Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 052207

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
307 PM MST Thu Dec 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and seasonable conditions return for Friday and
Saturday. A weather system will bring rain and mountain snow
showers back to the region Sunday and Monday. Mostly sunny skies
return across the region by Tuesday.


.DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge centered over southern California
and Nevada is helping to bring drier air into the County Warning
Area this afternoon. Clearing mid and low level cloud cover today
has allowed for temperatures to increase a few degrees compared
to Thursday. There is still considerable sky cover over the Four
Corners region and across the far northern reaches of Arizona.

High based cloud cover is forecast to expand in coverage this
evening and through the overnight hours. Temperatures will not
drop off tonight as sometimes happens behind a front because of
the overnight sky cover and elevated dew points from remaining
boundary layer moisture. As a result of these conditions, there
could be some patchy fog in the early morning hours Friday.
Remember to leave space between cars if you happen to travel
through an area with fog tomorrow morning. Fog was kept out of the
weather grids this afternoon due to the expected sporadic nature
of any fog that does develop tonight.

The shortwave ridge will persist and result in dry and fair
conditions for most of central and northern Arizona through
Saturday afternoon. There is a slight chance of showers in far
western Yavapai and Coconino counties Saturday afternoon as an
advancing trough could bring sub-tropical moisture northward.

The aforementioned trough is still expected to dig southwestward
overnight Saturday and through Sunday. Chances of precipitation
were increased across northern Coconino County for Sunday morning.
Timing for the greatest coverage and intensity of rain and
mountain snow showers looks to be early Sunday morning and through
the evening hours. Showers are expected to be scattered to
widespread in coverage during this time. Snow levels will start
out around 7,500 - 8,000 feet MSL ahead of the front and decrease
Sunday night behind it. The generally warm nature of this system
will likely limit any snowfall in population centers across the
High Country.

Model solutions begin to diverge by early Monday morning with the
ECMWF keeping showers across southern portions of the County
Warning Area through Tuesday afternoon, while the GFS is bringing
in a ridge and drier weather over the Southwest/Great Basin by
Monday evening. With these diverging solutions, a slight chance
was kept in the forecast for southern Navajo and Apache counties
through 5 AM MST Tuesday. These continued diverging solutions will
be monitored with future forecast updates.

Eitherway, it does look to be a return to drier and fair
conditions again by Wednesday.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will dominate the
period with some, lingering stratus along the Mogollon Rim causing
local MVFR conditions. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Fair weather can be expected into Saturday. There
is a slight chance of showers beginning Saturday afternoon for
western zones. Ventilation will be poor Friday and become marginal
to fair by Saturday afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday...More widespread chances for wetting
rains and mountain snow return Sunday with breezy westerly winds.
Chances for showers decrease Monday. Mostly sunny by Tuesday.






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