Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 070352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
852 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Daytime temperatures will be well above normal through
Monday. Expect breezy winds each afternoon with the stronger,
southwest winds Monday through Wednesday. Chances of
precipitation return the latter half of the week.


.DISCUSSION...Aside from some high clouds over the northwest part
of Arizona, it`s another quiet night across the area. Daytime
temperatures will top out around 10-15 degrees above normal on
Sunday. Expect another round of breezy southwest winds in the
afternoon. Low pressure along the West Coast will bring stronger
southwest winds Monday through Wednesday, with likely advisory
level speeds Tuesday.

No major updates are needed with this forecast package.


.PREV DISCUSSION /250 PM MST/...The ridge is moving off to the
east and the shortwave trough is most of the way through the
north end of the Great Basin. Weak ridging is moving in from the
west clearing our skies under the subsidence. Winds are shifting
more southerly and will become southwest by Monday ahead of the
deep trough and cold-core low descending out of the Gulf of
Alaska. This low will track south just off the Pacific coast
through Wednesday. This will give us gusty southwest winds each
afternoon with the strongest winds, 20-30 mph gusting 30-45 mph
Tuesday. These winds will likely impact high profile vehicles
traveling through the region.

The models are still struggling to handle the cutoff low, but the
GFS is starting to speed up the low`s motion to better agree with
the jet support, having it turn the corner off the Southern
California coast by Thursday morning and tracking northeast over
Colorado by Friday morning. The GFS ensemble is settling in on
most of the activity Thursday with lingering showers Friday, and
is the wetter solution with a quarter to half inch of
precipitation across much of the region. The European continues
to move the low through slowly Thursday through Sunday. The
European ensemble still spreads the solution out over the four
days, but is leaning towards most of the activity Friday into
Saturday with about half the moisture of the GFS solution. Stay
tuned as we update this forecast over the next few days.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Light surface winds overnight will become south to
southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to 25 kts after 18Z. Winds diminishing
Sunday evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm, dry and breezy weather is expected through
Monday. Winds generally from the south through southwest and
increasing a bit each day.

Tuesday through Thursday...Gusty southwest winds and the potential
for Critical Fire Weather conditions arrive on Tuesday, ahead of a
cold low pressure system due Wednesday and Thursday. This storm will
bring continued gusty winds and colder temperatures for Wednesday
and Thursday, along with a chance for rain and snow.






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