641
FXUS65 KFGZ 111120
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 AM MST Tue Aug 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect active Monsoon conditions this week, along
with cooler daytime temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will retreat eastward over the next
several days, as a long-wave trough forms over the eastern Pacific.
This will allow capping to weaken and southerly flow to increase
across the region. This is a good recipe for active weather and we
expect moderate to high grade Monsoon conditions through much of the
week as a result.

With the active conditions comes more cloud cover and rain-cooled
air. The warm temperatures that stuck around for most of last week
will continue to cool each day, heat related headlines will not be
needed.

By the end of the week and into next weekend, there is potential for
some drying, as the west coast trough attempts to move inland. This
could bring drier, mid-level air and effectively reduce convection
over our state. However, if the trough does not move inland as much
or if it ejects farther north, it may just keep our active weather
going. For now, we have tapered off PoPs a little bit, but we will
need to watch this pattern closely, as any change on the trough
position could make a big difference.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 11/12Z through Wednesday 12/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions away from thunderstorms. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD
+TSRA through the period, but especially in the afternoon hours.
Stronger storms may produce brief MVFR/IFR and wind gusts as high
as 45kts. Sfc winds are not anticipated to affect flight operations.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/12Z through Friday 14/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions away from thunderstorms. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD
+TSRA through the period, but especially in the afternoon hours.
Stronger storms may produce brief MVFR/IFR and wind gusts as high
as 45kts. Sfc winds are not anticipated to affect flight operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Expect active Monsoon
conditions each day, with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, expect generally light
winds. Daytime temperatures will decrease as cloud cover and
rainfall increase.

Thursday through Saturday...Active conditions continue Thursday with
some drying developing by Friday and Saturday. Daytime temperatures
will continue to trend downward. Expect southwesterly winds at 10 to
15 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff