Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
182 FXUS64 KFWD 282328 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 528 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have returned and will linger through early Sunday. A few strong storms with hail are also possible over Central Texas Saturday afternoon. - A strong cold front will move through North Central Texas late Saturday into early Sunday. In its wake, the coldest temperatures of the season will arrive and persist through Tuesday. Wind chills on Sunday morning will drop into the mid teens to mid 20s. - Some light rain will return Monday into Monday night. The potential for any light sleet or freezing rain is now minimal over the northern counties Monday morning. No impacts are expected, though a brief window may exist near the Red River, when a low probability of precipitation coincides with temperatures in the lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 The temperatures being experienced across North and Central Texas today through Saturday will be the mildest we see for the next several days. Our strong cold front and significant cool off is still on track to commence late tomorrow afternoon. A fast, low-amplitude mid-level disturbance will exit the Central Rockies later tonight. Already, forcing for ascent well ahead of this feature is resulting in the development of a few high based showers over western North Texas. The lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere, however, are quite dry, and this is inhibiting any rain from reaching the surface. By late afternoon, and continuing through the overnight hours, coverage and intensity of this precipitation will pick up, and we`ll start to see light rain accumulations across most of the area after midnight. Some meager (~400-500 Jkg-1) amounts of elevated CAPE will likely exist in the 06z-12z time period, and it`s not out of the question some isolated elevated thunderstorms may also form after midnight. Any strong or certainly marginally severe storms would be quite a stretch, however, given the limited instability, and thus am not concerned about any hazards other than lightning overnight tonight. The shield of precipitation should shift into eastern North Texas during the morning hours Saturday, as the upper level disturbance pushes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Subsidence on the backside of the disturbance will foster some breaks in the cloud cover by afternoon, allowing the sun to peek through at times. A fair amount of lingering moisture will exist over the region, however, and this may yield some continued sprinkles along and east of I-35 during the afternoon. The long advertised cold front will sweep southward across the Red River by early afternoon Saturday, driving through the Metroplex toward sunset, and clearing the entire forecast area late Saturday evening. Strong gusty north winds behind the front will usher in much colder air, with temperatures sliding out of the 60s and through the 50s across the northern counties by late afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 The aforementioned cold front will plunge southward through the forecast area during the evening hours, with a modified polar airmass surging rapidly into the region in its wake. With gusty north winds, wind chill values will drop through the 30s into the 20s areawide through the overnight hours. Lows in the northernmost counties will dip into the upper 20s by daybreak Sunday, with 30s elsewhere. Short range model solutions suggest enough lift may accompany this front to facilitate a narrow axis of convection along and just ahead of this boundary as it pushes through the I-20 corridor around sunset Saturday. The NBM and associated ensembles advertise some fairly healthy PoPS across our east central and southeast counties by Saturday evening. Not entirely sold on this coverage, but chose to follow it for this package. Assuming this activity materializes, we`ll see a combination of showers and thunderstorms across this region. Enough deep layer CAPE appears to exist to create a potential for some marginally severe thunderstorms over our southeast zones by early evening. Hail would be the primary threat if this activity does develop. With the polar airmass in place, Sunday will be quite chilly by late November standards. Highs regionwide in the 40s will represent values that are as much as 15-20 degrees below normal. Sunny skies will materialize mainly north of I-20, though clouds may hang tough most of the day across the Central Texas zones. A persistent north wind will add an edge for those outside. A cloudy, cold day will usher in the first day of December. Highs on Monday will once again struggle to reach the 40s by afternoon. Another trough will amplify over the Western U.S. late Sunday night, and shoot eastward through the Plains states by Monday. The forcing for ascent associated with this feature will interact with the shallow layer of moisture overriding the cold airmass near the surface, promoting another round of light rain across much of the area Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage will not be overly widespread or heavy, and confidence is high that this precipitation will exit the region prior to the time when surface temperatures dip toward the freezing mark. At this time, no winter impacts are expected across North Texas with this system. The rest of the week will feature slowly moderating temperatures, though daytime values will remain below normal for early December all the way through Thursday. Another storm system will approach the region from the southwest toward the end of the week, resulting in a renewed chance of rain Thursday, mainly across our Central Texas counties. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 504 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Isolated showers and storms are increasing in coverage west of D10 as of 23z in response to incoming ascent and deepening moisture. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the D10 airports mainly from 02-06z this evening, with perhaps some very intermittent light rain continuing overnight into early Saturday morning. Cigs will progressively lower from VFR to MVFR overnight, and may even dip to IFR after ~14z Saturday morning before lifting/scattering later in the afternoon. A strong cold front will sweep through Metroplex airports around 22z tomorrow, and this boundary may be accompanied by a thin band of convection. A brief VCTS will be advertised to account for very short-lived thunderstorm impacts along this boundary, which will be immediately followed by an abrupt NW wind shift with gusts near or exceeding 30 kts after 00z. The frontal passage will not occur at Waco until just beyond the valid TAF period, but similar cig trends can be expected there during the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 51 69 32 45 / 80 60 20 0 Waco 53 73 36 46 / 70 60 30 0 Paris 45 61 29 44 / 80 80 30 0 Denton 48 69 27 44 / 70 50 10 0 McKinney 48 66 30 45 / 80 70 20 0 Dallas 50 70 33 45 / 80 60 20 0 Terrell 48 67 32 45 / 80 70 40 0 Corsicana 53 70 36 47 / 70 70 50 0 Temple 55 74 36 47 / 60 50 30 0 Mineral Wells 50 75 29 48 / 70 30 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Stalley