Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 282201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...After fair conditions today, another quick moving
system will bring a chance of snow and rain showers from Wednesday
afternoon through early Thursday morning. Gusty northeast winds will
develop Wednesday evening and continue into Friday. A gradual
warming trend begins Friday, lasting into the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...After a relatively calm and warm day today, another
fast-moving and cold low will drop into the northern Great Basin
this evening and quickly into Arizona on Wednesday.

This low will bring another round of convective rain and snow
showers, along with gusty north and northeast winds. The airmass is
a little dry at first and convective in nature, so, the ability to
model QPF intensity and location is compromised. We used a blend for
now, focusing on higher elevations from Flagstaff to the east and

Snow levels will fall to around 5500 feet, even as low as 5000 feet
in the heavier showers. The possibility of difficult travel at the
end of the day Wednesday definitely exists, mainly from Flagstaff
southeastward along Lake Mary Road and toward the higher reaches of
SR260 into Wednesday evening.

The low moves away from the area quickly Wednesday night, but the
north and northeast gradients will persist into Thursday and will be
reinforced again on Friday,

A dry and warmer weekend is in store, possibly followed by another
storm early next week. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Light winds and VFR conditions
will continue through the overnight hours. After 12Z, chances for
showers increase as a low pressure system begins to impact the area.
Periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible after
18Z, primarily over higher terrain along and north of the Mogollon
Rim. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...On Wednesday, a fast moving weather system will
move across Arizona, bringing gusty northerly winds and chances for
rain and mountain snow. On Thursday, the system exits leaving behind
a cold and dry airmass, with a continuation of northerly winds.

.Friday through Sunday...Expect dry conditions and warming
temperatures. Northerly to northeasterly breezes will continue
through Saturday.






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