604
FXUS65 KFGZ 150427
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
927 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong area of high pressure will remain over the
region for the next few days, bringing seasonably warm
temperatures and dry conditions. A weak short-wave looks to slide
through early next week, mainly increasing winds and slightly
dropping afternoon highs.

&&

.UPDATE...No change to the current forecast package. Near normal
overnight lows and light winds are in store under a few high level
cirrus. The heat will continue, especially at lower elevations. If
you are at work or play over the next few days, plan accordingly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /438 PM MST/...A strong ridge continues to build
across the Southwest through the weekend, bringing a dry period
with impactful heat. Afternoon highs will rise 5-10 degrees above
normal as the ridge peaks in intensity today through Monday, and
we will see some of the warmest temperatures of the year so far.
An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect today through Monday in the
Grand Canyon for sites below 4000` elevation, where temperatures
are expected to reach 110 degrees. Bring adequate gear, food, and
water if you are planning to hike. Elsewhere, be sure to exercise
enhanced caution with any outdoor activities this weekend
especially for individuals who are sensitive to heat.
1030
An approaching trough starts pushing in off the coast of California
early next week. A modest 500mb jet feature will move across
northern AZ on Monday-Tuesday, and elevated winds are expected. The
magnitude of surface winds hinges on the strength and timing of the
jet. Ensemble guidance is leaning towards a solution where the
strongest mid-level winds arrive overnight Monday-Tuesday while the
surface winds adequately decouple. However if the jet feature
arrives just a bit sooner, afternoon mixing would support stronger
winds on Monday particularly in northwest AZ. Any slight
deviation in timing could have substantial impacts on the true
wind speed Monday or Tuesday, and thus ensemble spread remains
high. With a dry airmass in place, regions of Near-Critical to
Critical fire weather conditions should be expected regardless
early next week.

Temperatures will briefly return to near average on Tuesday as the
trough traverses the region. Temperatures look to rebound to above
average by the middle of next week and may usher in a period of
further heat concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 15/06Z through Monday 16/06Z...Look for VFR
conditions. Light and variable winds overnight, becoming
southwest at 10-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 16/06Z through Wednesday 18/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Expect southwest winds at 10-20 kts with gusts to
30 kts on Monday and Tuesday. Overnight winds generally light less
than 15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Hot and dry conditions
will continue. Expect afternoon relative humidity ranging from 5-10%
with poor overnight recovery. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts
of 20-25 mph on Sunday, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 25-30 mph
on Monday. Near-critical to critical fire weather possible on Monday
over northwestern Arizona.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot and dry conditions are forecast.
Afternoon relative humidity ranging for 5-10% each day. Southwest to
west winds 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on Tuesday, becoming
lighter at 10-20 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. Near-critical to
critical fire weather concerns on Tuesday, mainly along the Little
Colorado River Valley.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Monday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/Lewandowski
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff