Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
337 FXUS64 KFWD 072338 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and mostly rain-free weather will return for most of the upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees each afternoon. - Isolated showers and storms will be possible Monday and Tuesday afternoon, mainly for the far southern reaches of our forecast area. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 This afternoon a few lingering showers and thunderstorms are located around and north of the Metroplex. These should diminish by this evening and rain chances should continue to decrease. The upper level low will lift northeastward towards the Mississippi Valley. Another mild and humid night is expected with mostly cloudy skies and southerly winds. Some patchy fog could develop in low-lying areas where heavy rain occurred and winds are lighter. The upper-level trough axis should exit the region and into the Midwest by Monday morning. In its wake, a subtropical ridge will build in across Texas with 500mb heights up to 590dam, and 850mb temperatures of 17-20 deg C. Morning cloud cover should burn off and give way to sunny skies with high temperatures reaching the low 90s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s could also result in heat indices between 100 and 103 degrees, especially across the Metroplex. Late in the afternoon, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop for parts of central Texas along an inland sea-breeze front. Storms should be brief and severe weather is not expected and although a few storms could produce brief gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 The subtropical ridge will settle in across Texas and the western Gulf Coast and persist into Thursday. Rain chances will dry up during this time, but the tradeoff is much sunnier and hotter conditions are anticipated. Model consensus shows 500mb heights of 590dam centered over east Texas with 850mb temperatures of 18-20 deg C each day. There is a low to medium (20 to 60%) chance for surface high temperatures in the mid 90s. In addition, the humidity levels will still be rather high for much of the upcoming week with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This would lead to heat indices between 100-105 each afternoon. Towards the end of the week, some large-scale troughing will build in across the north-central US and weaken the 500mb ridge. Models hint at a cold front approaching north Texas by Friday, but confidence on this is low. For now, some low (<20%) chances of rain were included for northern counties for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 VFR and gusty south flow should prevail through the evening at all terminals. We opted to not include gusts in the prevailing line of the TAFs since gust spreads should generally remain AOB 10 kts. MVFR ceilings should engulf the entire region tonight. While lower ceilings will generally move from S to N, we`re not expecting a sheet of stratus to move north through the night. Instead, the moisture supporting the existing shallow cumulus should stratify into a lowering sheet of stratus, eventually bottoming out between 1,000 and 2,000 ft AGL. There is a 20-30% chance of IFR ceilings late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Ceilings should lift and scatter with the typical diurnal trends, allowing VFR to prevail at all terminals by mid-afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop near the coast early in the day that spread northward along an enhanced seabreeze front. These will make a run at the ACT terminal in the afternoon, but we are not confident enough to include VCTS or even PROB30 at this time. However, this will need to be monitored for future TAFs. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 92 75 92 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 74 89 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 73 89 75 90 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 75 91 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 75 90 76 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 75 93 76 93 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 73 91 74 92 / 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 75 92 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 75 90 74 91 / 0 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kearney LONG TERM....Kearney AVIATION...Bonnette