539
FXUS63 KFSD 282100
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
300 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow continues tonight into Saturday afternoon, exiting the
  area to our east by early Saturday evening. Snowfall amounts
  look to be around 6-12 inches mainly along and southeast of a
  Yankton to Sioux Falls to Slayton line, with the highest
  amounts nearing a foot in parts of northwest Iowa. Additional
  snowfall amounts elsewhere look to be between 3-6 inches. A
  glaze of ice is expected south of I-90 into the southern
  Missouri River Valley and US Highway 20 corridor.

- Expect disruptions to travel through the weekend; travel will
  become increasingly difficult if not impossible in some areas,
  especially Saturday afternoon. Be sure to check road
  conditions before traveling, and be prepared to adjust your
  plans. If you must travel, keep a preparedness kit in your
  car.

- Much colder air spreads in by Sunday and continues most of
  next week with the lows down to the single digits and wind
  chills below 0F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The forecast remains largely on track. Currently, a band
of snow stretches from north-central South Dakota into northwest
Iowa and is moving eastward, aided by WAA at 850 mb. Snow initially
had some trouble reaching the surface with this band north of I-90
as it had some dry air to battle with, but for the most part snow is
now reaching the ground across the entire band. As this band pushes
eastward through this evening, there will be a lull in some of the
more moderate to heavier snowfall overnight; however, guidance
continues to show additional weak banding that could develop mainly
along and south of the Missouri River Valley or south of Highway-20
depending on the model. Trends will be monitored overnight because
if any of these bands do develop over our area, a westward expansion
may be needed for the Winter Storm Warning into more of south-
central South Dakota. Also during this lull in snowfall, there could
be some freezing drizzle as we briefly lose saturation in the DGZ
mainly south of I-90 into the Highway-20 corridor. This could result
in a light glaze of ice, but widespread issues are not expected
at this time, though trends will also be monitored into this
evening.

The lull in heavier snowfall will end late tonight into tomorrow as
an upper-level trough moves into the central Plains from the
Rockies, with a surface low developing out of the central Rockies
and lifting northeastwards. These two features moving through the
region in tandem with each other will allow for another increase in
snow especially across northwest Iowa and adjacent portions of far-
northeast Nebraska, southeast South Dakota and southwest Minnesota
heading into the day Saturday. These locations are still expecting
to see the most snow, with additional amounts this afternoon into
early tomorrow evening totaling around 6-12 inches. Still can`t rule
out a few areas exceeding 12", with NBM probabilities showing a 30-
60%+ chance of this mainly southeast of a Sioux City to Spencer, IA
line. Northwesterly winds will increase through the day on Saturday,
gusting to around 35 mph especially in south-central South Dakota.
Snow should be mostly over in those areas by the time winds pick up,
leading to patchy blowing and drifting snow. An uptick in winds is
also possible over northwest Iowa Saturday afternoon as the snow is
ending, so this could also cause blowing/drifting snow concerns.

The rest of the period is looking quite cold with lows by Saturday
night dropping into the single digits, with wind chills likely
dropping below zero across much of the area. As of now, Sunday night
looks to be the coldest of the early part of next week air
temperature-wise, with lows potentially dropping below zero mainly
along Highway-14. We look to stay unseasonably cold through much of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A winter storm will bring snow accumulations and gusty winds to
the region through Saturday afternoon. MVFR stratus and light to
moderate snow will expand eastward through the I-29 corridor
this afternoon. Moderate to heavy snow and LIFR visibility are
possible at times. This evening, may see FZDZ south of I-90,
near YKN-SUX, leading to a light glaze of ice. There will be
some improvements in vsby tonight into early Saturday morning
as snow coverage lessens at times, but confidence is low in
exact timing of vsby/cig changes IFR and below. The heaviest
snowfall accumulations will occur near and east of IA/MN Highway
60, impacting KSUX and KSPW.

Expect light southeast winds today with occasional gusts up to
25 kts heading into the evening. Winds veer northeasterly
overnight, increasing and becoming northerly by mid day
Saturday. Blowing and drifting snow will lead to reduced
visibility at times, especially Saturday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     SDZ055-056-062-066-067-069>071.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for SDZ038-039-
     050-052>054-057>061-063>065-068.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     SDZ040.
MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Samet
AVIATION...BP