


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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897 FXUS65 KFGZ 062048 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 149 PM MST Mon Oct 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect pleasant fall weather for the first half of the week. Unsettled conditions, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, return to the area during the second half of the week and at least through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...There are a few facts to present and then we will go into the unknown. The facts - an elongated trough will remain stretched across the SW United States for the next several days, before deepening toward the end of the week. Arizona will remain under slowly increasing and above normal hghts through the weekend. There is also a hurricane in the eastern Pacific named Priscilla. Then, the old Monsoon moisture boundary still exists just south of the Arizona/Mexico border. The unknown - all these things are set to interact by the end of the week, into the weekend, possibly through much of next week. How they will interact is the big question, but it looks likely that moisture will increase and we will see showers and thunderstorms from about Thursday onward. The question of where the strengthening offshore low sets up will determine if some of the hurricane moisture gets entrained, along with the remnant Monsoon moisture. Most models now indicate this interaction, but the location of the resulting band of heavier rain that sets up in still very undecided. Also, when the trough moves eastward, there will also be some frontal forcing and likely a mechanism for severe weather at times. Additionally, the offshore trough reloads over the weekend and into next week, possibly spinning up the same scenario one, or even two more times. So, right now, a little too early to decide how this will all pan out. One thing you can bank on though, layered moisture and PoPs will steadily increase on the middle to long term of the forecast. We will see some rainfall and confidence is increasing for a more organized, heavy rainfall event. All this with embedded severe from time to time and a heightened risk of flooding. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Monday 06/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds S-SW winds 5-10 kts during the day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected until after 18Z Thursday. Daytime winds S-SW 5-10 kts on Tuesday, increasing to 10-15 kts on Wednesday. Overnight winds light and variable or terrain driven. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry with temperatures slightly above average Tuesday. A few isolated showers or storms are possible in the White Mountains on Wednesday. Winds S-SW 5-10 mph Tuesday, S-SW 10-15 mph, gusts to 25 mph Wednesday. Minimum RH values 10-20% Tuesday, 15-30% Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Unsettled weather moves into areawide starting Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms possible each day with wetting rains likely. Winds SE-SW 10-15 mph Thursday and Friday and S-SW 15-20 mph Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff