494
FXUS65 KFGZ 021000
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 AM MST Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A dry weather pattern will continue over Arizona
through the weekend and most of the coming week. Expect
temperatures to warm to the hottest yet this season by Wednesday
and Thursday. A weak low moving northward toward the region could
being a few showers or thunderstorms and slightly cooler
temperatures by Friday and the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The weak trough that brought breezy winds to the
region on Saturday continues to move eastward across the state
today. Gradients are slightly less today so expect southwest winds
to decrease about 5 mph from Saturday, so 10-15 mph with gusts
20-30 mph through the afternoon. Skies will be mostly clear, and
afternoon highs will be about 3 degrees cooler on average.

Monday through Thursday - today`s trough moves east of the region
as high pressure gradually builds over the southwest, peaking
Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest breezes of 10-20 mph linger
Monday with lighter winds thereafter. Daytime temperatures will be
near normal Monday, warming by a few degrees each day and
reaching 10-15 degrees above early-June averages by Wed/Thu.
Thursday is currently looking like the hottest day, and we have
issued an Excessive Heat Watch below 4000 ft elevation for the
Grand Canyon, Marble/Glen Canyons, and the Yavapai County valleys
as highs are forecast to reach 105-110 degrees. Expected highs
elsewhere range from the upper 80s/low 90s along the Mogollon
Rim/Flagstaff, to mid-upper 90s in the Prescott region, 100-103
for the LCR Valley/Winslow and Sedona. These temperatures are
right around the record highs for the date.

Friday and Saturday - a closed low sitting off the Baja peninsula
is forecast to be drawn northward and into the state from later
Friday through Saturday. This should act to knock temperatures
down a few degrees as well as bring increasing clouds. Much of the
moisture increase is shown in the mid levels, so any shower or
thunderstorm activity is likely to be high-based with gusty winds
and light rain amounts. With fuels drying out due to the heat,
some lightning caused fire starts could be a concern as well.
Current forecasts have around a 20-30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms both days.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 02/06Z through Monday 03/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Light and variable winds overnight and in the early
morning hours, otherwise, S-SW10-20g25kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 03/06Z through Wednesday 05/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Light and variable winds overnight and in the early
morning hours, otherwise, S-SW10-20g25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Seasonable temperatures and
mostly dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow. Look for west-
southwest winds of 5-15 mph gusting near 25 mph each afternoon.
Minimum RH values will range between 5-15%, with overnight
recoveries between 25-55%

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures will quickly rise through
the end of the week, reaching 10+ degrees above normal by Wednesday.
Look for winds generally 15 mph or less each afternoon and minimum
RH values ranging from 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch below 4000 feet elevation from Thursday
morning through Thursday evening for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff