Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
462 FXUS64 KFWD 051908 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 108 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will move through North and Central Texas this evening and tonight, bringing breezy north winds and noticeably cooler temperature for Friday. - Scattered rain showers (30-50%) are expected Saturday evening into Sunday morning across portions of Central Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1253 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 The shortwave responsible for our next cold front is currently moving across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, with an associated surface low analyzed roughly between Wichita Falls and Childress. The front will continue its southeastward trek this afternoon and evening, reaching our western North Texas counties over the next few hours, the I-35 corridor/Metroplex this evening (7-10 PM), and finally exiting our eastern Central Texas/Brazos Valley counties after midnight. Ahead of the front, southerly winds and partly sunny skies will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon. Despite the respectable dynamics accompanying this system, rainfall will be hard to come by across most of North and Central Texas. The 12Z FWD sounding sampled a pronounced dry layer through much of the mid-levels, and this dry air remains the primary limiting factor for precipitation. Oklahoma is better positioned near the mid-level vort max/cold core and stronger ascent, while North Texas will remain along the southern fringe of the forcing. As deeper ascent approaches this evening, much of it will initially go toward moistening the dry column rather than efficiently producing precipitation. Still, increasing cloud cover and sufficient saturation may eventually squeeze out a few showers, mainly across North Texas where proximity to the stronger forcing is greatest. Most locations will receive little, if any, measurable rainfall. Northerly winds will follow the front tonight with cold advection continuing into Friday. Some residual postfrontal cloud cover is likely Friday morning as shallow low-level moisture lingers beneath considerably drier air aloft, but clouds should gradually thin as drier air filters southward. Despite the rather modest magnitude of the postfrontal airmass, persistent northerly flow, cold advection, and lingering cloud cover will make for a noticeably cooler Friday. Highs should struggle to get out of the upper 60s and lower/middle 70s, though temperatures could underperform by a few degrees where cloud cover proves more stubborn. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1253 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Friday night will be cool and quiet before attention turns to the next upper-level disturbance digging southward through the western CONUS. Unlike today`s more progressive system, this trough will take an unusually southern trajectory into northern Mexico over the weekend. Surface high pressure and residual continental flow will maintain a cool and stable boundary layer across North and Central Texas while increasing southwesterly flow aloft transports Pacific moisture across the region. Moisture will gradually deepen on Saturday as the Pacific plume is joined by returning Gulf moisture above the cool surface layer. Increasing warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent should allow light showers to begin developing across Central Texas during the day, with coverage expanding Saturday afternoon and evening as stronger large-scale ascent approaches. Rain chances will favor areas south of I-20, particularly Central Texas, where the deeper moisture will better overlap the northern periphery of the stronger forcing associated with the approaching trough. Farther north, both moisture depth and ascent will decrease, resulting in considerably lower rain chances across North Texas. The greatest coverage of rain is expected Saturday evening into early Sunday as increasing PVA and broad ascent overlap the increasingly saturated column. This will primarily be a stratiform/showery precipitation regime rather than a convective one, with little instability available above the cool and stable boundary layer. Rainfall amounts should generally remain modest, although Central Texas will have the best opportunity for measurable and potentially wetting rainfall. Persistent clouds, northerly surface winds, and periods of rain will also keep Saturday on the cooler side, with highs largely in the 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures could struggle even more where precipitation develops earlier or becomes more persistent than currently anticipated. By Sunday, the upper trough is expected to become increasingly cut off from the stronger flow while lingering across northern Mexico and the southern Plains. As this occurs, forcing will become weaker and less organized, allowing rain coverage to gradually diminish. A few showers may nevertheless linger across Central Texas into Sunday and perhaps Sunday night as smaller- scale disturbances rotate around the upper low. North Texas should remain largely dry. Considerable cloud cover and weak northerly flow will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal through the end of the weekend. There remains some uncertainty regarding the eventual position and evolution of the cutoff low. A modest northward shift would bring deeper moisture and greater rain coverage farther into North Texas, while a farther south solution would keep most of the weekend rainfall confined to Central and South Texas. Either way, the overall pattern favors Central Texas for the highest rain chances through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 VFR will prevail through the current TAF period, with the primary aviation concern being a cold front and associated wind shift tonight. South winds around 10 kts will continue through this afternoon ahead of the approaching front. The boundary has slowed somewhat compared to earlier expectations and should move through the western Metroplex terminals (AFW/FTW) around 02Z, followed by GKY/DFW around 03Z and DAL closer to 04Z. Winds will quickly become northerly near 10-13 kts following FROPA. A few showers may accompany the front across North Texas, but coverage is expected to remain too sparse to warrant a mention at the Metroplex terminals. VFR ceilings should prevail despite an increase in postfrontal cloud cover overnight. At Waco, the wind shift should arrive around 03-04Z with winds initially becoming northwesterly. Stronger northerly flow will develop toward 07Z with sustained speeds near 10 kts and occasional gusts around 20 kts continuing into Friday morning. VFR conditions and northerly winds will prevail Friday with any lingering postfrontal cloud cover gradually scattering. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1244 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 71 52 69 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 55 73 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 54 72 46 69 / 20 0 0 0 Denton 50 70 44 68 / 20 0 0 0 McKinney 53 70 46 68 / 20 0 0 0 Dallas 57 72 52 70 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 55 73 49 70 / 20 0 0 0 Corsicana 57 72 54 69 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 55 73 54 70 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 51 69 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12