Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 311043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 AM MST Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm weather is in store for the next several
days. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees above normal through
Wednesday, dropping to near normal Thursday through the weekend.
Wednesday and Thursday will see gusty southwest winds each


.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows upper level moisture
advecting up from the southwest over Arizona and predominately
zonal flow across the Great Basin. Models forecast a longwave
trough setting up over the Northwestern US with the jet keeping
the winter weather mostly limited to northern Nevada, Utah and
Colorado and farther north. Models predict high cloud cover moving
in across the area through the morning with mid-level clouds
advecting in overnight tonight. A weak shortwave trough crosses
the area Wednesday afternoon bringing with it cold-air advection
aloft and a slight chance for showers over the White Mountains.
Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail across northern Arizona
through the weekend. The increased pressure gradient to the north
will give us gusty southwest winds Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon with a chance for advisory level gusts of 40 mph on
more possible Thursday in Navajo and Apache Counties. Look for
breezy warm weather through the weekend.

Going into next week, models are indicating a possible return of
cool wet weather. The ensemble models show good agreement on this
with the European ensemble trending much wetter for Arizona. The
operational models on the other hand show little agreement with
the GFS keeping most of the weather well to the north while the
European and Canadian models dig the trough deep over the Western
US. It`s really too early to tell this far out what will happen,
so stay tuned as we get to the weekend and we should have a better
handle on what to expect next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions/occasional
high clouds for the 24 hour TAF forecast period. Sfc winds sw5-15kts
during the daytime hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions will persist for today
and Wednesday. Generally light southwest winds today becoming
stronger and gusty at times on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
through this period. Expect gusty southwest winds on Thursday. Winds
look to briefly decrease on Friday, before strengthening again
on Saturday.






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