090
FXUS63 KFSD 161724
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1124 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return by Monday afternoon, possibly mixing with
  light snow in higher elevations of southwest Minnesota before
  ending early Tuesday morning.

- Moderate confidence in precipitation timing (Monday afternoon
  to early Tuesday morning) and location (best chances north to
  east of Sioux Falls), but still low confidence in amounts.

- Dry midweek, with unsettled conditions again by the end of the
  work week. Greater uncertainty in storm track/timing, though
  better precipitation chances are currently favored south of
  U.S. Highway 18.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

TODAY-TONIGHT: Surface high pressure will provide light winds
with fairly extensive cloud cover in response to a mid-level
warm front across the northeast half of the forecast area. The
clouds and limited mixing will limit highs to the mid to upper
40s in these locations, with mid to locally upper 50s through
the Missouri River Valley where sun should be more prevalent
today. Increasing warm advection through tonight ahead of our
approaching wave will lead to a mild night with lows in the 30s.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: The first half of Monday should remain on the
dry side as the approaching wave will be fighting dry low levels
in the wake of the departing surface ridge. As the low levels
saturate through the afternoon, a mid level dry slot will work
into areas south of I-90. This along with a strengthening mid
level front north of I-90 will focus the better rain chances
across our northern counties by later Monday afternoon-evening,
though southern areas could still see periods of light rain or
drizzle. While exact placement of what could be a relatively
narrow band of heavier rain is still fluctuating, latest models
continue to favor areas north of I-90 with some trend toward the
Highway 14 corridor or even farther north.

As far as rainfall amounts, some deterministic models continue
to produce totals exceeding a half inch within the narrow band.
However the broader ensemble shows lower confidence in these
amounts with only 10-20% probability of exceeding 0.50" north
of a Huron-Madison-Spencer Iowa line. These same areas north
through east of Sioux Falls show moderate (40-60%) probability
of exceeding 0.25" Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

The continued northward trend in precipitation is also seen in
the thermal profiles, with temperatures more likely to remain
above freezing Monday night as surface dew points increase to
32F or higher. As a result, accumulating snow is looking less
likely, though still cannot rule out a period of rain/snow mix
in the higher elevations of southwest Minnesota before the
precipitation moves out of the area early Tuesday morning.

MID-LATE WEEK: Weak mid-upper level ridging and partial
clearing Wednesday will allow for a brief warm-up into the 50s
for most locations before another storm system moves into the
central U.S. late this week. While the track of this system is
still uncertain with the wave still over the northeast Pacific,
the majority of ensemble clusters track the system through the
central Plains with precipitation chances in our forecast area
focused south of I-90 Thursday night and Friday.

Those solutions which bring greater chances farther north are
also warmer, while the colder model solutions generally push
the precipitation chances south of the forecast area. In short,
it looks like rain should be the dominant precipitation type
with this system, though cannot rule out some light snow on the
northern fringes of the precipitation shield.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. Besides lingering
altostratus through this evening, not expecting any significant
aviation impacts. Otherwise, light and variable winds will
become more southeasterly to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...05