Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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554
FXUS64 KFWD 132305
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
605 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and rain-free weather will continue through much of this
  week, with a low chance for storms returning on Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 127 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025/
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/

A broad ridge remains the controlling influence across North and
Central Texas, while a weak shortwave lifts across West Texas into
Oklahoma. Subsidence on the southern flank of this disturbance
will keep our area dry today. Expect passing cirrus across parts
of North Texas to continue to erode through the early afternoon.
Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees as
modest southeast winds near 5 to 10 mph prevail.

Lows will fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s tonight with a subtle
backing of surface winds to the east. This stagnant pattern
warrants a persistence forecast for Tuesday: mostly sunny and
dry with highs generally hovering within a degree or two of 90
degrees and light east to southeast winds.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 127 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025/
/Late Tuesday Through Sunday/

High pressure aloft will center overhead midweek, maintaining a
quiet and warm pattern with little day-to-day variability. Expect
afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and morning lows in
the mid 50s and 60s. Late week, a large scale trough moving across
the southern Rockies into the Plains will lead to tightening of
the surface pressure gradient, drawing higher dewpoints back into
North and Central Texas by Friday. This will set us up for
returning low (20-30%) rain chances across North Texas late Friday
and early Saturday, spreading across the remainder of the region
Saturday afternoon and overnight into early Sunday as the
amplifying trough drives a cold front southeastward through the
region.

The better instability will likely be focused from the Ark-La-Tex
into the Lower Mississippi Valley during peak heating on
Saturday. If the current timing of the cold front verifies, local
impacts may be limited to increasing clouds, breezy prefrontal
southerly winds, and low storm chances in advance of the front,
mainly near and east of the I-35 corridor. Ensemble spread on
frontal timing remains on the order of 12 to 24 hours, which will
continue to shift rain coverage with the potential for some areas
to miss out on receiving measurable rainfall altogether. While
this front may not deliver the fall-like cool down that so many of
us where hoping for, this pattern change should be enough to
nudge temperatures towards climate normals late this weekend into
early next week.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Southeasterly winds (150-130) will become more ESE (130-110) by
06Z, and remain nearly easterly through the rest of the forecast
period. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites
for the duration of the forecast period.

Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  88  65  87  63 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                62  88  61  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               62  88  61  86  57 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              62  88  60  86  57 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            63  88  60  86  58 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              67  90  65  88  63 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             62  89  60  87  58 /   0   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           63  90  63  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              60  88  58  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       62  90  59  89  57 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$