Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
757 FXUS64 KFWD 130033 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 733 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas through 8 PM Sunday. - A stray shower or storm (10-20% chance) may move into Lamar and Fannin Counties through 10 pm this evening. - Near-record high temperatures will continue into the upcoming work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 726 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Thunderstorms forming along an outflow boundary in southern Oklahoma are slowly moving toward Fannin and Lamar Counties, but radar and satellite trends indicate these storms are weakening as the sun sets and as they approach a less favorable thermodynamic environment. A few locations, particularly in northern Lamar County, may see light rain, but widespread precip is not expected. Today`s heat was brutal by September standards, and tomorrow unfortunately looks to be cut from a similar cloth. Large-scale subsidence from the ridge overhead and similar moisture to today should keep us hot and humid, pushing heat index values or temperatures over criteria for heat headlines tomorrow across most of North and Central TX. As a result, we have extended the Heat Advisory through tomorrow evening for the same areas as today. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 As ridging amplifies over the South and Southeast CONUS, high heights building in across the region will result in clear skies and dry conditions for the vast majority of those across North and Central Texas. Temperatures will remain at near record warm levels for this time of year with triple digit highs expected this weekend for much of the region. Despite strong diurnal mixing during the afternoon and evening hours, deep Gulf moisture will remain in place especially along and east of the I-35 corridor with dew points struggling to drop below the upper-60s/lower-70s. This combined with temperatures ranging from 95-103 will result in afternoon heat indices in the 100-108 degree range today. As such, a Heat Advisory has been issued for much of the area today through 8 PM. There may need to be another Heat Advisory for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor tomorrow, but uncertainties in the degree of diurnal mixing precludes an issuance decision at this time. Regardless, heat indices Sunday afternoon and evening will be very hot, likely ranging from 100-104 with isolated pockets (primarily north of I-20 and east of I-35) of 105-106 degree heat indices possible. Given the amount of boundary layer moisture in place and strong diurnal heating expected, a stray shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out (10-15% chance) across portions of Central Texas and for areas North of I-20 and east of I-35. However, strong synoptic scale subsidence and the lack of any surface boundaries in the area may very well prevent the development of any convection across the region this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Strong upper-level ridging and surface high pressure are expected to dominate the region`s weather pattern this upcoming work week. Expect dry conditions and near-record highs (95-103 degrees) each day. Just beyond the current forecast period, some medium-range guidance suggests a cold front may make it as far south as Texas sometime next weekend. We will continue to monitor this signal and discuss it more in future forecasts should subsequent model runs continue to resolve this scenario. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 726 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 VFR conditions will likely prevail at all TAF sites, aside from the low (10-15%) chance for brief MVFR ceilings at KACT tomorrow morning around 11-14Z. Given the low probability of this scenario, we have kept morning stratus out of the 0Z TAF. Expect relatively light S/SE winds around 8-12 KT through the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 81 101 / 0 10 10 0 Waco 77 100 77 100 / 10 10 0 0 Paris 76 100 76 100 / 20 10 10 0 Denton 78 100 78 101 / 0 10 0 0 McKinney 77 99 77 101 / 10 10 10 0 Dallas 81 102 81 101 / 0 10 10 0 Terrell 77 100 77 101 / 10 10 10 0 Corsicana 77 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 0 Temple 76 100 75 99 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Fenske