983
FXUS65 KFGZ 141126
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
426 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures and dry conditions remain for today.
An approaching storm system then brings cooler temperatures,
gusty winds, and chances for rain and mountain snow over the
weekend. Cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions are expected
to continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Heights begin to fall today ahead of an
approaching closed- low off the California coast. As a result, a
dip in temperatures is expected along with slightly breezier
winds. Dry conditions look to prevail for the vast majority of the
area, however a brief shower or two can not be totally ruled out
across western Arizona to near the Kaibab Plateau.

Saturday and Sunday...The aforementioned low looks to ejected off the
Pacific on Saturday, driving moisture northward into Arizona. As a
result, an area of precipitation is expected to develop from west to
east late Saturday and continue into much of Sunday. A weak band of
frontogenetic forcing looks to move through northern Arizona early
on Sunday, which should help to promote a brief period of moderate
to heavy precipitation across the region. As such, the bulk of the
precipitation looks to occur during this time frame.

QPF amounts for this event seem to be fairly consistent over the
last several model runs (maybe just slightly lower). The current
think still keeps the bulk of the precipitation along and south of
the Mogollon Rim and into portions of western Arizona. For these
areas, around 0.50-1.25" of liquid are expected, with some locally
higher amounts in the typical upslope areas along the Rim. To the
north and east, amount fall off to mainly 0.10-0.30" with the
highest amounts more focused in the upslope areas near Black Mesa
and Chuska Mountains.

Virtually all of the precipitation for this storm looks to fall as
rain. With the track of the low center well to the north, we remain
within the warm air for nearly the entire event. As a result, snow
levels look to remain above 8000-8500 feet through at least mid-day
Sunday. Some wet snow flakes may mix in with the higher terrain near
7000 feet late Sunday, however the moisture pool looks to be fairly
shallow at this point and well below the DGZ. As a result, little to
no snow accumulations are expected for much of the region. The best
shot at seeing any snow looks to mainly be the upper portions of the
Kaibab Plateau, San Francisco Peaks, and the White Mountains.

Gusty south/southwest winds are also expected ahead of the low
primarily late Saturday into the first-half of Sunday. Gusts upwards
of 25-35 mph look probable over much of the higher terrain, with
some locally gustier locations possible.

Monday through Thursday...Showers remain on Monday in the wake of
the departing low. However, coverage looks to be greatly reduced,
and primarily focused over the higher terrain.

This reprieve is short-lived however, with another closed-low
developing over California late Monday and then ejecting off the
Pacific on Tuesday. Guidance looks to be in slightly better agreement
on the track of the low with the latest runs, however they are
still far from alignment. The operational runs of the GFS and CMC
both favor the low tracking further south near Baja, while the
ECMWF looks to take the system further north through Nevada and
into Utah. Thus, confidence in any potential impacts with this
secondary system still remain low at this time. Current trends
though would suggest more rain than snow once again, as much of
the guidance has continued to come in warmer. Nevertheless, a
breezy, cool, and unsettled pattern looks to remain through much
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 14/12Z through Saturday 15/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. After 18Z, winds south-southwest 5-10 kts gusting
10-20 kts. Some localized FU due to prescribed burns.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 15/12Z through Monday 17/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions through 00Z-03Z Sunday. Then, -SHRA/SHRA spreading west
to east for the remainder of the period. Some MVFR conditions over
higher terrain in the heavier showers. Winds south-southwest
10-20 kts gusting to 25 kts on Saturday. Southwest 15-25 kts
gusting 25-35 kts on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Turning cooler. Dry conditions
for today, with showers then increasing from west to east through
the day on Saturday. South winds 5-10 mph today, increasing to 5-15
mph on Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 20-30% today, increasing to 25-
45% on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Widespread rain with some snow mixing in at
times in the higher elevations on Sunday. Chances for precipitation
continue through the period, with the next best shot on Tuesday.
Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph on Sunday, subsiding to 5-15 mph for
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff