

Warmer temperatures and breezy winds prevail this afternoon across
much of the area. Impacts are not expected. Look for highs ranging
from the lower 30s near Lake of the Woods to the middle 40s near
Valley City. For tonight, expect lows to fall into the lower teens
near the International Border, with low 20s south of I-94.

Heading into Sunday, a progressive clipper moves through the area
and gives us a chance for precipitation. Currently, blended and
ensemble guidance is in agreement regarding strength and placement;
however, this agreement is not persistent, and has only come about
in the most recent model runs. The latest probabalistic guidance
suggests less than a 20 percent chance for seeing 2 inches of
snow or more. Our best chances of around 1 inch of snow or more
will be around Lake of the Woods. Looking at timing, precipitation
chances increase during the late afternoon on Sunday. A rather
sharp temperature gradient remains in place with cooler
temperatures to the northeast of a line from Devils Lake to Fergus
Falls. Temperatures to the east of this line are expected to
remain at or below freezing, with middle to upper 30s to the south
and west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

Mainly quiet and seasonally mild for much of the week ahead. There
will only be a couple of chances for what should be minimally
impactful weather.

Ongoing system from Sun eve still most likely to affect the LOW
region, has been diminishing with respect to POP, possibly owing to
tendency of blends to wash out higher POP potential, which has been
stated in prior discussions. So we could wind up with a tad more QPF
than currently bargaining for during first part of Mon, at least.
The warm advection to 850mb and some loss of ice could
contribute to a wintry mix as well.

After that, mild temps will herald the early part of next week;
highs getting near or above 40 degrees on a few of the days.
Northwest to zonal flow will dominate the week, along with positive
height anomalies as a clipper approaches, to most likely affect
mainly LOW territory around mid week. Colder air behind it not
exactly frigid but could be accompanied by a burst of breeziness by
Fri with the tranquil velocities earlier in the week spinning up to
exceed 15 kts.

Most ensembles are tame with potential system at the end of the
period, and now operational versions of the GFS/ECMWF are more timid
as well as the energy may very well take a more southern track,
ending up over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

VFR conditions prevail across the region at all sites today. Mid-
level cloud cover continues to work across the area, with cloud
bases generally 9000 feet or higher. Winds through the afternoon
could become gusty with gusts up to 25 knots possible. A gradual
wind shift occurs later during the TAF period, with a return to
southerly surface flow.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Lynch