Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
613 FXUS64 KFWD 051827 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 127 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak cold front will enter North Texas on Tuesday, bringing some slightly cooler temperatures into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. A few light showers may accompany the front`s arrival Tuesday. - Despite the presence of a front Tuesday and Wednesday, daytime highs will remain anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the week. - Apart from a few showers Tuesday, rain chances will be non- existent through next week. Drought conditions will slowly increase across the region, and fire concerns may gradually intensify. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This afternoon through Monday/ Virtually no changes to the sensible weather conditions are expected through Monday, as the region remains dominated by a broad southwesterly upper level flow regime. Low level moisture will remain adequate to produce some scattered cumulus cloudiness both days, with mostly clear skies returning each evening. A weak upper level trough located over the northwest Gulf, embedded in the southwesterly upper flow, will shift northward into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. This system`s movement off to the east of us should aid in backing our surface winds around to an east and northeast direction by Monday afternoon. The extremely slight cold air advection induced by this wind shift will be enough to trim high temperatures over our northeast counties by a few degrees on Monday. Otherwise, status quo for our area, with high temperatures remaining anywhere from 3 to 8 degrees above normal for early October. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Sunday/ The only exciting aspect of the long term forecast is the suspense involved with the arrival of a weak boundary advertised to drop into our northern counties on Tuesday. Some deterministic model solutions continue to suggest veritable rainbows and unicorns (in a relative sense), with temperatures holding in the 70s to lower 80s for most of the day Tuesday (and perhaps Wednesday too). Unfortunately, most of the key ensemble systems - particularly the NBM and ECMWF - discount the vigor of this upcoming boundary, the associated cloud cover and scattered showers, and most importantly, the cooler solutions offered by the deterministic output. Ensemble-based probabilities of temperatures exceeding 85 degrees remain quite high across North Texas Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with even lower 90s a good possibility south of I-20. This is the scenario offered by the NBM in our extended outlook, and one that we have the greatest confidence in occurring. Beyond Wednesday, we will see a significant mid-level ridge building episode evolve, with a stout high parked over the Southern Plains by the weekend. This will ensure a continuation of daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s from Thursday right on through Sunday (and beyond, frankly). Rainfall will be non- existent, owing to an absence of deep layer moisture and forcing mechanisms. The persistence of daytime highs anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal, coupled with the lack of rainfall, will contribute to a steadily increasing wildfire risk as we move into the middle portion of October. This will represent an expansion of the small fires that are already occurring with some frequency across our area. As of now, there is no clear signal (at least through the first 2/3rds of October) for a major weather change which would swing our temperatures and rainfall chances back to those normally expected at this point in the fall. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Monday. Scattered afternoon cumulus cloudiness will rapidly dissipate after sunset with the loss of daytime heating, leaving clear conditions. A virtually identical cycle will occur on Monday. A gentle southeasterly surface wind flow at 5-9 knots, driven by a ridge located to the east of North Texas, will persist through 18z Monday. After 18z Monday, winds at the D10 sites will gradually back to a northeasterly direction at around 6-8 knots, with this pattern continuing through 00z Tuesday. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 70 88 70 89 / 0 5 10 5 10 Waco 89 65 89 69 90 / 0 5 5 5 20 Paris 87 67 85 67 86 / 0 5 10 10 20 Denton 88 64 88 64 87 / 0 5 10 5 10 McKinney 89 66 87 66 87 / 0 5 10 5 10 Dallas 90 70 90 71 89 / 0 0 10 5 10 Terrell 89 65 87 66 88 / 0 5 5 5 20 Corsicana 90 68 89 69 90 / 0 0 5 5 20 Temple 90 65 90 67 89 / 0 0 5 5 20 Mineral Wells 90 63 91 64 89 / 0 0 5 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$