Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 282102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
202 PM MST Sun May 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably warm and dry weather is expected to
continue into the first-half of the week. Slightly cooler
temperatures return for the later half of next week, along with
the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
high terrain.


.DISCUSSION...The remainder of today through Tuesday...A
shortwave trough, currently located off the central California
coast, will approach Arizona. Through this period there will be
very little change in daytime high temperatures and overnight lows
as a dry southwest flow aloft continues. The combination of
the southwest flow aloft along with our diurnal tendency for
upslope flow toward the Great Basin will produce afternoon
southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with a few afternoon gusts
approaching 35 mph. With dry conditions mainly clear skies are

From Wednesday onward...The California trough will swing across
Arizona for a bit cooler daytime temperatures. Models show some
moisture creeping across Arizona from over the Gulf of California
with this pattern. Daytime heating will then combine with this
enhanced moisture and relatively cold temperatures aloft
associated with the trough to produce isolated showers and
thunderstorms, primarily north of the Mogollon Rim. An additional
shortwave trough is set for the coming weekend. As a result, below
average high temperatures will continue. Moisture will continue to
feed northward into Arizona producing a threat of isolated
showers and thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim northward.
Pressure gradients look to weaken with daytime winds mainly in the
10 to 20 mph range.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF Package...Expect VFR conditions for the
24 hour TAF forecast period. Southwesterly surface winds increasing
10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts at most through 02Z and then
variable to 6kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Dry weather with seasonably warm
daytime temperatures will continue. South to southwest winds gusting
15 to 20 MPH each afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...Seasonably warm and breezy weather
continues with southwest wind gusts 20 to 30 mph each afternoon.






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