753
FXUS65 KFGZ 041123
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
423 AM MST Sun Oct 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue over
the weekend and much of next week. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms develops for Wednesday, mainly over the higher terrain
of eastern Arizona. Expect easterly winds to continue, especially on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge centered over the Four Corners will keep dry
and seasonably warm weather in place through at least early next
week. Surface high pressure over the central plains will maintain
our locally gusty easterly winds, especially today. Wind gusts could
reach 30 mph at times over higher terrain.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the ridge begins to break down as a weak
trough attempts to form over western Arizona. This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize just enough to introduce a high-based
convective threat for Wednesday.

The ridge then briefly rebuilds later next week, before possibly
breaking down again next weekend. It is next weekend or early the
following week that may bring more significant weather to our area.
This pattern bears watching, but it is just outside the forecast
period for now.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 04/12Z through Monday 05/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds E10-20g25kts from 17Z-02Z, otherwise light.

OUTLOOK...Monday 05/12Z through Wednesday 07/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds generally light and trending easterly in
the daytime hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Expect dry conditions with
seasonably warm temperatures. Daytime winds east through northeast
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Sunday, then turning lighter on
Monday at 5 to 15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry conditions with continued
seasonable temperatures. A slight chance of high-based showers and
thunderstorms develops by Wednesday, especially over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. Daytime winds generally northeast
through southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff