Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
026 FXUS64 KFWD 070453 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated (10-30% chance) showers and storms will be possible each afternoon Monday-Wednesday across portions of Central and East Texas. - A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North Texas through 8 PM Monday for heat indices up to 107 degrees. - Temperatures will remain 7-10 degrees above normal into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 As ridging continues to build across the southern and southeastern CONUS, above normal temperatures ranging from 95-103 and dry conditions are expected across North and Central Texas. Despite strong diurnal mixing, boundary layer moisture in the afternoon combined with Tuesday`s high temperatures will result in peak heat indices ranging from 102-107 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North-Central and Northeast Texas where 105+ heat indices will be more widespread. Isolated pockets of 105-107 heat indices will be possible along the I-35 corridor south of DFW and in the Brazos Valley, but coverage remains too isolated and confidence too low to issue a Heat Advisory in this area considering the current guidance. A subtle surface boundary in Northeast Texas will bring weak low- level convergence throughout the day Tuesday. This in combination with strong diurnal heating should be sufficient for a few isolated (10-25% chance) showers and thunderstorms to develop northeast of a line from Athens to Sherman. Isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20% chance) will again be possible along and south of the US-84 corridor in Central Texas where weaker heights and more robust low-level moisture resides. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ...Tuesday and Wednesday... Strong ridging will remain in place from the Southern Great Plains into the Southeast the middle of the upcoming work week. This ridge will remain anomalously strong for this time of year with the 500 hPa heights ranging from 594-597 dm. This pattern will continue to promote strong surface high pressure and synoptic scale subsidence reinforcing widespread sun, dryness, and hot temperatures. Daily highs both Tuesday and Wednesday across North and Central Texas will range from the mid-90s (mostly confined to the Brazos Valley) to the 100-104 range (primarily in the Big Country). Triple digit heat is expected to continue in the DFW Metroplex and in Waco as well. A subtle tropical wave manifesting as a weak mid-level inverted trough will slowly approach East Texas during the day on Tuesday. Marginal forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will be sufficient to support very isolated (10-20% chance) showers and thunderstorms east of the US-75/I-45 corridor during the afternoon and evening hours. If these storms are able to develop earlier in the afternoon, this may result in high temperatures being a few degrees cooler than forecast. A similar set-up will bring the low potential (10-20%) for a couple showers or thunderstorms in the Brazos Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Thursday into Next Weekend... The ridge currently over the region is expected to de-amplify and give way to more zonal upper-level flow by the end of this work week as several troughs traverse the northern CONUS. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs ranging 95-103 degrees each day through the end of the forecast period. However, there is a weak signal in medium-range guidance for a weak cold front to approach the area and stall out just north of the Red River. Confidence remains low in timing, but should the front make it as far south as the Red River, the week may end with isolated showers and thunderstorms across North Texas. Due to uncertainty at this point will refrain from any further discussion, but please check back with the forecast throughout the week as confidence increases in the expected weather for later this week and next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Very patchy fog (1-2SM) will be possible in the Brazos Valley between 10Z and 14Z remaining well east of KACT. Isolated SHRA and TSRA will be possible across Central Texas (including KACT) and Northeast Texas (northeast of D10) between 15Z and 03Z. Coverage remains too low to include in TAFs at this time; however, KACT may be amended later today if convective trends suggest a greater threat to the terminal area. Lastly, winds at all TAF sites will be very weak (<5 knots) and generally out of the south through 15Z, then strengthening to 7-12 knots out of the southeast (120-160) 15Z through the end of this TAF forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 101 81 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 97 77 98 77 / 20 0 0 0 Paris 100 76 99 76 / 10 20 10 10 Denton 100 77 101 78 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 100 77 100 77 / 10 0 10 0 Dallas 100 81 101 81 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 99 76 100 77 / 10 0 10 0 Corsicana 97 76 98 77 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 95 75 95 76 / 30 10 10 0 Mineral Wells 100 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-102>107- 118>123-133>135-146. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah