Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
390 FXUS64 KFWD 110642 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1242 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will persist through the rest of the week and into the weekend. - A more widespread round of showers and storms is expected late Friday through Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, particularly across North and East Texas. - A low grass fire threat may emerge west of I-35 this afternoon, before increasing humidity reduces fire weather concerns. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 Light rain showers will continue to taper off from west to east early this morning as the weak cold front exits Central Texas. Most areas received only a few hundredths of an inch of rain at best, with many locations likely ending up with only sprinkles or traces. Behind the front, clearing skies and light north winds will prevail through the day with a cooler but still warmer than normal afternoon expected. Highs will be in the mid 60s across North Texas and the upper 60s to low 70s across Central Texas. No additional rainfall is expected today. Winds will veer back to the east and eventually southeast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a weak lee surface low develops near the Colorado Front Range. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. This shift in the low-level flow will signal the beginning of a warming trend heading into Thursday and will set the stage for increasing moisture return and our next chance for rainfall Friday into the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will persist Thursday into Friday as southerly flow strengthens and 850 mb temperatures climb under the upper ridge building across the Southern Plains. Afternoon highs both days will climb into the 70s to low 80s. Meanwhile, another Pacific trough and the associated closed low will deepen and organize along the West Coast before ejecting eastward into the southern Rockies by Friday night. Rain chances will increase across the region Friday into Saturday as this system approaches. Strengthening low-level moisture advection will support widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. QPF totals through Saturday remain on track with generally 1 to 2 inches possible across much of the region. While the thermodynamic environment remains modest, guidance is continuing to hint at MUCAPE values sufficient for isolated stronger storms, especially across Central Texas. By late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, most precipitation should be exiting to the east as the surface front finally pushes through the region. Sunday and Monday will feature a return to drier and warmer conditions as upper ridging builds back overhead. Looking ahead to midweek, ensemble guidance continues to advertise a renewed trough taking shape along the West Coast. While timing and evolution details differ, the pattern suggests another potential round of active weather beyond Day 7. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with skies clearing in the wake of the departing light showers. North-northwest winds around 8-10 kts will persist through the day Wednesday before becoming light and variable overnight as surface high pressure passes overhead. Winds will begin to veer to the east and eventually southeast later Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, but speeds should remain light (below 6 kts) through the end of the TAF cycle. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 47 76 56 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 70 49 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 67 44 70 51 / 0 0 0 10 Denton 66 41 75 51 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 67 45 74 53 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 68 48 76 58 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 68 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 71 49 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 72 47 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 68 42 79 52 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12