724
FXUS65 KFGZ 142002
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
102 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong area of high pressure will remain over the
region for the next few days, bringing seasonably warm
temperatures and dry conditions. A weak short-wave looks to slide
through early next week, mainly increasing winds and slightly
dropping afternoon highs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge continues to build across the Southwest
through the weekend, bringing a dry period with impactful heat.
Afternoon highs will rise 5-10 degrees above normal as the ridge
peaks in intensity today through Monday, and we will see some of the
warmest temperatures of the year so far. An Extreme Heat Warning is
in effect today through Monday in the Grand Canyon for sites below
4000` elevation, where temperatures are expected to reach 110
degrees. Bring adequate gear, food, and water if you are planning to
hike. Elsewhere, be sure to exercise enhanced caution with any
outdoor activities this weekend especially for individuals who are
sensitive to heat.

An approaching trough starts pushing in off the coast of California
early next week. A modest 500mb jet feature will move across
northern AZ on Monday-Tuesday, and elevated winds are expected. The
magnitude of surface winds hinges on the strength and timing of the
jet. Ensemble guidance is leaning towards a solution where the
strongest mid-level winds arrive overnight Monday-Tuesday while the
surface winds adequately decouple. However if the jet feature
arrives just a bit sooner, afternoon mixing would support stronger
winds on Monday particularly in northwest AZ. Any slight
deviation in timing could have substantial impacts on the true
wind speed Monday or Tuesday, and thus ensemble spread remains
high. With a dry airmass in place, regions of Near-Critical to
Critical fire weather conditions should be expected regardless
early next week.

Temperatures will briefly return to near average on Tuesday as the
trough traverses the region. Temperatures look to rebound to above
average by the middle of next week and may usher in a period of
further heat concerns.


&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 14/18Z through Sunday 15/18Z...VFR expected.
SW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, becoming light and
variable after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 15/18Z through Tuesday 17/18Z...VFR expected.
SW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts on Sunday, increasing to
10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Hot and very dry conditions
expected with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Afternoon RH
around 5-10% with poor overnight recoveries. SW winds 10-20 mph with
gusts 20-25 mph on Sunday, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 25-30
mph on Monday. Near-critical to critical fire weather possible on
Monday over northwestern Arizona.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot and very dry conditions continue with
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Afternoon RH around 5-10%
each day. SW-W winds 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on Tuesday,
becoming 5-15 mph on Wednesday, then increasing to 10-20 mph on
Thursday. Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns on
Tuesday, mainly along the Little Colorado River Valley.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Monday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff