


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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111 FXUS65 KFGZ 141740 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1040 AM MST Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue through Tuesday, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds but mostly light rainfall. A gradual uptick in moisture is forecast during the mid to late week period, with a potential for much wetter conditions. && .DISCUSSION...Today and Tuesday...High pressure continue to gradually shift eastward through the start of this week. As this occurs, moisture looks to gradually increase each day across northern Arizona. Hi-res guidance this morning points towards the higher terrain again being the main focus this afternoon, eventually moving off the terrain later this afternoon as outflow boundaries begin to drive the show. Tuesday looks to be a similar story, with just a slight uptick in coverage and intensity. For each day, the main threats will mainly be gusty outflow winds, though a couple brief downpours in any stronger storm will be possible. Wednesday onward...A more traditional monsoonal pattern looks to take hold by the middle of next week, as weak trough setting up over the Gulf of California and high pressure remains situated to the east. This allows for sub-tropical moisture to be advected northward across much of Arizona, resulting in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms returning. Added dynamics from the trough will also aid in thunderstorm development, likely leading to an increased risk of flash flooding later this week. Day-to-day coverage will be largely controlled by the exact positioning of the high, as well as any remnant debris clouds from the previous day. Convection does look to peak late Wednesday and Thursday as upper-level dynamics from the trough look to be overhead. && .AVIATION...Monday 14/18Z through Tuesday 15/18Z...Mostly VFR conditions. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA from 20Z to 03Z, mainly over the high terrain. Localized VIS impacts possible in heavier showers, as well as in FU from wildfires. Winds are VRB 5-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts in the afternoon, then light and VRB overnight. Gusty/erratic outflow winds in and around TS. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 15/18Z through Thursday 17/18Z...Mostly VFR conditions. Chances for SHRA/TSRA each day, most numerous over the high terrain. Brief MVFR conditions along with gusty, erratic outflow winds in and around TSRA. Localized VIS impacts possible in FU downwind from wildfires. Away from storms, expect daytime winds SW-W 10-15 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially south of the I-40 corridor. Daytime winds variable at 5-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph Monday, becoming west/southwest for Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms. Wednesday through Friday...Cooling temperatures and widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Wetting rains are likely with stronger storms. Winds west through southwest at 5-15 mph, with gust to 20 mph, each day. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff