Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
024 FXUS64 KFWD 050507 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1207 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few days of near or below normal temperatures can be expected through the middle of the week. - Thunderstorm chances return by the end of the week and continue into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 North to northeast winds behind Saturday`s front will continue for the next 24 hours, with speeds 5-10 mph at night and 10-20 mph during the day. Cool/dry air advection will maintain the seasonably cool weather, with lows both this morning and again Monday morning mainly in the 40s. A weak disturbance moving across South Texas will bring some mid and high clouds over our Central Texas counties during the day, but all locations will be dry and pleasant for Easter. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 The dry post-frontal airmass will keep the seasonably cool weather in place through the midweek period, with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the lower to mid 70s expected through Wednesday. Northwest flow aloft will also be in place, helping to maintain the dry and tranquil weather. A weak shortwave will pass overhead on Tuesday, resulting in little more than mid level clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles. A warming trend will transpire late in the week as return flow increases ahead of a developing upper low off the West Coast. Thursday should see highs approach 80 as a ridge briefly strengthens overhead. The upper low will gradually become centered over southern California, setting up a southwest flow regime late week through next weekend. Mid range guidance indicates that a couple of lead shortwaves will help ignite some dryline convection each afternoon and evening starting Friday as the upper low slowly advances east. The exact location of the dryline, the environment out ahead of it, and the timing of the lead disturbances still remain a bit uncertain this far in advance. However, at this point it looks like the stronger of the lead shortwaves will pass overhead late Saturday, with the low itself ejecting northeast through the Southern Plains late next Sunday or the following Monday. The official forecast will hence indicate decent POPs staring late Friday, with the best rain/storm chances late Saturday through the first part of next week. Details regarding timing, coverage, and potential severity will be ironed out later in the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Northeast winds of 5 to 10 kt will increase to 10-20 kt by midday Sunday after several good hours of boundary layer mixing. Decoupling will drop winds back to 5-10 kt Sunday evening. Otherwise, VFR with occasional mid and high clouds can be expected through the duration of the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 49 70 50 / 100 0 0 0 Waco 71 48 68 47 / 100 0 0 0 Paris 68 44 69 44 / 100 0 0 0 Denton 69 44 69 44 / 100 0 0 0 McKinney 70 46 69 46 / 100 0 0 0 Dallas 71 50 71 50 / 100 0 0 0 Terrell 72 47 69 47 / 100 0 0 0 Corsicana 75 49 71 49 / 100 0 0 0 Temple 74 50 69 49 / 100 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 69 44 69 45 / 90 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30