Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 212155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 PM MST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A major winter storm will bring widespread moderate to
heavy snowfall and dangerous travel conditions to much of the region
through late Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Large and cold upper low continues to settle
southward into southern California this afternoon. Impressive
snowfall totals ahead of the low have spread across much of central
and northern Arizona. We have several areas from Flagstaff south and
southeast that have already passed 30 inches of new snow, with much
more to come. Regional radar and IR loops indicate more organized
bands moving through southern California and across the Lower
Colorado River. Additionally, the airmass becomes more unstable as
the night goes on, with a wrap around (comma head) precipitation
signature moving into western Yavapai/Coconino Friday afternoon and
lasting into the evening.

Translate eastward what has occurred in Coconino and Yavapai
counties up to this point (with the lead precipitation band), and
southern Navajo and Apache counties are next.

Long story short, the storm has panned out about as promised, with
some over-performance in places. We have 24-30 hours to go, with
even lower snow levels and really dangerous conditions/high snow
totals. Do not travel if you do not have to.

By Saturday, this is all over, ridging next week.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Widespread snow will continue
through the period. Expect continued poor aviation conditions with
MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities across all of northern
Arizona. Low ceilings and visibilities are forecast to remain in
place for most of the period. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A strong winter storm system will continue to bring
widespread, heavy snow into Friday. Expect gusty southwest winds of
15 to 25 mph, with gusts 35 to 45 mph, through tonight. Heavy snow
will gradually taper off to showers Friday afternoon. Quieter, but
cold weather is expected on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry conditions are expected. Temperatures
will remain cold, but gradually warm through the period.



Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for AZZ005-009>016-018-

Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ017.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for AZZ004-006>008-037.




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