Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
718 FXUS64 KFWD 091039 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather is expected through the upcoming weekend, with cool nights and warm afternoons. - Low rain chances will return to parts of the region by the middle of next week. - A cold front will likely bring cooler temperatures to the region next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Quiet weather will continue through Saturday with a dry atmospheric column and broad ridging aloft maintaining mostly clear skies and rain-free conditions. Light east to northeast winds will persist despite temperatures remaining several degrees above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s both today and Saturday. The dry airmass, clear skies, and light winds will also favor efficient radiational cooling both this morning and again Saturday morning. Lows will generally fall into the upper 50s and 60s, with the coolest readings in rural and low-lying areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Warm and dry weather will continue through the remainder of the weekend as the large-scale pattern begins to evolve. As troughing digs across the western CONUS, downstream ridging will initially amplify over the Southern Plains rather than immediately weaken. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will shift farther east while lee troughing strengthens across the High Plains, allowing southerly flow to become established early in the period. Increasing southerly winds and low-level warm advection will support subtle warming through early next week, with highs generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s Sunday and Monday before more locations reach the lower to mid 90s Tuesday. Increasing boundary layer moisture and stronger overnight winds will have a more noticeable impact on nighttime temperatures, with lows climbing into the lower to mid 70s Monday night and beyond. The western trough will become increasingly influential by Tuesday and Wednesday as it digs into the Desert Southwest and begins to displace the ridge eastward. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft should eventually draw a plume of deeper subtropical moisture northeastward from Mexico and the eastern Pacific while persistent southerly flow continues to replenish Gulf moisture in the lower levels. Despite the increasing moisture, strong subsidence and capping beneath the ridge should keep North and Central Texas dry through at least Tuesday. Rain chances will begin to return during the middle of next week as the western trough approaches and the ridge gradually weakens. The first opportunities for showers and thunderstorms should favor western North Texas Wednesday, where increasing large-scale ascent will begin interacting with the western edge of the returning moisture plume. Rain chances will continue into Thursday and will gradually expand farther east. There remains uncertainty regarding how quickly the western trough progresses and, consequently, how quickly appreciable forcing can overcome the lingering influence of the ridge. Overall, the likelihood that there will be a transition toward a more unsettled pattern during the latter half of next week is continuing to increase. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 VFR conditions and light east to northeast winds generally at or below below 5 kts will prevail through the TAF period for all North and Central Texas terminals. Winds will likely go near-calm and variable after sunset this evening. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 92 62 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 91 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 91 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 91 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 93 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 91 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 90 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 91 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 90 60 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12