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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191706
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1006 AM MST Thu May 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm and breezy conditions will lead to dangerous
fire weather on Thursday and Friday. Winds will relax with cooler
conditions this weekend, curbing the fire weather potential. Next
week we`ll experience another taste of summer as high pressure
drives temperatures to well above normal levels.

&&

.UPDATE...A warm and breezy afternoon is in store as the next
trough approaches our area. Wind gusts around 30 knots and low
humidity values will create dangerous fire weather, primarily
north of the Mogollon Rim. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11
AM to 9 PM MST. Windy condition continue tomorrow, though
humidities should recover slightly as temperatures cool down.
Elevated to critical fire conditions possible tomorrow. The trough
and lower heights stick around for a couple days, allowing the
more seasonal temperature to persist into next week. By mid-
week, models indicate the start of a warming trend. Updated
forecast package will be out this afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /317 AM MST/...Winds will be on the increase
today as a large trough begins to sag southward toward the region.
Winds at the 700 mb (10K ft msl) reach 30-35 kts by this afternoon
roughly north of the Mogollon Rim. Warm and dry conditions persist
today and will combine with the wind to create dangerous fire
weather. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM MST
for areas north of the Mogollon Rim including Navajo and Hopi
Nations and northern Coconino County. As this trough moves farther
south tonight into Friday, winds aloft increase even more, up to
35-45 kts. This will translate into surface winds of 20-30 mph and
gusts 40-55 mph for much of northern Arizona. Temperatures will
cool 5-10 degrees compared to today, along with an increase in sfc
dewpoints along/south of the Mogollon Rim. Critical fire weather
is looking likely for east central and northeast Arizona, but is a
bit more questionable from the Mogollon Rim westward as minimum
humidity may not quite get low enough to meet the criteria. For
this reason, we have kept the Fire Weather Watch in effect for
Friday and will re-evaluate later today.

The trough over the western US persists through the weekend,
though gradients relax a bit over Arizona as it retreats slightly
northward. This means that while it will remain breezy, winds
should not be as strong and critical fire weather is not
anticipated. Daytime temperatures remain close to seasonal
averages. Next week - while there is still some model spread, most
solutions indicate ridging to our west gradually building into the
state. Temperatures are forecast to warm back above normal with
winds remaining relatively light.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the end of the 18Z TAF period. Southwesterly winds
will increase throughout the afternoon with 25-35 knot gusts
possible through the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire conditions expected today for areas
north of the Mogollon Rim as gusty winds combine with low relative
humidities. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for these areas from
11 AM to 9 PM MST today. Windy conditions continue tomorrow, with
a slight increase in humidities as temperatures cool. Elevated to
critical fire conditions expected tomorrow. Winds weaken over the
weekend, but dry and breezy conditions persist.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
FOR AZZ104>118-138>140.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>107-
109>114-139-140.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...Woods/JJ
AVIATION...Stessman
FIRE WEATHER...Woods


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff