Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
601 FXUS64 KFWD 172348 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 648 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this evening. Lightning and hail would be the main concerns with any more robust storm. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are again possible Monday afternoon and evening. Any storm that develops may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. - More widespread showers and storms expected Tuesday and Wednesday with the arrival of a cold front. Heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms are possible each day. - The weather pattern will remain unsettled late week and into the weekend with daily chances for showers and storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The start of the forecast period will remain warm, breezy, and mostly dry across North and Central Texas as a western CONUS trough deepens and broad southwest flow becomes established overhead. Lee-side pressure falls to our west will maintain a steady southerly fetch through the afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s while richer Gulf moisture continues to spread northward. A subtle disturbance embedded within the southwest flow may provide just enough ascent for a few storms to attempt development late this afternoon and evening, with the most likely corridor generally along and east of I-35 where low-level moisture convergence may become locally enhanced. The special 18Z sounding from FWD confirms a stout cap remains in place, which should suppress most convective attempts and keep any isolated storm that does manage to develop elevated rather than surface-based. Steep lapse rates support a hail threat with any storm that develops, while the damaging wind threat would be lower given the limited surface- based instability. Any activity should diminish later this evening as the boundary layer cools and inhibition strengthens. Monday will bring a more meaningful, although still conditional, severe-weather setup as a stronger shortwave ejects into the Plains and pulls the dryline farther east toward the Big Country. Large-scale ascent will increase through the afternoon while the warm sector remains characterized by warm, humid, and unstable conditions across much of North and Central Texas. The cap will continue to play a major role in storm coverage, with the best initiation potential focused near and east of the dryline across western North Texas before any storms move east toward the I-35 corridor late in the day. Coverage may remain isolated to widely scattered, but any sustained storm would likely become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. A storm or two lingering into the evening would also encounter a strengthening low-level jet, which may support a localized increase in low-level rotation, especially across North Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The long term period begins within an increasingly amplified pattern, with a deep western CONUS trough and downstream ridging along the eastern CONUS placing North and Central Texas beneath persistent southwest flow aloft. This pattern will support a transition from the conditional, isolated severe potential that has dominated the short term forecast period to a more persistent rain and thunderstorm regime through mid to late week. The main forecast challenge will be identifying which features provide the strongest focus for storms each day, as the pattern transitions from a dryline/shortwave-driven severe weather pattern late Monday to a frontal and eventually surface boundary-driven rain and storm regime later in the week. Any storms that develop late Monday afternoon or evening may continue east into parts of North Texas Monday night before gradually weakening as they encounter stronger inhibition and less favorable instability with eastward extent. Storms may still be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening, particularly if activity remains more discrete or semi- discrete. Later Monday night, convective outflow and the approaching cold front will help determine where the main focus will be for renewed shower and thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The effective boundary on Tuesday may be a blend of the synoptic front and prior storm outflow, which will make the placement and timing of the highest rain and storm chances somewhat dependent on Monday nights convective evolution. By Tuesday, the severe threat should become more focused along the advancing front, supporting a broader corridor of storms across North and Central Texas. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary concerns, while the overall intensity will depend on frontal timing and how much instability can build ahead of the boundary. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a brief lull in precipitation possible where the deeper ascent temporarily shifts away from the region. Rain and storm chances should increase again from midweek into the end of the week as southern-stream troughing lingers to our west and the front slows or stalls near Central Texas. Periodic disturbances embedded in the southwest flow will interact with the boundary and a moist post-frontal/overrunning regime, supporting multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through late week. Antecedent soil moisture remains quite low in many areas, but the threat for runoff and localized flash flooding will increase through the week as the upper soil layer becomes increasingly saturated. Rain chances may linger through the weekend, especially across Central and East Texas, while temperatures remain near to below normal under clouds, periodic rain, and lingering frontal influence. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Elevated southerly winds will prevail the rest of tonight at all TAF sites, though the magnitude of the gusts will gradually decrease over this evening and night. Scattered showers with more isolated thunderstorms are currently making their way SW-NE through the region, and are likely to impact areas near/at all D10 and Central Texas TAF sites for a couple hours, and have introduced VCTS through 02-03Z in response. Exact potential for TSRA on station is still uncertain, but will keep an eye on how the convection evolves. After this activity passes, expect another surge of MVFR stratus to blanket the TAF sites around 07-08Z, and linger through much of this morning before lifting and scattering out closer to noon. Similar to today, expect another period of gusty south winds tomorrow afternoon, with gusts up to around 30 kts expected. Additional afternoon development is possible, but exact coverage and locations are uncertain at this time and have kept tomorrow`s TAF forecast dry for now. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 74 90 74 / 20 20 10 10 Waco 88 75 88 75 / 20 20 10 10 Paris 88 72 87 72 / 20 20 20 20 Denton 88 74 88 74 / 20 20 10 10 McKinney 87 74 89 73 / 20 20 10 10 Dallas 87 75 90 75 / 20 20 10 10 Terrell 87 74 89 73 / 20 20 10 10 Corsicana 88 76 90 76 / 20 20 10 20 Temple 86 77 89 76 / 20 20 10 20 Mineral Wells 85 72 88 72 / 20 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...Prater