580
FXUS65 KFGZ 252300
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
400 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and dry conditions continue through the week.
There is low certainty on a potential storm system to impact the
area over the holiday weekend, stay tuned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...Ridging will continue to build
through mid-week, and we remain in period of quiet weather. Expect
light winds and a gradual warming trend, with daytime highs reaching
5-10 degrees above normal for the majority of our forecast area.
Pleasant weather is forecast for Thanksgiving. The only other
thing of note is the potential for patchy morning fog tomorrow,
especially in basins north of the Mogollon Rim.

Saturday through Monday...Extended guidance shows potential for
another unsettled period this weekend into next week, but many
ensemble members have recently trended drier. The mean 72 hour QPF
ending Monday morning has nearly cut in half across our forecast
area in the past 24 hours. More members favor a scenario where
stronger ridging along the west coast keeps us under a drier
northwesterly flow. There remains a percentage of solutions where
a deep low dives in to bring rain and snow this weekend, so
continue to monitor the forecast in the upcoming days should
things begin to trend the other direction.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 26/00Z through Thursday 27/00Z...Primarily VFR
conditions, but isolated patchy FG is possible from 08-16Z over
the Little Colorado River Valley including KINW/KSJN. Winds are
generally light and VRB through the period, but NE winds 5-15 kts
are possible downwind of terrain features.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 27/00Z through Saturday 29/00Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are generally light and VRB Thursday, then SW 5-10 kts
Friday. NE winds 5-15 kts are possible downwind of terrain
features overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Seasonably warm and dry
conditions are expected. Winds are light and variable each day.
Daytime highs are 2-8 degrees above normal, with minimum RH 25-45%
each day.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions Friday, then high
uncertainty on a potential storm system brining rain and snow
starting Sunday morning. A cooling trend is anticipated, with
daytime highs dropping near or below normal. Winds may ramp up
slightly, generally out of the southwest through northwest 5-15
mph Friday and Saturday then 10-20 mph on Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
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