Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
884 FXUS64 KFWD 232331 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot temperatures between 102 to 112 will continue through Tuesday. The Extreme Heat Warning for all of North and Central Texas has been extended through Monday, and will likely be needed on Tuesday as well. - A drop in temperatures down into the upper 90s to mid 100s is expected from Wednesday into next weekend as low rain chances return areawide each day. However, most locations will remain hot and dry through the weekend. - Hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that affected parts of North and Central Texas earlier today have dissipated, with just some lingering mid and high level cloudiness seen across the region. Despite the clouds, temperatures are already in the upper 90s to mid 100s thanks to the proximity of the large upper level ridge along the TX/NM border, as well as the drier low level troposphere noted by dewpoints mostly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs still look to reach the 103-110 range this afternoon, which will be the hottest day of the summer so far at many locations. The daily record high today of 107 at both DFW and Waco could be tied or possibly broken, although more likely for DFW than Waco. No precipitation is anticipated the rest of today or tonight, with lows dropping into the usual upper 70s to mid 80s. Tomorrow will see an increase in mid level moisture and associated cloud cover across the region, and a few models suggest some virga or a sprinkle are possible mainly in the afternoon. While this could keep temperatures down a tad, low level flow becoming more southwesterly along with even drier air below 850mb should predominate and keep highs just as hot or hotter than today. Once again, the daily record highs tomorrow of 107 at both DFW and Waco could be tied or possibly broken. On Monday night, 12Z guidance shows a weak shortwave dropping southward out of Oklahoma which could spark a few showers and storms overnight similar to what we saw this morning. Have mentioned low pops (10%) for this potential in line with latest guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 On Tuesday, the large H5 ridge that has dominated our weather for weeks will begin slowly shifting off to the west with a bit stronger northerly flow aloft across our neck of the woods. Storms are anticipated to our north across KS/OK, which could send out clouds and/or an outflow boundary that might impact temperatures in parts of North Texas. Given how uncertain this is two days away, overall setup still argues for a very hot day with highs near or only slightly below Monday`s readings, and another Extreme Heat Warning and/or a Heat Advisory will likely be needed. From Wednesday through the rest of the week, the upper level high will continue to shift westward into AZ/NM with northwesterly flow becoming established aloft over North and Central Texas. Low level moisture will also increase somewhat with dewpoints mostly in the 60s. This pattern shift will bring a return of low rain chances areawide each day/night as any weak shortwaves aloft could bring some north to south moving showers or storms, which are hard to pinpoint this far out in time. However, most areas will remain dry which only cause our ongoing drought conditions to worsen. Highs will subsequently be on a downward trend from Wednesday through Saturday and only reach the upper 90s to mid 100s. However, 12Z guidance indicates the upper high will once again shift back to the east next week which would bring our temps back up as we round out August and move into September. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 South to southwesterly winds will prevail at all TAF sites with occasional streaming mid and upper level cloud cover expected. A surface low to our northwest near the Panhandles will aid in keeping wind speeds around 11-13 kt with occasional higher gusts as we go through tomorrow afternoon. Expect the next 24-30 hours to generally remain dry, however there may be some light precipitation echoes to the northeast of D10 late in the morning and afternoon tomorrow. Any light rain that falls out of those echoes will likely result in virga, and should remain to the northeast of D10, but there is a low (<10%) chance that some develop further southwest towards the airports. Similar to today, I would not be surprised if there were a period of more variable winds in the late afternoon due to thermal eddies, but the overall wind direction will remain out of the S-SW. Additional isolated chances for precipitation may occur just beyond the 30 hour extended TAF, and will be covered in future issuances. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 108 84 108 84 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 107 81 105 79 / 10 0 0 10 Paris 105 78 105 78 / 10 0 10 10 Denton 108 83 108 82 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 106 81 106 82 / 0 0 10 10 Dallas 107 84 108 84 / 10 0 0 10 Terrell 106 80 106 80 / 10 0 0 10 Corsicana 105 80 105 78 / 20 0 0 10 Temple 106 79 105 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 109 79 109 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Prater