007
FXUS63 KFSD 110111
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
711 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence has increased in strong southwesterly winds
  bringing gusts up to 40-50 mph this evening through the early
  morning hours on Tuesday across the Buffalo Ridge in southwest
  Minnesota. A Special Weather Statement (SPS) has been issued
  for this area through 3am CST.

- A few sprinkles to flurries will be possible tonight mainly
  across southwestern MN with very light accumulations.

- Cold temperatures continue today with highs running 5-10+
  degrees below normal.

- Temperatures will continue to climb during the workweek
  leading to well above normal temperatures through the late
  week.

- Drier conditions will persist for most of the work week with
  our next rain chances (20%-30%) potentially returning over the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Confidence has increased in a strengthening low level jet (LLJ) this
evening, bringing strong gusty winds to the Buffalo Ridge in
southwest Minnesota into the early morning hours on Tuesday. Should
see winds strengthen over the next few hours, peaking with speeds up
to 20-30 mph and gusts up to 40-50 mph. This has the potential to
impact high profile vehicles passing through this area. Isolated
patches of blowing snow is also possible where there is remaining
snow on the ground. As such, have issued a Special Weather Statement
(SPS) for Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, and Cottonwood counties in
southwest Minnesota. The SPS is in effect until 09z or 3am CST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A cooler day continues! Taking a look across the
area, high level cirrus continues to filter into the region this
afternoon mainly in response to the increasing mid-level warm air
advection (WAA) progressing across the Dakotas. With this in mind
and a deeper snowpack of 2-4 inches across the area, tried to trend
temperatures a bit cooler for the day using a combination of the
BCCONSRaw and CONSShort. This would have highs peaking in the low
30s east of the James River Valley and mid 30 to low 40s west of
there with the mildest conditions closer to southcentral SD which is
a bit more reasonable given the conditions. From here, we`ll likely
see a non-dirunal temperatures trend overnight as a warm front
progresses across the area. As a result, our lows (mid 20s to mid
30s) will likely be realized this evening before temperatures
gradually warm towards daybreak. Lastly, a few flurries/sprinkles
could develop late tonight mainly across southwestern MN as
increasing dPVA interacts with a strengthening LLJ. However, with
soundings continue to show warm and dry lower levels of +11 to +13
degrees at 900 mb; expecting accumulations to very light if any.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Looking into the rest of the week, northwesterly
flow will return by Tuesday behind the previously mentioned FROPA.
Could see a few flurries linger on after daybreak. However, this
activity should continue to progress southwards out of our area by
mid-morning. From here, a milder stretch of temperatures will likely
melt our snowpack over the next couple of days as highs gradually
increase from the upper 40s to mid 50 through Wednesday. Quieter
conditions will continue from Thursday onwards as a building upper-
level ridge continue to slide eastwards. This will likely lead to a
warming trend as increasing mid-level warm air advection (WAA) and
southerly surface winds help highs approach the upper 50s to mid 60s
by Friday. Lastly, periodically breeziness will return on Tuesday
and Friday with wind gusts between 20-30 mph.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Heading into the extended period, a slightly more
active pattern returns by Saturday as an upper-level wave progresses
across the northern plains with its associated cold front. While
subtle difference in timing and location among 10.12z guidance
continues to lead to some uncertainty, some isolated to scattered
rain chances (20%-30%) could return from Saturday night into Sunday
morning mainly along and east of I-29. While ensemble guidance
continuing to show low to moderate probabilities (30%-50%) of 0.10"
of an inch or greater of QPF along and east of I-29, not too
confident in accumulating precipitation at this time mostly due to
the deep dry-layer of 5-10 kft depicted in soundings. Nonetheless,
expect temperatures to be well above normal with highs mainly in the
50s to low 60s for the rest of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Light to marginally
breezy southerly winds persist beneath thick cirrus clouds aloft.
Winds will remain breezy as the low level jet (LLJ) strengthens this
evening. The LLJ will persist through the night, brining low level
wind shear (LLWS) to the entire area. Locations along the Buffalo
Ridge in southwest Minnesota may tap into stronger gusts up to about
30 to 35 knots. Winds will begin to turn out of the west/northwest
late tonight as a warm front begins to push into the area and the
LLJ weakens aloft. The northwest winds will persist through the rest
of the day tomorrow with gusts up to about 25 knots to end the TAF
period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meyers
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...Meyers