Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
459 FXUS64 KFWD 301802 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with highs mainly in the mid and upper 90s and peak heat index values near 100 to 105 degrees. - Breezy south winds will continue through Tuesday afternoon with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph. - Rain chances may return Sunday into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 Another hot and humid day across North Central Texas today as we remain beneath a 594 dam 500 mb ridge, resulting in little to no precipitation throughout the region. Current visible satellite imagery continues to show horizontal convective rolls and associated shallow cumulus that are moving in from the SSW, primarily south and east of the Metroplex. ACARS soundings from KDFW indicate a shallow moist layer extending up to 925 mb, with nearly 40 degree dewpoint depressions atop the low-level moisture. As we currently are seeing dewpoints in the low 70s to even mid 70s across the DFW Metroplex, we can expect some of this drier air to mix down to the surface into the afternoon as daytime heating maximizes. While far from a comfortable day, this should at least make conditions feel slightly less sticky, as dewpoints will likely decrease into the mid to upper 60s into the afternoon and early evening. Tonight will be similar to the last few nights, with a gradual increase in surface dewpoint and humidity as the boundary layer decouples after sunset. Can expect overnight lows in the upper 70s for the Metroplex, and low to mid 70s elsewhere under mostly clear skies. SSE winds will decrease to around 10 knots before increasing to around 15 knots into the morning hours. Wednesday will be similar to today as the ridge axis slowly shifts towards the east, resulting in slim chances for any meaningful rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 The long term period will begin on the western periphery of a mid- level ridge centered over the Southern Appalachians, bringing us seasonably hot and mostly dry conditions across North Central Texas. There is a hint of a couple of moisture surges and Thursday and Friday, mainly east of I-35, however confidence is low enough (<15%) to keep the mention of showers and thunderstorms out of the forecast for now. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above climatology (average high for DFW on Thursday is 94 degrees), with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This will yield heat indices in the 100-105 degree range, which is just short heat index criteria despite hot and humid conditions. With the lack of any large-scale forcing for ascent, we can expect similar conditions to persist into the the 4th of July, with little to no chances for precipitation. A good day for festivities and BBQ! Heading into Sunday, we transition into a slightly more active period with weakening flow beneath the ridge. Although precipitation doesn`t look widespread at this time as there is no prominent shortwave trough moving through the area, a few spotty showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Sunday into Monday. These will be be diurnally-driven and of the "pulse" variety as flow aloft will remain weak. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon and evening across North Central Texas as subsident conditions are in place beneath an upper-level ridge. KACT has the highest probabilities (between 30-50%) of MVFR cigs mainly from 11-15Z per LAMP guidance and have therefore included a TEMPO group during this timeframe. This is consistent with HREF guidance which has greater than 65% probabilities of seeing 925 mb RH greater than 80%, suggesting the likelihood of low stratus. Kept the mention of MVFR cigs out of the TAFs for the Metroplex terminals for now as confidence remains low and conditions would remain short-lived. Can expect southerly winds to gradually become more SSE into the evening hours and weakening to around 10 knots. Winds will increase again to 10-15 knots tomorrow primarily after 14Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 98 79 98 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 77 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 10 Denton 78 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 78 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 79 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 77 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 76 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brauer LONG TERM....Brauer AVIATION...Brauer