Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
356 AM MST Thu Sep 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Clouds along the New Mexico border will clear later
this morning with otherwise a dry and sunny day in store. Dry
weather and above normal daytime temperatures are forecast through
the upcoming weekend and into next week.


.DISCUSSION...The trough that brought rain to most of Arizona
yesterday has pushed east with its axis along the New Mexico
border early this morning. Lingering clouds and perhaps a few
light showers along the border will clear later this morning. A
drying northerly flow will develop across the state today behind
the trough. A few isolated instability showers may develop along
the southern fringes of our forecast area, but should diminish
quickly as the drier air filters in. Temperatures in most areas
will be much warmer today compared to yesterday.

A more zonal westerly flow aloft develops over the weekend keeping
dry weather in the forecast with above average temperatures. A
shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Basin
sometime early next week resulting in enhanced afternoon winds,
but the exact timing is not yet certain. The remainder of next
week will feature strengthening high pressure over the West Coast
and Southwest U.S. leading to continued dry and quite warm


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect mainly VFR conditions for
the 24 hour period. The exception being a few pockets of IFR in cigs
and fog from Flagstaff south and east through 15Z-16Z this morning.
Sfc winds remaining light. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A relatively moist boundary layer will persist
today, especially over the eastern and southern portions of the
district. Additional rainfall is not expected and winds will be
light from the west or northwest. Drier air will move over all of
the district by tonight and Friday, with seasonably warm
temperatures and light winds.

Saturday through Monday...Expect warm and dry conditions through the
period, with generally light winds.






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