094
FXUS65 KFGZ 170423
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 PM MST Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak short-wave will increase winds through Tuesday,
resulting in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. The
ridge strengthens on Wednesday, keeping hot temperatures through the
rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong ridging remains the main story, keeping hot
temperatures around through the rest of the week. Temperatures will
be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with the hottest temperatures
expected in the lower elevations of Yavapai County and areas below
4000 feet in the Grand Canyon. The Extreme Heat Warning will
continue through Friday for the Grand Canyon with temperatures at
Phantom Ranch of 110-113 degrees. Tuesday continues to look like it
will be slightly less hot but temperatures will still be in the 105-
110 degree range. Temperatures will rise again on Wednesday and then
peak on Thursday across the region before we start to see them
gradually fall as we head into the weekend. If planning outdoor
activities, be sure to stay hydrated, wear light colors and plenty
of sunscreen, and try to avoid being outside during the hottest
parts of the day.

A weak shortwave will cross the region Tuesday but with no moisture
available we will remain hot and dry. The pressure gradient tightens
up as the wave pushes towards he east and that will bring stronger
winds to the region through Tuesday. Southwest to west winds around
15 to 25 mph are expected with gusts of 25 to 35 mph, and some
locally higher gusts of 40 mph possible. The strongest gusts will be
across eastern Arizona on Tuesday, especially across the Little
Colorado River Valley. With the very dry conditions, hot temperatures,
gusty winds, and low RH values (less than 10%), critical fire weather
concerns are expected across eastern Arizona. Near- critical fire
weather conditions are expected elsewhere on Tuesday. Any spark could
start a fire and the potential for rapid spread is a big concern.

Once the wave passes through the region, we see that the ridge
reestablishes itself and persists through the rest of the week. This
will keep it hot and dry through Friday. In advance of an approaching
trough, the gradient will tighten and it will again become windy
on Thursday and Friday, with wind gusts around 25-35 mph both days.
Near-critical fire weather concerns return for Thursday and Friday
across much of the region.

As we head into the weekend, a trough starts to dig down through the
Great Basin. There are varying solutions on just how far south the
trough will dig, but it looks likely that this will bring in some
cooler air and give us slightly less hot daytime temperatures.
Additionally, the gradient will remain tight and winds will increase
with gusts around 25-35 mph on Saturday and around 20-30 mph on
Sunday. Near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 17/06Z through Wednesday 18/06Z...VFR
conditions are forecast. Light and variable winds generally 10
kts or less most locations the remainder of the night, except
southwest gusts to 20 kts downwind of terrain features. Winds
pick up again after 16Z, becoming southwest at 10-20 kts gusting
to 30 kts, diminishing after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 18/06Z through Friday 20/06Z...VFR conditions.
Winds variable at 10 kts or less lasting into Thursday morning.
Stronger winds return Thursday afternoon becoming south at 10-20
kts gusting to 30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Hot and very dry, with
regions of critical fire weather concerns on Tuesday. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for portions of northeast AZ for Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Winds are west 15-25 mph gusting 30-40 mph on
Tuesday, with minimum RH 5-10%. Conditions stay dry on Wednesday and
winds becoming much lighter.

Thursday through Saturday...Continued hot and dry conditions. Winds
are south-southwest 10-20 mph on Thursday, becoming 15-25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph on Friday and Saturday. Minimum RH will be 5-15%
each afternoon. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions
possible Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Friday for AZZ006.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ111-113-114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff