


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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602 FXUS65 KFGZ 162009 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 109 PM MST Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and cooler temperatures will continue through Friday. Expect a slight warming trend over the weekend with near normal temperatures into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A tranquil weather pattern will persist over Arizona over the next several days, with dry conditions expected. One final shortwave on the back side of the departing low will move across our region on Friday, keeping cool air in place. Daytime highs Friday will continue to be 5-10 degrees below normal, but the shortwave won`t be bringing any moisture with it and sunny skies are forecast. Overnight lows the next couple nights will continue to be chilly, with sub-freezing values in the high country and into the mid 30s for mid-range elevations like Winslow and Prescott. Saturday through Tuesday - heights rise across the area as high pressure builds in from the southeast. A closed low will take shape well off the southern California and Baja coast. The result for northern Arizona will be warmer temperatures, with daytime highs a few degrees above mid October averages. Winds will be light through Sunday but may pick up slightly by Tuesday as the offshore low starts to shift eastward toward the southwest US. This low is generally forecast to move across our area late Tuesday or Wednesday with the usual timing uncertainty 5-6 days out. Our latest forecasts using model blends includes around a 20% chance of showers during that period. && .AVIATION...Thursday 16/18Z through Friday 17/18Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds NW-NE 5-10 kts, locally gusty downwind of the terrain during the overnight hours. OUTLOOK...Friday 17/18Z through Sunday 19/18Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds NW-NE 5-10 kts each day, remaining locally gusty downwind of the terrain during the overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Dry conditions with temperatures warming to seasonal average by Saturday. Winds NW-NE 5-10 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 20-30% Friday, 15-25% Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures remain near seasonal averages. Winds S-SW 5-10 mph on Sunday, W-NW 10-20 mph on Monday, S-SW 10-15 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff