760
FXUS65 KFGZ 252329
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
429 PM MST Sun Oct 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms linger across
eastern Arizona through this afternoon. Gradually warmer and dry
conditions are expected through at least the middle of this week.
Unsettled weather may return late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A cut off low centered over northern Arizona
today, will move to the north and east through tonight. This system
has been keeping cooler temperatures across the region with dry air
starting to fill in from west to east. However, moisture continues
to linger, especially across eastern Arizona, where isolated showers
and thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon. Rainfall
amounts look to be light though a few heavier showers are possible.

For Monday through the end of the week...The low lifts out of the
region and the flow becomes more zonal across the area. A couple of
troughs look to pass to the north of the region through the week but
remain far enough away that we see no impacts from them. Warming
temperatures are expected with drier conditions returning to the
region. This pattern looks to hold through about midweek, then we
start to see troughing develop to the west. The trough starts to dig
down from the Pacific Northwest but won`t move through the region
until the weekend/early next week. Meanwhile, the increasing
southerly flow will allow for tropical/sub-tropical moisture to be
pulled back into the Desert Southwest. Models are in fair agreement
on the low tracking through the Great Basin next weekend, but
several waves moving through the flow will move across Arizona and
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday onward.
Additional rainfall on our already saturated grounds may cause new
flooding concerns. Definitely a system we want to keep an eye on as
we go through the week. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 26/00Z through Tuesday 27/00Z...Primarily VFR
conditions. Localized MVFR conditions in ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA northeast
of a KPGA-KRQE line through 02Z. Winds are light and VRB at 5-10
kts through the period.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 27/00Z through Thursday 29/00Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are SW 5-15 kts each day. Light and VRB or terrain driven
winds each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry conditions and turning a
bit warmer. Light and variable winds on Monday becoming southwest at
5-15 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions with gradually warming
temperatures through Wednesday with daytime winds south to southwest
5-15 mph. Thursday will see increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms late, becoming likely on Friday. Southwest winds at 10-
20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff