106
FXUS65 KFGZ 160520
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Showers are gradually spreading from west to east
late tonight and into Sunday. Gusty winds and much cooler
temperatures are also expected. Continued cool and unsettled
conditions are expected to continue into much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Rest of today and tomorrow...A low pressure system
which has been spinning off the coast of California is finally
beginning its transit inland, then will push northeastward through
Sunday. South/southwest flow ahead of the approaching cyclone is
advecting ample moisture into Northern AZ today. The primary
impacts from this system will be gusty winds, periods of heavy
rainfall, and snow at the highest elevations. The first band of
showers has reached far western Yavapai and will continue to
spread eastward through the evening. The heaviest showers will come
early Sunday morning as precipitation organizes more along a
frontal band, then things wind down by Sunday evening. QPF totals
through Sunday evening are generally 0.1-0.3`` north of the Rim,
0.2-0.5`` in valleys south of the Rim, and 0.5-1.0`` along higher
terrain with localized 1+`` in certain upslope areas.

Now let`s talk snow. Due to the low center passing to our north,
things will stay warm enough to keep snow levels above 8500 ft
through the majority of the event. Snow levels look to drop by ~1000
ft Sunday afternoon as cooler air fills in behind the front. Hi-
res guidance indicates the possibility for a few showers along the
high terrain through Sunday evening, and thus some wet snowflakes
reaching down to 7000 ft cannot be ruled out.

Gusty winds are still anticipated as the trough axis passes. Winds
have begun to pick up this afternoon in western Coconino and Yavapai
counties, and will remain gusty downwind of terrain features
overnight. Gusts will stay elevated through Sunday afternoon at
around 25-35 mph with localized gusts over 40 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...After the first trough passage, drier
conditions set in Monday with just some isolated showers along the
high terrain.

By Tuesday, northern AZ begins to feel the influence of another low.
Strong southerly/southwesterly flow will bring another moisture
surge, and widespread precipitation chances return as early as
Tuesday morning. Ensemble members are still not in consensus on
the exact path of the closed low, however confidence is higher
that this mid-week event will feature lower 500 mb heights than
the weekend event. Colder temperatures are forecast and the signal
for high elevation snow is a bit stronger.

Thursday and beyond...Long term ensemble guidance significantly
diverges beyond this mid-week system. There remains a variety of
solutions in regards to the timing and progression of a potential
third closed low next weekend into early next week. The unsettled
pattern continues.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 16/06Z through Monday 17/06Z...Areas -SHRA/SHRA
spreading slowly east and northeast through the period. Some -SHRASN
may develop late Sunday afternoon above 7000 feet. Locations along
the southern edge of the Mogollon Rim, as well as within the heavier
showers, will produce periods of MVFR and IFR. Expect sfc winds to
be mainly SSE-SSW10-20kts overnight and then SW15-25g30kts Sunday.
Winds decrease quickly Sunday evening.

OUTLOOK...Monday 17/06Z through Wednesday 19/06Z...Areas -SHRA/SHRA
becoming ISOLD Sunday night and Monday, then increasing Monday night
into Tuesday. MVFR/IFR possible with any shower activity, especially
Monday night and Tuesday as higher elevation -SHSN becomes possible.
Sfc winds S-SW5-15kts, gusts to 20kts by Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Monday...Cooler temperatures. Expect
rain showers progressing from west to east tonight, continuing
through Sunday with isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.
Coverage becomes isolated on Monday, mainly across the higher
terrain. Some snow may mix in at times in the higher elevations
through Sunday night. South to southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts
to 25-35 mph on Sunday, decreasing to 5-15 mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for rain/snow showers through
Wednesday. Coverage becomes isolated on Thursday, mainly across the
higher terrain. South to west winds 5-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff