Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231642

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 AM MST Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow showers will slowly decrease in coverage
and intensity through today, with clearing skies this afternoon and
tonight. Dry and warmer conditions arrive Friday and Saturday, with
another storm bringing strong winds Sunday and rain and snow showers
for Memorial Day.


.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning indicates a deep upper
low between Williams and the Grand Canyon, with an ejecting s/wv to
the east. The frontal band that brought rain and snow to central and
western portions of the CWA has fractured apart and will move out of
the CWA soon. Lingering instability bands near the upper low, as
well as the "comma head" itself, will impact areas from Flagstaff
north and west through the early afternoon.

Some of the snow bands will produce an additional inch or two this
morning and the Snow Advisory looks good until 11 AM MST. Rapid hght
rises will develop tonight through Saturday, despite remaining in a
long wave trough position. This will bring drier, warmer and breezy
conditions after today, heading into the weekend.

By Sunday, another deep low will develop in the mean trough
position, bringing strong winds to Arizona. This low moves inland
Monday, ejecting through Arizona by Monday night. Expect another
round of rain and snow showers and continued strong winds/cold for
Memorial Day. Conditions improve later next week, although the
southwest will remain in a mean trough, leaving the door open for
additional showers.

Zones/grids look good this morning. We will monitor convective
shower development and may need to prolong the chances of showers in
the Flagstaff area. For now, no updates.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered to widespread rain and
mountain snow showers may produce local MVFR/IFR conditions across
much of northern Arizona through 20Z, before gradually clearing
southwest to northeast through the afternoon. Winds through the
period will be S to SW 10-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts along and
northeast of higher terrain this afternoon becoming lighter after
03z Fri. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect rain and snow showers to slowly decrease in
coverage and intensity through the day. Clearing skies can then be
expected this afternoon and tonight, with dry and warmer weather on
Friday. Expect southwest winds 15 to 25 mph today, lighter on

Saturday through Monday...Expect dry and breezy conditions on
Saturday, with cold and windy conditions returning for Sunday and
Monday. Another cold upper low will also bring a chance of rain and
snow back to the area by Monday.



Winter Weather Advisory above 6500 feet until 11 AM MST this morning
for AZZ004-006-015-016.




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