Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 162142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
242 PM MST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather to persist across northern Arizona through
at least Wednesday. Expect light wind and near normal temperatures
with periods of high clouds moving through the area.


.DISCUSSION...On Saturday, look for another round of fair weather
under mostly clear skies with light afternoon breezes. Daytime
temperatures will be near seasonal averages. On Sunday, a dry cold
front will sweep across the area from the north cooling daytime
temperatures around 5 degrees below Saturday`s values.

A ridge will cross the area on Monday, before a dry trough
impacts the area on Tuesday. No precipitation is forecast, but
northern Arizona will see a noticeable increase in mid and upper
level cloud cover as the trough passes overhead. Another fast
moving ridge is forecast on Wednesday. Daytime temperatures will
remain near normal.

Uncertainly grows Thursday as model forecasts significantly
diverge. The ECMWF and Canadian models predict the passage of an
upper-level trough and surface cold front. Some light
precipitation accompanies the front, with snow possible down to
6500 feet. The GFS shows a much weaker system with much warmer
temperatures and no precipitation.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect primarily VFR conditions
over the next 24 hours with periods of high clouds. Localized smoke
may still be an issue at KGCN overnight. Wind speeds remaining 10
kts or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Generally light winds, dry conditions, and
daytime temperatures near normal will continue through Sunday.
Cooling just a bit from the Mogollon Rim northward on Sunday as a
dry cold front brushes Arizona.

Monday through Wednesday...Look for near normal temperatures and dry
conditions to persist. Winds will shift to a northeasterly direction
on Monday behind the cold front then return to a more southwesterly
direction by Tuesday. Winds are expected to remain generally on the
light side.






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