362
FXUS65 KFGZ 161149
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
449 AM MST Wed Sep 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A Flash Flood Watch kicks in today for all our CWA, so
anticipate persistent showers and thunderstorms for the next
24-36 hours. Although heavy rain leading to flash flooding will be
one of the main concerns, some storms will be stronger in nature
and could also produce gusty/erratic winds and hail. Activity will
decrease through the end of the week and over the weekend,
although a stray shower or two across higher terrain is not out
of the question. Seasonable temperatures and breezy southwest
winds are also expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The conversation of overnight activity has come to
fruition, as showers and thunderstorms propagate northward through
Yavapai County. Storms are moving quickly and there doesn`t appear
to be much in the way of training thunderstorms, so we aren`t
overly concerned with any flash flooding at the moment. For now,
the main impact looks to be a few folks being woken up by some
thunder. However, we do have a Flash Flood Watch in effect
starting at midnight and continuing through 5 AM MST Thursday.

Model guidance hasn`t been our best friend the last several days,
but from what I`ve seen recently, all models seem to agree today
(Wednesday) will be the most active in terms of showers and
thunderstorms. Where models quickly disagree is the timing. Some
models suggests the worst of it will be overnight tonight/early
Wednesday morning, others suggest Wednesday afternoon/evening
getting the bulk of the activity. With how radar is looking right
now, I`d put more weight on the solutions suggesting this
afternoon/evening being the busiest. WPC also has much of Arizona
in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and also a section of the
state (Tucson to Payson roughly) in a Moderate Risk. So there is
confidence in continuous showers and thunderstorms throughout the
day, with our southern zones likely having the greatest coverage.
While any location will be susceptible to flash flooding, recent
burn scars will be even more prone to flooding concerns. With
that being said, be sure to have a way to receive warnings and
never drive into a flooded roadway!

This active pattern is due to a large area of low pressure
positioned across the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will shift
by the end of the week and over the weekend as the low lifts more
inland and a high pressure system moves towards the West Coast.
This will bring drier conditions across the state Saturday and
Sunday, but this drier trend looks to be short-lived with another
disturbance potentially moving in early next week. Stay tuned for
more details.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 16/12Z through Thursday 17/12Z...Look for
isolated -SHRA/-TSRA through 17Z. After 17Z, expect numerous
SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA across northern Arizona for the
remainder of the period. Storm activity will result in areas of
MVFR/IFR conditions due to low clouds and TSRA. Away from
thunderstorm outflows, winds S at 5-15 kts gusting 15-25 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 17/12Z through Saturday 19/12Z...Expect
scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA until 00Z Friday,
with areas of MVFR/IFR conditions due to low clouds and TSRA.
After 00Z Friday, storm activity is forecast to decrease, with the
best chances for storms over higher terrain in Navajo and Apache
counties. Outside of gusty/erratic thunderstorm outflows, winds
generally south to southwest at 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are forecast through Thursday morning, bringing
wetting rain to the region. There is an elevated risk of flash
flooding, especially over recent burn scars. A few isolated severe
storms are also possible. Outside of storm activity, expect near to
below average temperatures and south to southwest winds 10-15 mph
gusting up to 25 mph. Expect gusty and erratic winds in/near storms.

Friday through Sunday...A drying trend will lead to decreasing storm
coverage over the weekend. Temperatures will remain near average
with south to southwest winds around 10 mph during the daytime
hours, becoming light overnight.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ004>018-037>040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff