280
FXUS65 KFGZ 091730
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1030 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather will continue through much of
next week. A colder and more unsettled pattern with chances for
precipitation returns for Friday and the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge over the southwest US will persist
through Tuesday before weakening and getting suppressed
southeastward by an advancing trough moving onto the west coast.
As a result, expect afternoon high temperatures to be 5-10 degrees
above average for this time of year. Some northeasterly breezes
will continue today into Monday, mainly for areas along and just
south of the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim and Yavapai County
mountains. Skies will be mostly clear through Monday and then some
mid and high clouds move in.

Thursday into the weekend - models and ensembles have come into
better agreement that a trough will affect our region, starting
with increasing clouds and southwest winds on Thursday. There is
still quite a bit of spread in the model data for Friday and the
weekend regarding precipitation amounts and snow levels/temperatures,
but confidence is increasing in colder weather with rain and
higher elevation snowfall. In our current forecast using a blended
model approach, the highest precipitation chances (50-60%) are on
Friday into Saturday and then moving out Sunday. Still too early
to get too specific with snow levels and amounts, but the latest
NBM probabilities of at least 1" of snow peak Friday night/early
Saturday at 20-30% generally above 6500 feet - with higher
chances over mountain peaks. Stay tuned for more details through
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 09/18Z through Monday 10/18Z...VFR conditions.
Areas of HZ/FU possible due to prescribed burns. Localized NE-E
winds 10-20 kts in areas south of the Mogollon Rim through 21Z, otherwise
VRB at 5-15 kts. Light and variable most areas overnight, however
areas downslope of the Mogollon Rim like KSEZ could see NE-E winds
10-15kts gusting to 25kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 10/18Z through Wednesday 12/18Z...VFR conditions.
Localized areas of HZ/FU possible due to prescribed burns. Winds are
generally VRB at 10 kts or less through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Dry conditions with temperatures
5-10 degrees above average. Winds generally north through east at 5-
15 mph today, becoming light and variable or terrain driven on
Monday. Minimum afternoon RH between 15-25% Sunday, 10-20% Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue.
Winds are generally southwest through west at 10 mph or less on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then southwest 10-15 mph on Thursday. Minimum
RH 10-20% on Tuesday, 15-25% Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff