Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
000 FXUS64 KFWD 291827 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures between 97 to 104 with little to no rain are expected this weekend through next week. - The fire threat will remain elevated through next week due to hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Current RAP analysis places the mid/upper-level ridge over western New Mexico, with the ridge axis continuing to translate east toward the Southern Plains through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, the center of the ridge should be positioned near Oklahoma, placing North and Central Texas beneath increasingly strong subsidence and reinforcing the hot and predominantly dry pattern. One exception may be across southern and eastern Central Texas this afternoon, where lingering low-level moisture and strong heating should support modest instability along the northwestern edge of the more favorable moisture plume. If a weak convergence axis or subtle moisture discontinuity can develop, an isolated shower may briefly form, though probabilities remain around 10% or less and most locations will remain dry. Otherwise, efficient daytime mixing will again be the main forecast challenge. Observations continue to show afternoon dewpoints mixing lower than the NBM, with drier air entrained into the boundary layer while increasingly dry soils limit evaporative cooling. This favors more efficient, sensible heating and allows the mixed layer to tap into the warmer air aloft, resulting in a forecast that is hotter but less humid than the unmodified blend. Temperatures should reach the lower 100s across much of North Texas, with a few locations in the Metroplex and Big Country approaching 103-104 degrees. Despite the heat, lower afternoon dewpoints will keep apparent temperatures fairly close to the ambient temperature through Sunday, precluding the need for heat headlines this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 The subtropical ridge will remain the dominant influence through next week as its axis gradually shifts east toward the Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Persistent subsidence, a warm tropospheric column, and efficient boundary-layer mixing will maintain above- normal temperatures and predominantly dry weather across North and Central Texas. Confidence in the heat is high, with regional deterministic and ensemble guidance showing little indication of a meaningful pattern change through the first week of September. Southerly flow should gradually improve low-level moisture early next week, which may allow heat indices to begin approaching advisory criteria even if actual temperatures change little. Farther south and east, the eastward migration of the ridge will eventually allow Gulf moisture and weak easterly disturbances to move farther inland, but any associated convection should remain south and southeast of the forecast area for now. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the current TAF period with generally clear skies and south winds around 5 to 10 knots. There is a very low chance for an isolated shower across portions of Central Texas this afternoon, but coverage and proximity to KACT are too limited to warrant any mention in the TAF. Increasing subsidence beneath the eastward-moving upper ridge will maintain dry weather and unrestricted flight conditions through Sunday, with no significant aviation concerns anticipated. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 74 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 77 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 80 102 81 102 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 76 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 75 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12