Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
627 FXUS64 KFWD 172353 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 653 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will bring scattered storms (30-70%) on Saturday. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, mainly along and east of I-35. - Cooler weather is expected on Sunday, followed by a warm up on Monday. A couple weak cold fronts will move through the area throughout the week, with mild temperatures expected. - Low rain chances are set to return late next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: What has changed: there is higher confidence in additional showers and storms behind the front. Similar to the discussion below, latest guidance continues to show warm air advection showers in the morning, with more scattered upscale development occurring along the Pacific front as it moves east. The storms along and ahead of the Pacific front will hold our severe threat of damaging winds and large hail, particularly for areas near and east of I-35. Trailing behind the surface front is the base of the shortwave trough aloft, which will move across the region over the afternoon. Looking at isentropic analysis, there is quite a bit of mid-level lift associated with this shortwave, and with increased lapse rates and enough moisture remaining, would allow for post-frontal sub- severe precipitation to develop as the shortwave passes. The caveat to this is whether there will be enough moisture left behind the Pacific front in reality, which will impact coverage of any development. Prater Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday Night/ Another warm and mostly rain-free day is expected across the region today. High temperatures will peak in the mid 80s to low 90s. Gulf moisture will surge northward today, especially into Central Texas. This may be able to squeeze out an isolated shower across Central/Southeast Texas where we`ll advertise 10-15% PoPs through the afternoon. On Saturday, a shortwave trough at upper levels will dig into West Texas during the morning hours, with a pre-frontal trough expected to set up just west of the CWA. Low-level winds will strengthen during the early morning hours in response to the approaching shortwave, which will continue to advect rich Gulf moisture all the way into North Texas ahead of the approaching system. Warm advection showers may develop in portions of North Texas (especially western North Texas) during the morning hours, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop west of I-35 by mid to late morning as both the surface trough and shortwave reach our western border. This activity will move east through the remainder of the day, with the best coverage across North and East Texas (50-70% chance) and scattered coverage across Central Texas (30-40% chance). We will likely see a more linear structure to storms rooted along the pre-frontal trough, with more discrete showers and storms developing ahead (east) of the trough/line of storms within an area of strong warm advection. As far as the severe weather threat goes, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible along/east of the I-35 corridor, coinciding with an axis of 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 50-60 knots of deep layer shear. The greatest potential for severe storms is still expected to be along/east of I-45/US-75 during the afternoon, but there is one caveat. While models are mostly in agreement on storm timing, a couple of the CAMs are slightly slower with the shortwave/surface trough. These slower solutions would result in a slight delay in convective development, which could allow the instability axis to stretch further west than currently anticipated. If this occurs, the main severe weather threat area would shift slightly further west. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary hazards with any of this activity. The tornado threat will be low and confined to far northeastern portions of the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms will exit from west to east Saturday evening, with the arrival of a cold front bringing an end to any lingering showers or storms overnight. Cooler air will be ushered in behind the front, with lows falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s across North Texas and mid 50s to low 60s in Central Texas. Breezy north winds will also develop behind the front, with wind speeds between 10-15 mph and gusts around 20-25 mph. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025/ /Sunday Onward/ Cooler, fall-like weather is expected on Sunday in the wake of the cold front, with high temperatures mostly in the 70s. Despite the cooler temperatures, low humidity and breezy winds may result in a slightly elevated fire threat west of I-35 Sunday afternoon, mainly for any areas that don`t receive rain on Saturday. A cool night is expected Sunday night, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s areawide. Southerly winds will return Sunday night, with breezy southwest winds expected to develop on Monday as another cold front approaches from the north. Wind speeds are expected to be between 10-20 mph, with gusts around 25 to 30 mph. We`ll see some slight downsloping effects in western North and Central Texas, thanks to the subtle westerly wind component. This will result in hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s across western North and Central Texas, with highs in the mid to upper 80s expected across the rest of the area. Breezy winds, hot temperatures, and low afternoon humidity (20-35%) will result in an elevated fire threat west of I-35 Monday afternoon, especially for any areas that miss out on rain this weekend. The cold front is slated to arrive in North and Central Texas Monday night into Tuesday. No rain chances will accompany the front, as moisture will remain scoured from the region behind the weekend cold front. Pleasant post-frontal temperatures are expected on Tuesday, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. A subtle warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures will remain relatively mild. We`ll likely see another cold front late in the week, which may be accompanied by a few showers or storms. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Concerns: MVFR cigs near daybreak tomorrow; thunderstorms tomorrow morning and afternoon at all TAF sites. Southerly winds will persist overnight, ushering in a blanket of MVFR stratus from our S-SW. This will impact the morning push, but will gradually lift throughout the rest of the morning. Out ahead of an incoming Pacific front, winds will veer more southwesterly and isolated showers will begin to develop across portions of the region. The main window of impacts to D10 airport operations will be between 17-22Z, when the storms that develop along and behind the front push through, and have introduced TSRA for greatest impacts between 19-22Z. There is more uncertainty on TSRA impacts as far south as ACT, so have only prevailed SHRA VCTS between 20-23Z at this time. All activity at the airports should come to an end between 22-23Z, with rain-free conditions lingering the rest of the period. Winds will likely return to the southwest for a few hours, but the true cold front will surge south late tomorrow night, quickly transitioning winds out of the north near the end of the extended 30 hour period. Prater && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 83 57 75 56 / 5 60 20 0 0 Waco 71 89 59 78 53 / 5 40 20 0 0 Paris 69 83 53 72 49 / 5 70 30 0 0 Denton 68 83 52 74 51 / 10 60 20 0 0 McKinney 69 83 53 74 51 / 5 70 20 0 0 Dallas 72 85 58 76 56 / 5 60 20 0 0 Terrell 69 84 54 74 51 / 5 60 30 0 0 Corsicana 71 88 58 77 54 / 5 50 30 0 0 Temple 69 89 57 80 51 / 5 30 20 0 0 Mineral Wells 66 86 52 78 51 / 10 60 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$