226
FXUS65 KFGZ 152112
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
212 PM MST Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures are expected with afternoon highs
and overnight lows about 5-10 degrees below average lasting through
Friday. On Saturday and Sunday a fast moving ridge moves through with
temperatures warming back up to seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper level Low continues to track northeast towards
northern Utah. This will turn winds aloft into a north-
northwesterly direction allowing more cold air to move into the
area which should dry out most of the residual atmospheric
moisture. Pressure gradient should also relax which should allow
winds to calm down tonight and Thursday. This will lead to some
pretty cold temperatures Thursday morning, probably the coldest of
the season so far with readings 5-10 degrees below average.
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to keep Thursday`s maximum
temperatures about 5-10 degrees below average as the trough
trailing the upper level Low remains in place, with overnight lows
Friday morning again remaining 5-10 degrees below average and
Friday`s highs 5 degrees below average.

This weekend a shortwave ridge will allow high temperatures to
recover back to seasonal averages with no precipitation expected.
On Monday into Tuesday another trough moves by to the north of us
but at this time it looks like precipitation with this one stays
north of the Utah border and the only consequence is a 5 degree
cooldown and some breezy conditions. Solutions for this scenario
are still pretty fluid so we`ll monitor to see if this trend holds
or if another possibility sets up.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 15/18Z through Thursday 16/18Z...VFR
conditions persist with SCT-BKN cloud cover with cloud bases 5-10k
feet AGL. Expect gusty west-southwest winds, 20-30 kts, through
01-02Z, becoming light and variable thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/18Z through Saturday 18/18Z...VFR conditions
continue through the period with clear skies. Much lighter winds,
5-15 kts from the north-northeast, are forecast each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Drier and warmer conditions
are expected Thursday and Friday with much lighter winds, 5 to 15
mph out of the north to northeast. Overnight temperatures will be
cold, 5 to 10 degrees below average. Afternoon humidity will be in
the 20 to 30% range with moderate to good recoveries each night.

Saturday through Monday...Warm days and cold nights are likely to
continue through the weekend and into Monday with conditions
remaining dry. Afternoon winds remain light and from the north-
northeast on Saturday, returning to the southwest on Sunday.
Southwest winds look to grow stronger, 15 to 25 mph, on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff