544
FXUS65 KFGZ 120541
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1041 PM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
tonight. Drier air will move into northwest AZ on Sunday, with
showers and thunderstorms continuing over central and eastern
Arizona. Unsettled and cool conditions are expected to continue
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Main rain band from whats left of tropical cyclone
Priscilla is pushing off to the east, with only the eastern Rim
and White Mountains still getting a steady rain. So much moisture
remains across the area that it only takes a quick peek of sun to
regenerate convective clouds. Question is will it be enough
surface heating to generate sufficient CAPE to get some storms
going. Approaching West Coast trough is bringing some decent shear
across the area to help assist anything that gets going and could
lead to some stronger and maybe even a couple severe storms, but
storms so far this afternoon have been slow to get going. Will
keep monitoring to see what happens.

For Sunday there`s still plenty of leftover subtropical moisture
and some leftover lift from the trough moving to our north to
generate a few more showers and thunderstorms across the area,
though most of the activity will be south of I-40. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms is possible Monday as southwesterly
flow ahead of another West Coast trough approaches the area. By
Tuesday this trough closes off into a Low over the San Francisco
Bay Area, but building high pressure over Texas will retrograde
enough to push this Low to our north, in turn taking its moisture
with it and finally drying out the leftover subtropical moisture
out of our area. Even though this trough takes its moisture north,
enough of its cool air remains far enough south to keep our
maximum temperatures below average for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 12/06Z through Monday 13/06Z...Widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms with LCL MVFR conditions with storms.
MVFR and LCL IFR conditions will be present at high elevation
sites through 14Z due to low clouds and fog. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop again on Sunday, with MVFR to brief IFR
possible generally along and south of a line from KFLG-KSOW.
Winds will be light, but gusty around any storms.

OUTLOOK...Monday 13/06Z through Wednesday 15/06Z...Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday, most numerous along
and east of a line from KPAN-KRQE. Mostly VFR conditions on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds SW 5-15kts, with gusts to 25kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Showers and thunderstorms
remain in the area both days, becoming more scattered in nature and
primarily remaining south of I-40. Winds S-SW 5-10 mph on Sunday, S-
SW 10-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph on Monday. Gusty and erratic winds can
be expected near showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday...A couple isolated showers or storms on
Tuesday, mainly from the morning to early afternoon, with the best
rain chances over the Chuskas and White Mountains. Things dry out
for Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime winds S-SW 10-20 mph with gusts
to 30 mph Tuesday and Wednesday, with daytime winds W-NW 5-15 mph on
Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MST /1 AM MDT/ tonight for AZZ004>010-
012-013-015-016-018-037>040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff