Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
840 PM MST Sat Mar 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry weather through the weekend, with breezy
daytime winds and variable cloud cover. Another round of
unsettled weather is expected starting Monday, with well below
normal temperatures and a chance of light showers through
Tuesday. Mild weather returns for the second half of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Wind speeds and sky cover have decreased, although
breezy conditions will likely continue at locations immediately
northeast of high terrain. Low temperatures are expected to drop
into the mid-20s and 30s across most of Arizona`s High Country
tonight. The current forecast captures this well, and no updates
are anticipated this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /231 PM MST/...A Pacific trough situated to our
northwest will keep a moderate southwesterly flow over Arizona
through the weekend. The trough will gradually move inland into
the Intermountain West, which will keep winds breezy across
Arizona. Wind gusts from 30 to near 40 mph will be common both
this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. High clouds will
decrease from west to east this evening, with another round of
high clouds expected on Sunday. Mild temperatures, near to
slightly above average, will continue.

A shortwave feature rotates through the trough Sunday night, which
will deepen the parent trough and push it further south through
Arizona early next week. With the trough passage, we can expect
colder temperatures, increased clouds, and a chance for showers.
The best chance for showers will be Monday afternoon through
Tuesday afternoon. Snow is possible generally above 5,500 feet,
but any accumulation will remain less than an inch and mainly
confined to a short period Monday evening when conditions are cold

High pressure rebuilds off the California coast from Wednesday
through next week keeping a mild weather pattern over the region.
Temperatures will warm to near average by Thursday and above
average Friday.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions under just a
few high clouds for the next 24 hours. Overnight, surface winds 10-
20 kts, with higher gusts in the vicinity of higher terrain. Surface
winds resume at 15-25 kts gusting to 30 kts by Noon Sunday,
diminishing Sunday evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and decreasing high cloud
cover through Sunday. Gusty southwest winds will weaken but likely
not fully decouple overnight. Gusty southwest winds resume again on
Sunday. A low pressure system arrives on Monday, bringing colder
temperatures, less wind and a chance for rain and snow showers.

.Tuesday through Thursday...Cool and showery conditions will
persist into Tuesday. High pressure moves into the district for
Wednesday and Thursday, with clearing skies, light north winds and
warmer temperatures.






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