254
FXUS65 KFGZ 120425
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather will continue through Thursday.
Weather turns breezy and cooler Friday, ahead of a storm system due
Saturday and Sunday. This storm has changed in direction and rain
and snow chances now arrive later. Expect colder temperatures and
chances of rain and high elevation snow over the the weekend and
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The adage is that a cut off low is a weatherman`s
woe. This is certainly turning out to be the case concerning the
storm system we have been watching for the end of the week. While
trends a few days ago were for a more progressive system, current
trends are for this low to cut off from the westerlies much earlier
than anticipated. The low then meanders off the California coast for
several days, before ejecting northeast somewhere through the
interior SW.

This will start to change our forecast significantly, with a 24-36
delay in precipitation development and a reduction in potential snow
amounts. The best QPF period now looks to be late Saturday through
Sunday as the low ejects, even that could still change. We adapted
the best we could, but now we will have to watch closely, as these
cut off lows can really be stubborn.

For early next week, it looks like a more active pattern as several
lows potentially cut off over the SW, unsettled and cool looks solid
for now.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 12/06Z through Thursday 13/06Z...Look for VFR
conditions with local haze/smoke from prescribed burns across the
area. Winds light and variable at 10 kts or less.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 13/06Z through Saturday 15/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Winds south at 5-15 kts gusting to 20 kts on
Thursday strengthening to 10-20 kts gusting to 25 kts on Friday.
A slight chance of showers developing after 12Z Friday, mainly
west of a KPAN-KPGA line.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry conditions with
temperatures about 10 degrees above average. Winds S-SW 5-10 mph
Wednesday, S-SW 10-15 mph Thursday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25%
on both days.

Friday through Sunday...Unsettled conditions move into the region as
early as Friday with the latest models showing a later arrival and
longer duration of this next system. Precipitation chances last
through the whole weekend with most of it likely falling as rain.
Snow levels start around 9,000ft for Friday and Saturday, lowering
to 7,500-8,000ft on Sunday.  Winds SW-W 15-25 mph, gusting to 25 mph
on Friday, SE-S 5-10 mph on Saturday, SW 10-15 mph Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff