


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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851 FXUS65 KFGZ 211140 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 440 AM MST Wed May 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and much warmer weather is on the way for the rest of the week. Winds will be light through Wednesday, then become gusty Thursday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure will peak over the state today and Thursday, with dry conditions and the warmest afternoons of the season so far. Highs will be around 5-10 degrees above late May averages under sunny skies. Southwest breezes will pick up a bit starting Thursday afternoon as weak troughing along the west coast slowly begins to approach. Friday into Saturday, the weak trough moves into the state, with any associated moisture remaining north of us. This will act to kick up the southwest winds even more, reaching 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph, with the higher speeds on Friday. The wind combining with low humidity will bring elevated fire weather concerns Friday, but conditions are too marginal (20-40% chance of reaching criteria) for any products at this time - we`ll continue to monitor. Daytime highs Fri/Sat will drop just a few degrees but still remain near normal. Sunday through Tuesday - ridge builds over the state again with another low slowly approaching from the west toward the end of the period. Expect daytime highs to rise several degrees above normal each day, with increasing southwest breezes by Tuesday. In addition, some limited moisture may get pulled westward along the AZ/NM line with some cloud buildups and a 10-20% chance of an afternoon shower or storm. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 21/12Z through Thursday 22/12Z...VFR conditions with S/SW winds 5-10 kts before 03Z, then becoming VRB. OUTLOOK...Thursday 22/12Z through Saturday 24/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds SW 10-20 kts on Thursday, increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Warming temperatures and dry conditions. Winds southwest 5-15 mph today, increasing to 10-20 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values 5-15% each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Warm and very dry. Winds southwest 15-25 mph on Friday, subsiding to 10-20 mph for Saturday, becoming northwest 5- 15 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH values 5-15% each afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Friday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff