455
FXUS65 KFGZ 120906
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
206 AM MST Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will dominate through the forecast
period, bringing seasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge will continue to build across the
region through the beginning of next week. As a result of this
pattern, afternoon highs will land 5-10 degrees above normal for
this time of year. Temperatures will certainly be warm/hot across
northern Arizona, but the main location for concern will be at the
lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. An Extreme Heat Watch has
been issued for areas below 4000` at the Grand Canyon for Saturday
and Sunday, where temperatures could reach 110 degrees.
Regardless, if you decide to enjoy some outdoor weather this
weekend, be sure to stay hydrated and seek shade often!

Early next week, the large ridge will gradually shift eastward as
a trough begins to push in across the West Coast. This will
position Arizona in a tighter pressure gradient pattern,
increasing southwest winds across the state. Currently, winds look
to remain below any product thresholds, but we could see elevated
fire weather concerns from the combination of continued dry
conditions and breezy winds.

Model guidance begins to differ in solutions as we inch towards
the middle of next week. The main difference being noted is the
trajectory and timing of the previously mentioned trough moving
more inland. There`s greater confidence that we`ll see a slight
cooling trend and increased winds with this onset of this system,
but we can`t completely rule out the possibility of some moisture
too. We`ll continue to keep an eye on this.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 12/06Z through Friday 13/06Z...Look for VFR
conditions. Expect light winds less than 15 kts the remainder of
the night, strengthening again after 15Z becoming southwest at
10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts. Winds diminishing after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 13/06Z through Sunday 15/06Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts both days,
becoming light at less than 15 kts each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Warm and dry with temperatures
about 5 degrees above average. Minimum relative humidity of 5-15
percent both days. Winds SW-W at 10-20 mph with gusts 20-30 mph both
days. Winds will be strongest today leading to localized fire
weather concerns.

Saturday through Monday...Dry and turning hot with daytime highs
reaching 5-10 degrees above average. Expect minimum relative
humidity of 5-10 percent each afternoon. Winds SW 10-15 mph gusting
to 25 mph on Saturday and Sunday, strengthening to SW 15-25 mph
gusting to 35 mph on Monday. Near critical fire weather conditions
are possible on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff