422
FXUS64 KFWD 161843
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
143 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms may develop later this afternoon
  across the Brazos Valley.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected this week with low rain
  chances returning Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Night/

Much of North and Central Texas is expected to remain quiet as
ridging to our west keeps any major weather systems at bay.
Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the mid to upper 90s
along and west of I-35 with the coolest temperatures expected
across East Texas. A few thunderstorms will develop closer to the
Gulf coast, producing an outflow boundary that will shift north as
we approach sunset. This outflow boundary may provide just enough
lift for a few showers and storms in our Brazos Valley and
southeastern counties through this evening. Severe weather is not
expected.

With mid-level heights increasing tonight and tomorrow, the region
will remain precipitation free with slightly warmer temperatures
expected. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index
values between 100-103 degrees.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Onward/

The long-term forecast will be influenced by a slowly eastward
migrating ridge that will keep widespread rain chances at bay.
After this afternoon`s isolated showers, our next rain chances
will arrive Wednesday evening as a cold front slides into our
region. This cold front will likely stall across North Texas and
lead to a few showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values will range
between 1500-2000 along the leading edge of the front, which will
likely be enough for a few strong to isolated severe storms. Given
weak deep-layer shear, individual storms are expected to become a
cluster of storms with strong wind gusts the main threat. Rain
chances should diminish after midnight as instability and forcing
for ascent diminishes.

The latter half of the week will continue to be warm as
temperatures stay in  the mid to upper 90s. With southerly flow
in place, afternoon thunderstorms near the Houston metro will
produce a northward moving outflow boundary that may kick off
additional storms in our region each afternoon. All storms should remain
sub-severe with minimal coverage expected.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

No significant weather is expected at any of the TAF sites through
tomorrow morning. Winds are now in the process of becoming southerly
with VFR skies in place. Tonight, a few low clouds may stream in
from the south, however, cloud cover will likely remain in the FEW
category at all TAF sites.

Tomorrow, the southerly winds will pick up with sustained winds
near 20 kts by the afternoon. Winds will remain elevated through
the evening with no wind shift in the forecast.

Hernandez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  77  95  77  94 /   5   0   0   0   5
Waco                93  75  93  75  92 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               88  73  90  74  89 /  10   0   0   0  10
Denton              94  75  95  76  94 /   5   0   0   0   5
McKinney            92  75  94  77  92 /   5   0   0   0   5
Dallas              95  78  95  77  94 /   5   0   0   0   5
Terrell             90  74  92  75  91 /  20   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           90  75  93  77  92 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              93  73  94  75  94 /  20   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       96  74  97  75  94 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$