441
FXUS64 KFWD 162303
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
603 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are forecast through the
  rest of the workweek, with low rain chances returning Wednesday
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
With all Southeast/East Texas convection expected to remain
removed from the forecast area the rest of this evening, have
eliminated the mention of low rain chances across our southeast
zones with this forecast update. Seasonably hot and humid weather
will continue tomorrow, but it will also be breezy with south
winds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. This will bring a small
amount of relief to the otherwise uncomfortable heat index values
of 100-105 degrees.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday Night/

Much of North and Central Texas is expected to remain quiet as
ridging to our west keeps any major weather systems at bay.
Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the mid to upper 90s
along and west of I-35 with the coolest temperatures expected
across East Texas. A few thunderstorms will develop closer to the
Gulf coast, producing an outflow boundary that will shift north as
we approach sunset. This outflow boundary may provide just enough
lift for a few showers and storms in our Brazos Valley and
southeastern counties through this evening. Severe weather is not
expected.

With mid-level heights increasing tonight and tomorrow, the region
will remain precipitation free with slightly warmer temperatures
expected. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index
values between 100-103 degrees.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025/
/Wednesday Onward/

The long-term forecast will be influenced by a slowly eastward
migrating ridge that will keep widespread rain chances at bay.
After this afternoon`s isolated showers, our next rain chances
will arrive Wednesday evening as a cold front slides into our
region. This cold front will likely stall across North Texas and
lead to a few showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values will range
between 1500-2000 along the leading edge of the front, which will
likely be enough for a few strong to isolated severe storms. Given
weak deep-layer shear, individual storms are expected to become a
cluster of storms with strong wind gusts the main threat. Rain
chances should diminish after midnight as instability and forcing
for ascent diminishes.

The latter half of the week will continue to be warm as
temperatures stay in  the mid to upper 90s. With southerly flow
in place, afternoon thunderstorms near the Houston metro will
produce a northward moving outflow boundary that may kick off
additional storms in our region each afternoon. All storms should
remain sub-severe with minimal coverage expected.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds. While
wind speeds are currently light around 5 kts, they will increase
tomorrow to around 15 kts with gusts near 25 kts through the
afternoon hours. All low stratus is expected to remain south and
east of the TAF sites through the valid period.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  95  77  94  76 /   0   0   0   5  30
Waco                75  93  75  92  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               73  91  74  89  73 /   0   0   0  10  30
Denton              75  96  76  94  74 /   0   0   0   5  30
McKinney            75  94  77  92  75 /   0   0   0   5  30
Dallas              78  96  77  94  76 /   0   0   0   5  20
Terrell             74  92  75  91  74 /   0   0   0   5  20
Corsicana           75  93  77  92  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              73  95  75  94  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       74  97  75  94  73 /   0   0   0   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$