Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
645 FXUS64 KFWD 031137 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 537 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled weather pattern will bring daily rain chances Tuesday night through this weekend. - Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of North and Central Texas near a cold front. - After a relative lull in precipitation coverage Thursday, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will bring a severe weather and flash flooding threat to much of North and Central Texas Friday into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1218 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 South winds have returned to North and Central Texas tonight and will increase into Tuesday as surface troughing shifts toward the Texas Panhandle. Low clouds will overspread much of the region by early Tuesday morning, clearing out by midday. Southerly flow at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph at times will continue to draw greater quality moisture into North and Central Texas during the day Tuesday setting the stage for unsettled weather the rest of the week. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s across much of the area Tuesday with a few locations across East Texas struggling to get out of the 70s where low-level cloud cover lingers into the early afternoon. By Tuesday evening, a cold front will be shifting into southern Oklahoma and slowly making progress south of the Red River Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible near the Red River Valley during this timeframe. The cold front will likely stall near the I-35 and I-20W corridors by mid-afternoon Wednesday. A capping inversion centered near 800mb will keep any more robust convection from developing in the vicinity of the front until after 2-3PM Wednesday afternoon, but isolated to scattered warm- advection showers beneath the cap will be possible earlier in the day ahead of the boundary. By mid-afternoon, scattered deep convection is expected to develop along and ahead of the front in a plume of 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will not be overtly impressive on Wednesday with effective bulk shear of only 15-25 kts expected to overlap the threat area the latter half of Wednesday. This would promote primarily multicell clusters of storms capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts beneath the strongest cores. The front will retreat back to the north late Wednesday evening as southerly flow quickly re-establishes across the region. The overall severe threat will diminish across much of the area by 10-11PM Wednesday night, with perhaps some weakening storm/shower activity lingering north of I-20 after midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through the Weekend) Issued at 1218 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Favorable southwesterly flow aloft and a moist airmass overhead will keep rain chances in the forecast through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend across North and Central Texas. A relative lull in precipitation coverage is expected Thursday into Thursday night with most of the thunderstorm activity remaining tied to a dryline located well west of our forecast area. However, with well-above PWAT values overhead and subtle shortwaves in the flow aloft, we will opt to keep some 30-50% PoPs in the forecast areawide Thursday into Thursday night. The severe weather threat on Thursday is near-zero for much of the area, minus a very low end threat for hail and damaging wind gusts if the West Texas activity makes a run for our Big Country counties west of Highway 281 late Thursday evening into Thursday night. The severe weather threat looks to increase Friday and Saturday across North and Central Texas as favorable southwesterly flow aloft strengthens and important surface features shift into the region to provide additional sources of lift. Medium-range guidance is in decent agreement that a large spatial area of moderate instability will develop ahead of a dryline expected to settle west of I-35 Friday. Scattered convection is likely to develop in this unstable airmass Friday afternoon into Friday evening, with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear supporting the potential for organized thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a couple tornadoes. Additional rounds of thunderstorms are likely Saturday into Sunday as a cold front slides south into North Texas. Severe weather will remain possible into the weekend, however the primary focus will turn towards the potential for flash flooding and river flooding. An anomalously moist airmass is expected to settle over the state of Texas this weekend with the aforementioned cold front expected to stall somewhere in North and Central Texas. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms and training thunderstorms will promote a heavy rain/flash flood threat over the weekend, so make sure to monitor the forecast as we start to nail down the locations where higher rainfall totals may lead to excessive runoff. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 MVFR cigs at 1500-2500 ft have now overspread much of North and Central Texas and are impacting all FWD TAF sites. Low stratus will remain overhead through the morning, lifting and scattering out by 17Z-18Z. South winds at 10-15 kts with occasional gusts up to 25 kts will prevail through much of today with the gusts diminishing after sunset this evening. Low stratus will return areawide once again Tuesday night after 07Z-08Z. Looking ahead, a cold front will sag south of the Red River northwest of the Metroplex after sunrise Wednesday morning. Isolated showers will be possible ahead of this boundary, but confidence in coverage is not high enough for VCSH mentions in the Metroplex TAFs at this moment. Greater shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected just after the DFW extended TAF period Wednesday afternoon and evening with potential TSRA impacts at the terminals. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 66 76 64 / 0 20 70 70 Waco 85 66 79 65 / 0 10 70 40 Paris 79 63 77 63 / 10 20 70 80 Denton 82 63 75 59 / 0 20 80 70 McKinney 81 65 76 63 / 0 20 70 80 Dallas 83 67 78 65 / 0 20 70 70 Terrell 82 65 79 64 / 0 20 60 60 Corsicana 84 67 82 66 / 10 10 60 40 Temple 85 65 81 64 / 0 10 70 40 Mineral Wells 86 62 72 59 / 0 20 80 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Langfeld LONG TERM....Langfeld AVIATION...Langfeld