647
FXUS65 KFGZ 311052
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain chances will be limited mainly to the White
Mountains region this weekend, with otherwise dry and seasonable
weather expected across northern Arizona. Rain and thunderstorm
chances will gradually increase next week with an expected return
of monsoon moisture, especially by the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is centered over the southwestern U.S.
this morning, stretching northward into the Northern Rocky
Mountains. This overall synoptic pattern makes very little
movement in the coming days, which will lead to the continuation
of seasonal late summer weather and light winds.

Most areas will remain dry today, with the exception of the White
Mountains in eastern Arizona, which will see scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening. As the
aforementioned high pressure center slowly shifts northward early
in the week, minor shifts to a low level south/southeasterly flow
will begin to draw moisture northward. Expect increasing chances
for showers/storms Monday through the week, especially for areas
along and south of the Mogollon Rim. The positioning of the high
near the AZ/UT border on Tuesday/Wednesday should keep a northeasterly
mid-level steering flow. This pattern favors afternoon storm
development along the Rim, moving southward into Yavapai/Gila
counties with some stronger storms possible in the late afternoon
and evening. An overall more active pattern looks to be shaping up
late in the week as monsoon moisture increases across the state and
has the potential to interact with a trough moving in from the
west. There is model consensus in the returning moisture, but
still some differences in the eventual interaction of any trough
features. We can expect a more active monsoon pattern across the
area late this week into next weekend with correspondingly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 31/12Z through Monday 01/12Z...VFR conditions
are expected to continue. Isolated to scattered -TSRA south of a
KPAN - KSJN line from 19-03Z. Brief MVFR and wind gusts up to 35
kts possible in/near storms. Otherwise, light winds 10 kts or
less.

OUTLOOK...Monday 01/12Z through Wednesday 03/12Z...Isolated to
scattered -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon/evening, mainly along and
south of a KCMR - KSJN line. Storm coverage increases on Tuesday.
Stronger storms may produce MVFR conditions and wind gusts up to
40 kts. Outside of any storms, expect light winds mainly less than
10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in the White Mountains today,
spreading to areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim on Monday.
Temperatures will be near to a few degrees above average with
daytime humidity ranging from 10-30%. Light winds less than 10-15
mph can be expected both day.

Tuesday through Thursday...Gradually increasing monsoon moisture
will lead to increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, especially
along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Expect seasonal temperatures
with a gradual increasing trend in humidity. Generally light winds
less than 10-15 mph are expected.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff