Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
758 FXUS64 KFWD 060003 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 703 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will bring isolated showers and storms to North TX this evening, and to Central TX on Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms are possible near and east of Interstate 35. - A cooler and mostly dry end to the workweek is forecast with temperatures near or below normal on Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 The primary concern in the short term still surrounds the location, timing and extend of convective initiation late this afternoon and evening along the southward moving cold front. The cirrus shield over North Central Texas is fairly thick, and this has put a dent in the solar insolation we might otherwise have expected today. Temperatures immediately ahead of the front (where downslope southwest to west winds are present), should still climb well up into the 80s to around 90 by mid/late afternoon. Recent ACARS soundings, however, still show a considerable cap over the greater DFW area, and the slight decrease in the max heating may curb the potential for initiation somewhat. All that said, the cold front is still expected to penetrate the I-20/I-30 corridors by late afternoon, and convergence along this boundary should be sufficient to trigger a narrow axis of convection - particular from the eastern half of the Metroplex, northeastward toward the Paris/Sulphur Springs areas by 7-8 pm. In general, maintained the 20-35% PoP coverage for this evening, mainly over the east central zones. Most of this activity should dissipate after sunset and the loss of heating. More limited precipitation coverage is expected farther south along the boundary later this evening and overnight. Fairly respectable MUCAPEs are anticipated along and east of I-35 by late afternoon, and a few of the storms are still capable of producing large hail and isolated damaging winds. Some discrepancies still exist among the models in terms of how far south - and how quickly - the front will penetrate into the Central Texas counties overnight and Wednesday morning. By and large, the boundary will likely slow up and remain somewhere near a Killeen to Palestine line by midday tomorrow. A broad region of convergence along and just behind this boundary should provide sufficient forcing for at least scattered convection across the far eastern and southern counties of our forecast area from late morning through the afternoon. Behind the front, cold air advection and ample cloud cover should foster much cooler conditions across North Texas Wednesday, with most areas remaining in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 A large longwave upper trough will remain over Ontario and the Great Lakes through the weekend. North Texas will remain near the southwest base of this trough, then transition to a more northwesterly flow regime by early next week as the trough shifts into Quebec and the U.S. Northeast. Temperatures Thursday will remain unseasonably cool, as a Canadian airmass over the Central U.S. pumps cool, dry air southward into our region. A substantial warm up will proceed from Friday into early next week, as surface winds return to the south, and upper level subsidence commences with the arrival of a more northwesterly upper level flow regime. Guidance is relatively uneven regarding the potential for precipitation during the Thursday through Monday timeframe. Moisture and upper level lift looks sufficient to warrant at least low PoPs across our eastern and southern zones through the end of the week. A more substantial shot of lift appears to be impinging on our area by Sunday/Sunday night, offering the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms areawide into Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 An isolated storm has developed southeast of KDAL in the last 20 minutes, and will continue moving away from the airport over the next hour. Have maintained VCTS through 01Z to account for the nearby lightning as it moves ENE at 30 mph. Storm chances have diminished over the other D10 TAF sites this evening as the front progresses through, with all mention of VCTS removed with the 00Z issuance. N/NW winds of 8-13 kts are occurring behind the front with occasional gusts to around 20 kts. The biggest concern is the return of MVFR to the region, arriving at KACT around 05Z with a period of IFR cigs likely in the early morning around 10Z. For D10 sites, MVFR cigs are likely to arrive around 09-10Z with intermittent low-end MVFR just before daybreak through mid morning. Ceilings should clear late morning/midday for D10 and linger into the afternoon for Waco. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 76 55 72 / 30 20 10 20 Waco 67 79 59 71 / 20 30 10 30 Paris 57 71 53 71 / 40 30 10 10 Denton 54 73 51 72 / 20 10 0 10 McKinney 58 73 53 72 / 30 20 10 10 Dallas 61 78 57 74 / 30 20 10 20 Terrell 61 76 54 71 / 40 40 10 20 Corsicana 67 81 59 73 / 20 50 20 30 Temple 68 84 58 71 / 20 30 10 30 Mineral Wells 55 77 50 72 / 10 10 0 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Gordon