Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
658
FGUS73 KFGF 121654
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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-
081-091-095-097-099-281200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1054 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...
This outlook covers the Red River of the North
and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.
...MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE SPRING FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN...
* This 90-day outlook covers the period from 2/16/2026 to 5/17/2026.
.OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
* Probabilities for exceeding Major, Moderate, Minor Flood Stage...
Major Flooding...
There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of major
flooding across the basin.
Moderate Flooding...
There is medium risk (35 to 65 percent chance) of moderate
flooding at Fargo/Moorhead, Oslo, and Pembina on the Red River. In
Minnesota, there is a medium risk of moderate flooding at Sabin on
the South Branch Buffalo River and Hallock on the Two Rivers River.
In North Dakota, there is a medium risk of moderate flooding at
Abercrombie on the Wild Rice River.
There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of moderate
flooding elsewhere across the basin.
Minor Flooding...
There is a high risk (greater than 65 percent chance) of minor
flooding at Fargo/Moorhead, Grand Forks/East Grand Forks, Oslo, and
Pembina on the Red River. In Minnesota, there is a high risk of minor
flooding at Sabin on the South Branch Buffalo River, Dilworth on the
Buffalo River, and Hallock on the Two Rivers River. In North Dakota,
there is a high risk of minor flooding at at Mapleton on the Maple
River.
There is a medium risk (35 to 65 percent chance) of minor flooding
at Wahpeton, Halstad, and Drayton on the Red River. In Minnesota,
there is a medium risk of minor flooding at Hendrum on the Wild Rice
River. In North Dakota, there is a medium risk of minor flooding at
Abercrombie on the Wild Rice River, Enderlin on the Maple River, and
Minto on the Forest River.
There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of minor
flooding elsewhere across the basin.
.OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...
Hydrologic and climate conditions which affect each of the several
factors that significantly determine the timing and magnitude of
spring snowmelt flooding within the Red River of the North are
discussed below:
* FALL PRECIPITATION AND SOIL MOISTURE...
Overall, fall precipitation (September-November 2025) was below
normal for the majority of the basin (exception being the far
northern basin near the international border). However, the fall
season did end with November precipitation being well below normal
which allowed soils to dry out a bit before freezing up. The US
Drought Monitor depicts abnormally dry conditions have persisted
throughout the winter across the central portion of the basin,
increasing to Moderate Drought into portions of west central
Minnesota.
* RIVER FLOWS...
At the end of December, USGS analyses indicated that the Red River
mainstem and its tributaries were flowing near normal for most while
slightly above normal across the far north.
* FROST DEPTHS...
Although shallow to start the winter, a late January cold snap
allowed the frost layer to deepen considerably, especially across the
south where little to no insulating snowpack exists. Frost depth
values now range from 25 to 35 inches basin-wide. Deeper frost may
contribute to greater runoff of snowmelt and spring precipitation.
* SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...
Snowfall (and associated water content) since December 1st is
running 50-75 percent of normal for the southern basin while 100-125
percent of normal across the north. Recent above normal temperatures
has eroded some of the snowpack across the region.
* FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED...
- Further snowpack growth,
- Rate of snowmelt/thaw,
- Heavy rain on snow or frozen ground during thaw or peak flood,
- Heavy rain on ice-covered rivers causing short-term ice jams.
* SHORT TERM FORECAST...
Well above normal temperatures are expected to continue into early
next week which will continue to erode the snowpack. There are
indications of a pattern shift next week which may bring colder and
more active weather back to the region.
* LONG TERM OUTLOOK...
Climate outlooks lean towards below normal temperatures this
spring which could lead to a delayed snowmelt runoff period.
Additional precipitation late this winter and into spring, along with
the timing/thaw cycle of any snowpack, will continue to be the most
important spring flood risk factors.
.NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
The next 2026 spring flood outlook will be issued on Thursday,
February 26, 2026.
.FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES...
The following message has two sections: the first gives the
current and normal/historical chances of river locations reaching
their minor, moderate, and major flood category. The second
gives the current chances of river locations rising above river
stages listed.
...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
Valid from February 16, 2026 to May 17, 2026
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal,
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical, or normal, conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding
Valid Period: 02/16/2026 - 05/17/2026
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
Red River of the North.....
WAHPETON 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 64 56 22 28 <5 14
HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : 19 26 <5 12 <5 <5
FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : 95 81 42 39 24 25
HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : 38 34 16 20 <5 11
GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : 70 59 20 28 <5 10
OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : 77 63 62 55 6 17
DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : 54 45 31 31 <5 11
PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : 73 51 46 42 13 21
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
Minnesota Tributaries.....
SABIN 13.0 15.0 19.0 : >95 57 46 15 <5 <5
HAWLEY 8.0 9.0 11.0 : 9 38 <5 23 <5 <5
DILWORTH 13.0 20.0 26.0 : >95 66 27 20 <5 <5
TWIN VALLEY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 8 16 <5 7 <5 <5
HENDRUM 20.0 28.0 32.0 : 57 51 11 18 <5 6
SHELLY 14.0 20.0 23.0 : 15 28 <5 10 <5 6
CLIMAX 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 13 22 <5 11 <5 7
HIGH LANDING 12.0 12.5 13.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
CROOKSTON 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 33 46 8 23 <5 8
ABOVE WARREN 67.0 71.0 75.0 : 5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALVARADO 106.0 108.0 110.0 : 27 22 10 15 <5 <5
HALLOCK 802.0 806.0 810.0 : >95 61 51 38 <5 10
ROSEAU 16.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 22 <5 13 <5 8
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
North Dakota Tributaries.....
ABERCROMBIE 20.0 22.0 28.0 : 54 40 46 33 19 18
VALLEY CITY 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 9 <5 7 <5 6
LISBON 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 7 10 <5 9 <5 6
KINDRED 16.0 19.0 20.5 : 12 15 7 9 <5 9
WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.0 20.0 21.0 : 8 11 7 9 <5 9
HARWOOD 84.0 86.0 91.0 : 28 25 26 20 8 9
ENDERLIN 9.5 12.0 14.0 : 46 25 10 9 <5 <5
MAPLETON 18.0 21.0 23.0 : 66 34 31 16 6 5
HILLSBORO 10.0 13.0 16.0 : 17 17 5 10 <5 <5
MINTO 6.0 8.0 11.0 : 43 21 20 8 <5 <5
WALHALLA 11.0 16.0 18.0 : 11 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
NECHE 18.0 19.0 20.5 : 18 28 15 26 10 21
LEGEND:
CS = Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
HS = Historical Simulation ( " " normal conditions)
FT = Feet (above gage zero datum)
...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by River Stage...
Valid from February 16, 2026 to May 17, 2026
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
WAHPETON 9.3 9.7 10.7 11.5 12.8 13.7 14.7
HICKSON 17.1 18.1 19.9 23.1 28.1 31.8 33.0
FARGO 17.8 19.0 20.8 23.1 29.9 33.2 34.8
HALSTAD 13.5 15.8 18.8 23.3 29.1 34.3 37.4
GRAND FORKS 22.5 23.7 26.9 32.7 38.2 42.4 45.3
OSLO 20.8 22.6 26.9 32.7 34.4 35.5 36.8
DRAYTON 22.9 24.2 27.6 33.1 38.9 40.3 41.5
PEMBINA 32.2 34.0 38.2 43.4 47.6 49.7 51.0
Minnesota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
SABIN 13.3 13.6 14.3 14.8 15.6 16.1 17.6
Buffalo River.....
HAWLEY 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.6 6.8 8.0 8.8
DILWORTH 13.9 15.0 16.6 18.9 20.1 21.6 23.1
Wild Rice River.....
TWIN VALLEY 4.7 4.9 5.5 6.7 7.9 9.7 10.7
HENDRUM 12.8 14.8 17.2 20.9 24.4 28.4 29.6
Marsh River.....
SHELLY 6.8 7.2 8.2 9.3 11.8 16.1 19.4
Sand Hill River.....
CLIMAX 8.7 9.6 11.1 11.9 16.0 20.7 24.7
Red Lake River.....
HIGH LANDING 3.4 3.5 4.1 5.3 6.9 8.4 10.2
CROOKSTON 8.8 9.1 10.5 12.9 16.1 18.0 21.4
Snake River.....
ABOVE WARREN 62.5 62.7 63.1 63.8 64.8 65.8 67.2
ALVARADO 100.5 100.9 101.7 103.8 106.4 108.0 108.8
Two Rivers River.....
HALLOCK 803.1 803.3 804.0 806.1 807.5 808.7 809.8
Roseau River.....
ROSEAU 7.1 7.3 7.6 9.0 10.2 11.5 14.4
North Dakota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
ABERCROMBIE 13.6 14.6 17.2 21.2 26.1 30.3 31.8
Sheyenne River.....
VALLEY CITY 6.6 6.9 7.7 10.0 11.9 13.9 14.8
LISBON 5.9 6.3 7.1 9.5 11.7 12.9 16.4
KINDRED 7.5 7.9 9.0 11.4 14.0 16.3 20.2
WEST FARGO DVRSN 10.8 10.8 10.9 13.0 15.1 17.2 21.0
HARWOOD 74.5 75.9 77.2 80.7 86.4 90.6 91.7
Maple River.....
ENDERLIN 5.7 6.3 7.7 8.9 10.9 12.0 13.6
MAPLETON 13.6 14.3 16.6 19.9 21.3 22.3 23.1
Goose River.....
HILLSBORO 3.9 4.1 4.8 6.0 8.6 11.4 13.4
Forest River.....
MINTO 3.5 3.7 4.3 5.5 7.6 9.0 9.4
Pembina River.....
WALHALLA 3.4 3.7 4.6 5.4 7.9 11.3 13.0
NECHE 6.2 6.6 8.3 10.4 15.6 20.5 21.0
.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...
This long-range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
river levels taken from the forecast hydrograph results of the NWS
Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model is run for
multiple scenarios starting at current river, snow, and soil
conditions using 70 years (1949-2019) of past precipitation and
temperatures that were experienced for those past years during the
timeframe of the outlook period. The crests are then ranked from
lowest to highest and assigned an exceedance probability.
A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4
These probabilities can be used for risk management as an indication
of the range of crests that may be possible during the valid period
of the outlook. However, note that it is possible that river levels
may still reach levels below the 95th percentile, or above the 5th
percentile, values.
.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...
Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued each month
typically the week after the third Thursday of the month.
Additional Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks are issued
several times leading up to the spring melt period, usually
bi-weekly on Thursdays beginning in mid February and ending in mid
March.
Exceedance information is also presented as graphs of the
probability of stage exceedance for the full period and for weekly
intervals throughout the period. These graphs, together with
explanations that help in interpreting them, can be found on the
NWS Grand Forks NWPS web page by clicking on "Rivers and Lakes"
above the map at www.weather.gov/fgf.
Current river levels across the Red River of the North and
Devils/Stump Lake basins are available on our web site.
Additionally, 7-day deterministic forecasts are issued at least
once a day when river forecast locations are expected to reach or
exceed their designated action stage throughout that period.
Refer to the separate Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook for Devils
and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and/or
low-water non-exceedance levels.
If you have any questions, please contact NWS Grand Forks at
701-772-0720.
You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
and on X at: @NWSGrandForks.
$$
www.weather.gov/fgf
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