Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190531
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1031 PM MST Mon Mar 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow showers will gradually diminish
overnight. Another round of rain and snow showers is expected
Tuesday, with warmer and dry weather expected from Wednesday
onward. Unsettled weather looks to potentially make a return late
this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Low pressure remains to our southwest, with a
circulation center rotating northward this evening through Gila
County. North of this circulation, bands of rain and snow have
continued to develop since mid afternoon. A couple of these bands
have produced periods of moderate to heavy snow at times above
about 6500 feet. One of these impacted the Flagstaff region from
3-5 PM and dropped 1-3" of snow and caused some traffic issues.
Yet another band reached the I-17/I-40 corridor in the Flagstaff
region again after 8 PM and is slowly moving out now. After
midnight through 5 AM - hi res guidance shows the best chance of
showers over the southern half of Navajo and Apache counties, with
activity farther west dissipating. With deep moisture lingering,
patchy fog is likely to develop overnight into the early morning
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /454 PM MST/...Today...The everlasting cut-off
low remains centered over the lower Colorado River today, slowly
meandering around the southwest. With plenty of moisture and
forcing still in place, another round of rain and snow showers are
expected to spread across northern Arizona today. Latest hi-res
guidance hints at areas mainly along and near the Mogollon Rim as
the greatest chances, with more isolated to scattered coverage
elsewhere. Some steeper lapse-rates (around 8 deg C/km) may allow
for some more vigorous showers to develop, with brief periods of
heavy rain/snow and lightning possible. With the loss of daytime
heating, coverage decreases through the evening with only isolated
activity continuing into the overnight hours.

While overall precipitation amounts will be minimal, along the Rim
0.50-1.00 inches of liquid preciptation is forecast with some higher
amounts possible in the heaviest storms. Accumulating snowfall
should be limited to areas above 8000 feet, as surface temperatures
will be too warm for any notable accumulations at any lower
elevations. Nevertheless, any stronger snow shower may allow for
some quick and short-lived accumulations down to around 6500-7000
feet today.

Tuesday...With the cut-off low still wobbling around Arizona,
another round of rain and snow showers are expected on Tuesday.
However, since the low will drift a bit further eastward, moisture
looks to be a bit less by Tuesday. Thus, coverage and intensity is
expected to be less than today. Nevertheless, some isolated stronger
showers will be possible, with brief heavy rain/snow and gusty
winds. Steeper lapse-rates (around 8-10 deg C/km) with more daytime
heating potential may result better chances for thunder on Tuesday.

With surfaces temperatures a few degrees warm on Tuesday, snow
levels look to be a bit higher, around 7500-8000 feet. Thus, much of
the activity will be rain. However, with a grater surface dewpoint
depression, any heavier shower may cool the surface temperature
closer to freezing and allow for some brief snow accumulations near
7000 feet.

Wednesday through Sunday...Heights begin to rise by midweek as the
cut-off low finally begins to move eastward and high pressure builds
into Arizona. Outside of some lingering showers over the eastern
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains on Wednesday, drier and warmer
conditions are expected to prevail. Temperatures look to peak on
Friday as heights maximize, with afternoon high temperatures
expected to be near-normal to around 5 degrees F above normal for
this time of year.

By the weekend, the ridge becomes degraded as a longwave trough
begins to dip southward into the southwestern US. Breezy southwest
winds and chances for showers look to make a return by Sunday as a
result.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 19/06Z through Wednesday 20/06Z...Periods of
MVFR/IFR through 06Z in -SHRA/-SHSN and patchy BR/FG. Low CIGs
mainly along the Mogollon Rim through 15Z. SCT SHRA/SHSN with ISO
TSRA after 18Z. E-SE winds, mainly less than 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 20/06Z through Friday 22/06Z...MVFR/IFR
conditions clearing after 12Z/Wed. W winds 5-15 kts Weds,
becoming W-NW Thu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Scattered rain and high-
elevation snow showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected for
Tuesday afternoon. Cool temperatures with west winds 5 to 15 mph.
Drier and warmer conditions with west-northwest winds 10 to 20 mph
are expected Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Warmer and drier conditions expected
through Saturday. West-southwest winds 15 to 20 mph through Friday,
increasing out of the southwest 20 to 35 mph Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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