Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 212156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
256 PM MST Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to warm through Wednesday.
Another dry cold front will cool temperatures again Thursday.
Northwesterly to northeasterly surface winds will continue through
the end of the work week.


.DISCUSSION...High based clouds are streaming across northern
Arizona this afternoon along dry northwesterly flow aloft.
Continued north to northwesterly flow aloft will keep northern
Arizona in a dry weather pattern through at least this weekend.

Tuesday morning minimum temperatures will again be chilly
for much of the region, but slightly warmer than today. The area
of high pressure located off of the California coast will allow
for increasing daytime temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Generally light surface winds will be north to northeasterly with
a few afternoon breezes.

There will be an increase in the northeasterly wind speeds
beginning early Thursday morning as another dry cold front sweeps
across the region. This front will create conditions favorable for
more widespread northeast winds throughout the daytime on
Thursday. There will be continued northeast breezes for locations
downslope of larger high terrain features into the early overnight
hours Thursday.

Current model guidance continues to show some wavering in the
high temperatures on Thursday. The timing of this dry cold front
on Thursday will ultimately factor into those high temperatures,
so some uncertainty is present in the forecast maximum
temperatures. Although, there is high confidence that temperatures
will be much cooler than the high temperatures on Wednesday.

Considerable uncertainty persists on the potential for an
Intermountain West trough to dig towards the Southwest early next
week. Run to run and model to model variability remains high at
this time for any chances of precipitation and winds out ahead of
the trough.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions and mostly
clear skies through the TAF period, with light northerly surface
winds. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Fair, warm and dry conditions are expected Tuesday
and Wednesday, with generally light northwest through northeast

Thursday through Saturday...A dry cold front will bring stronger
north winds and cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday. Very dry
surface conditions will continue.






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