Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 050333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
833 PM MST Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Most of northern Arizona can expect dry weather
through at least next Tuesday. High temperatures will gradually
cool through Thursday, and then start a warming trend. Breezy
southwest winds are forecast during the afternoons through at
least Friday. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances are
limited to the southern portions of Navajo and Apache Counties
through at least Tuesday.


.UPDATE...Overall a warm and breezy day was observed across
northern Arizona. Temperatures have dropped below warning
thresholds and excessive heat warnings have expired. Temperatures
should remain below thresholds through the remainder of the week.
Have made minor updates to temperature trends tonight and have
accounted for scattered high clouds moving north across the area.


.PREV DISCUSSION /209 PM MST/...Skies are cloud free but have a
milky sheen (due to mixed smoke from wildfires) this afternoon
across much of northern Arizona. Southwest wind gusts in the 15
to 25 mph range are occurring across western parts of the state.

The 7 day weather forecast focus for northern Arizona remains on
dry conditions for most of us with above normal temperatures and
breezy southwest winds. Afternoon and evening shower and
thunderstorm chances remain limited to areas south of a line from
Window Rock through Forest Lakes in the White Mountains area
through Monday, and probabilities for most of this area are 10-20
percent, with the highest areas of the White Mountains near 30

From tonight through Saturday - Forecast progs remain in good
agreement showing the high pressure center aloft now over western
New Mexico to move slowly eastward while weak troughing sets up
along the West coast. This means breezy southwest winds during the
afternoons for northern Arizona. Wednesday and Thursday look to
have the fastest gusts, up to 30 mph probable across Coconino and
Yavapai Counties.

Sunday through Tuesday - Little change seen in the large scale
pattern for the desert southwest with ridging to our east and a
weak trough along the west coast. Model ensemble forecasts show
scant precip in the White Mountains and none elsewhere.

High temperatures are forecast to remain above normal for the
next 7 days at least, though they will cool a degree or two
through Thursday.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions expected for the 24
hour TAF forecast period. Light sfc winds becmg sw10-20g25-30kts aft
17Z Wednesday. Isold-sct shra/-tsra aft 19Z Wednesday, mostly east
of a KSOW-KRQE line. Winds/convection ending aft 01Z-03Z Thursday.
Patchy FU from area wildfires may briefly decrease VIS through the
period. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and mainly dry weather continues through
Thursday. Breezy southwesterly winds each day will help to create
near-critical fire weather conditions in western zones. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be limited to the White Mountains
with gusty outflow winds possible.

Friday through Sunday...Near-normal temperatures and continued dry
conditions are expected. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in far
eastern Arizona.






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