Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 110339
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
839 PM MST Mon May 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer conditions and lighter winds arrive on
Tuesday, lasting through the remainder of the work week.
Southwest winds will increase again over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Breezy west to southwest winds continue across
eastern Arizona this evening, but will diminish over the next few
hours. Much less wind is on tap for Tuesday as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Heights will rise over the next couple days
bringing a warming trend.

The current forecast handles this well and no major updates are
needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /143 PM MST/...Breezy west to southwest winds
today are in response to a trough driving south through Utah this
afternoon. Very low humidity across eastern Arizona is leading to
near critical fire weather for a few hours this afternoon. This
will subside as wind speeds begin to decrease after sunset. As the
trough moves through the Four Corners region tonight, there will
be a slight chance for a few showers in that region. Otherwise,
conditions remain dry and areas north of the Mogollon Rim will
see a gradual shift to northerly winds overnight.

From Tuesday through Friday, high pressure will build over the
region leading to warmer weather with lighter wind speeds. Expect
daytime temperatures to reach about 10 degrees above average on
the warmest days Thursday and Friday. Most model guidance,
including ensemble mean solutions, show a trough developing over
the southwest U.S. over the weekend. There is a bit more consensus
today on the timing of the trough occurring over the weekend
leading to a return of windy conditions. There may also be a few
showers, but overall it looks like a drier system. Unsettled
conditions may continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail
for the next 24 hours. Light winds overnight becoming west to
northwest 10-15 kts Tuesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warming trend with dry conditions and lighter
winds is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon west to northwest
breezes will be possible each afternoon with gusts to 15-20 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry and warm conditions continue through
Thursday. Isolated shower chances are possible for the White
Mountains on Friday. Increasing southwest winds return for the
weekend.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TPS/MCT
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...ET


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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