106
FXUS65 KFGZ 281121
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
421 AM MST Sun Sep 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Sunday evening. Due to the saturated conditions in some
areas, stronger storms may produce flash flooding. Expect dry and
warmer weather next week, with increased southwesterly breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Our upper low is on the move this morning, now
crossing the Lower Colorado River north of Blythe. This low will
move slowly east-northeast across Arizona today, filling as it does.
The low will then be nearly completely sheared out and into New
Mexico by Monday morning.

This leaves one more day of cold temperatures aloft acting on the
plentiful moisture in our area. However, shear and dynamical forcing
that has existed east of the low for a few days will go away. This
leaves mainly pulse storms by this afternoon. It does look like one
more dynamical plume of moisture works its way up the I-17 corridor
this morning. Amounts should be fairly light in this plume, as the
boundary layer is very cold.

By Monday, much drier air and rising hghts develops across Arizona.
Expect precipitation chances to end, along with slowly warming high
temperatures, increased southwesterly breezes and colder nights. A
very typical fall pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 28/12Z through Monday 29/12Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA
and ISOLD +TSRA through early Sunday evening. Lower clouds over the
higher terrain as well as locations with precipitation may produce
MVFR. Shower and thunderstorm activity decreases rapidly from west
to east Sunday night. Sfc winds outside of storms will not affect
flight operations.

OUTLOOK...Monday 29/12Z through Wednesday 01/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD or single cell -SHRA possible over Apache County
Monday afternoon. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20g25kts

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue through early Sunday evening. Isolated
stronger storms may become severe and capable of producing flash
flooding. Much drier Monday, with daytime temperatures rising to
around normal. Light southerly winds 5 to 15 mph both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry. Daytime temperatures remain around
normal, with chilly overnight readings in the high country. Daytime
southerly winds 10 to 20 mph, with locally higher gusts.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

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