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000
FXUS63 KFGF 232109
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
309 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Minor travel impacts continue this afternoon into the evening
hours across west-central Minnesota and portions of southeastern
North Dakota. Further weather related impacts are expected tonight
as wind chill values drop into the 20 to 30 below zero range.

Light to moderate snow continues along and east of a line from
Gwinner to Thief River Falls in association with a low pushing
across the Central Plains. Further north, light snow has developed
along a cold front that will move across the northern Red River
Valley this afternoon and evening. Accumulations from the southern
system will reach the 1 to 3 inch range for storm totals, with
isolated higher amounts. Along the cold front, the convective nature
of the snow is allowing high snowfall rates, but with short
residence time. The snowfall expectation across the northern Valley
into northwest Minnesota will generally be in the 1 to 2 inch range.

For tonight, the cold front will shift our winds around out of the
northwest in the 10 to 15 mph range, with gusts to near 20 mph
directly following the front. This, combined with lows in the -13 to
-5 range, will bring wind chills as cold as 20 to 30 below zero for
areas along and north of Highway 200. The winds will diminish by mid-
morning Sunday. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are expected
through much of the day, with increasing cloud cover ahead of a fast-
moving clipper and surge of cold air. This will bring another chance
for snow across the Devils Lake Basin into the northern portions of
the Red River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

There is low probability for widespread impactful weather next week.
Temperatures start near to slightly colder than average next week
before trending warmer than average by week`s end.

Light snow from Sunday night may linger into Monday morning,
although is expected to end by afternoon at this time. A stalled
upper low will weaken in MB/ON through early next week with upper
troughing in the Southwest. Stronger jet dynamics build with the
Southwest trough ejecting into the Central Plains and Ohio Valley.
This keeps the "steering current" for shortwave troughs to move
through south of the region. With the Northern Plains stuck between
the two features, a stagnate height pattern will keep precip chances
low. Colder air trapped under the MB/ON upper low will be near the
region keeping temperatures near or slightly below average early to
mid next week. Temps below zero in the morning reach into single
digits to teens above zero through at least Wednesday.

Upper troughing in the Southwest breaks east and weakens around mid
week. There continues to be a strong consensus of upper ridging to
develop Wednesday to around Friday in the central CONUS. This will
promote a warming trend back towards above average. Guidance like
the NBM brings a chance (>30%) for reaching above freezing by Friday.
Guidance also indicates this ridging will be short lived as upper
troughing off of the Pacific coast tries to move east, although
spread within ensembles becomes pretty large when trying to handle
this late week wave break. While precipitation chances generally
increase next weekend, details remain very uncertain regarding any
potential forcing mechanisms that produce precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Snow currently being reported at KFAR, with IFR conditions. This
is expected to spread north and east through the midday and
afternoon, with additional snow possible in response to a
secondary system to the north. All sites will see a chance for
light snow through the evening and overnight before a cold front
pushes through the area tonight. Ceilings are expected to fall
into the MVFR to IFR range while snow is ongoing, with slow
improvement thereafter. MVFR to VFR conditions are expected by
12Z for KDVL, KGFK, and KFAR, with conditions improving by 17Z for
KTVF and KBJI.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-026-027-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
     MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

$$

SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...Lynch