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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261128
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
428 AM MST Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds and low humidity will combine to produce
critical fire weather conditions across the majority of northern
Arizona today. Look for afternoon humidity in the teens to single
digits, with wind gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range. Expect dry
conditions and lighter winds from Sunday through at least
Tuesday. Cooler temperatures this weekend will warm above normal
by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The mid and upper level low was centered over
southern California this morning and is forecast to move toward
NW Arizona late this afternoon. Our area will be on the windy and
dry southern side of this low with critical fire weather
conditions developing. The strongest winds are forecast from
around the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains north and east where a
Wind Advisory is in effect from Noon to 7 PM MST. Wind gusts in
these areas will reach the 40 to 50 mph range. A Red Flag Warning
is also in effect from Noon to 7 PM for all of northern Arizona
except Gila County and the lower elevations of Yavapai County.
Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal this afternoon.
Considerable mid and high clouds will affect areas southeast of a
Payson to Window Rock line through this afternoon with sunny skies
elsewhere. By Sunday and Monday, the low slowly fills over Utah,
resulting in lighter winds over northern Arizona. Sunday`s highs
will be around normal, then warming a few degrees for Monday and
Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday - models are in general agreement that
troughing will develop near the west coast, but differ on the
depth of the trough, timing, and impacts on northern Arizona.
Increasing southwest winds are likely, possibly strong enough for
another round of critical fire weather Thursday or Friday. Stay
tuned for more details over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will continue with
broken high clouds across eastern AZ this afternoon. S-SW surface
winds becoming 20-30 kts gusting 30-40 kts through about sunset this
evening before decreasing. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Strong and gusty south to southwest winds will
develop this afternoon, resulting in Red Flag conditions across much
of northern Arizona. The strongest winds will be from Flagstaff to
Show Low northward. Dry weather with near average temperatures will
continue on Sunday, though winds will be much lighter.

Monday through Wednesday...Warming temperatures and dry conditions
are anticipated. Expect generally light southwest diurnal breezes on
Monday and Tuesday, with increasing southwest winds on Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from noon
today to 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ104>117-138>140.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MST this evening for
AZZ009>017-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff