851
FXUS65 KFGZ 211140
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
440 AM MST Wed May 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and much warmer weather is on the way for the rest
of the week. Winds will be light through Wednesday, then become
gusty Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will peak over the state today and
Thursday, with dry conditions and the warmest afternoons of the
season so far. Highs will be around 5-10 degrees above late May
averages under sunny skies. Southwest breezes will pick up a bit
starting Thursday afternoon as weak troughing along the west coast
slowly begins to approach. Friday into Saturday, the weak trough
moves into the state, with any associated moisture remaining north
of us. This will act to kick up the southwest winds even more,
reaching 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph, with the higher speeds on
Friday. The wind combining with low humidity will bring elevated
fire weather concerns Friday, but conditions are too marginal
(20-40% chance of reaching criteria) for any products at this
time - we`ll continue to monitor. Daytime highs Fri/Sat will drop
just a few degrees but still remain near normal. Sunday through
Tuesday - ridge builds over the state again with another low
slowly approaching from the west toward the end of the period.
Expect daytime highs to rise several degrees above normal each
day, with increasing southwest breezes by Tuesday. In addition,
some limited moisture may get pulled westward along the AZ/NM line
with some cloud buildups and a 10-20% chance of an afternoon
shower or storm.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 21/12Z through Thursday 22/12Z...VFR
conditions with S/SW winds 5-10 kts before 03Z, then becoming VRB.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 22/12Z through Saturday 24/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds SW 10-20 kts on Thursday, increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts
up to 30 kts on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Warming temperatures and dry
conditions. Winds southwest 5-15 mph today, increasing to 10-20 mph
on Thursday. Minimum RH values 5-15% each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Warm and very dry. Winds southwest 15-25 mph
on Friday, subsiding to 10-20 mph for Saturday, becoming northwest 5-
15 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH values 5-15% each afternoon. Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible on Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff