Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
993 FXUS64 KFWD 101039 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions will continue today with heat index values up to 105 degrees. - Rain and storm chances return to the region late Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Another seasonably hot and breezy day is in store today with highs of 95-100 and heat index values up to 105. Expect southerly winds of 10-20 mph with some daytime gusts exceeding 25 mph before speeds decline in the evening. A modest low-level southerly fetch may allow for isolated seabreeze convection to encroach on our southeastern zones this afternoon, although these chances are too low to include a mention of thunderstorms in the public forecast at this time. While the upper ridge is presently quite diffuse, it will amplify and strengthen to our west/northwest heading into the weekend. This pattern shift will open the door for a trough axis to sag southward into the Central/Southern Plains on the ridge`s southeast periphery, resulting in increasingly unsettled weather later in the weekend. This weakness aloft should allow for a greater potential for convective activity mainly across Central Texas on Saturday afternoon, perhaps also aided by outflows from inland-advancing seabreeze convection. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A period of unsettled weather is expected from late Saturday into next week. This will be due to an amplified upper ridge to our northwest, while mid-level troughing and an easterly wave slowly traverse the Southern Plains over the course of a few days. The result will be disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity each day, which will not necessarily be diurnally driven due to the added source of dynamic ascent present from the easterly wave/low. Shear will be quite weak in the presence of this feature, while seasonably moderate/high instability exists along with above normal (90th+ percentile) PW values. This will likely result in isolated flooding problems being the primary forecast highlight, with secondary wind/hail threats accompanying any stronger thunderstorms through the extended forecast period. A flooding threat could also be accentuated due to slow storm motions, with very weak flow through the column during this time period. Convective mode should largely consist of a combination of multicellular clusters along with a few more structured linear segments. Peak thunderstorm chances will be Sunday through Tuesday when the upper trough/low will have its maximum influence locally, before convective chances wind down beyond midweek. The presence of daytime precipitation/outflows along with extra cloud cover will aid in keeping temperatures near or below normal for these few days, with highs in the lower 90s or perhaps even only upper 80s depending on the amount of convection that does end up occurring. An east/southeast expansion of the upper ridge by Thursday/Friday will send temperatures back to the upper 90s to around 100 with a return to seasonably hot and dry weather. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with breezy south winds. Expect some daytime gusts around 25 kts before wind speeds decline this evening. All convective activity is expected to remain south of the airports today. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 99 80 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 96 77 95 78 / 0 0 20 20 Paris 97 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 30 Denton 100 77 98 79 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 100 79 98 79 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 100 81 99 80 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 99 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 98 77 96 79 / 0 0 20 20 Temple 95 75 94 77 / 0 0 20 20 Mineral Wells 98 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley