086
FXUS64 KFWD 250739
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
139 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread hazardous travel impacts due to wintry precipitation
  will continue across North and Central Texas today. Although
  precipitation will end later today, travel impacts will
  continue through Monday and Tuesday.

- Strong winds along with ice on tree limbs and power lines could
  cause sporadic power outages today and Sunday.

- Life-threatening cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero at
  times through Tuesday morning will result in hypothermia and
  frostbite if precautions are not taken.

- A long duration of below-freezing temperatures will continue
  through Tuesday which will increase the risk of broken pipes
  and water damage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 117 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Ongoing Warnings
- Ice Storm and Winter Storm Warning through noon today
- Extreme Cold Warning through Tuesday morning

Precipitation
- North Texas and much of Central Texas is now covered with a
  combination of ice, sleet and snow.
- Widespread sleet is occurring across North Texas with many
  locations along the Red River switching over to snow in the
  coming hours.
- A combination of sleet and freezing rain will continue across
  the Brazos Valley and our southeastern counties. Lightning
  within the embedded sleet showers will generate localized higher
  accumulations of sleet and freezing rain.
- Sleet/Snow: Additional accumulations of .5 to 1 inch of sleet
  and snow will be possible on top of what has already fallen in
  North Texas. For Central Texas, up to a half an inch of
  additional sleet can be expected.
- Ice: Additional ice accumulations of a trace to isolated
  quarter inch of ice will be possible across Central Texas. The
  highest ice accumulations are likely to occur within the Ice
  Storm Warning.
- Widespread sleet will taper off into snow across North Texas
  after sunrise today. The bulk of the precipitation will then
  move east by noon.
- Light snow may develop across North Texas this afternoon;
  additional accumulations will remain confined to the immediate
  Red River counties.
- Lake effect snow flurries may develop south and southeast of
  area lakes this afternoon. At this time, additional
  accumulations are not expected.

Temperatures
- This morning`s temperatures will range from the single digits
  to mid teens west of I-35. Mid to upper teens are expected east
  of I-35.
- Wind chills will along and west of I-35 will range from 5 below
  zero to 7 degrees. East of I-35, expect wind chills in the
  single digits to teens.
- Colder temperatures are expected tonight with temperatures
  ranging from 3 below zero to lower lower teens. Wind chills will
  range from 13 below zero to 0 degrees.
-Temperatures will remain below the freezing mark through Tuesday
 morning. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures across the region
 will be above freezing.

-- Discussion --

Large-scale troughing across the country continues to draw
embedded shortwaves across the Southern Plains, with one making
its way atop North and Central Texas at this time. This shortwave
is spreading a large swath of forcing for ascent across the
region, with an ongoing mix of precipitation. Temperature profiles
vary greatly from north to south, with a warm layer sampled by
the latest FWD weather balloon. This layer of warm air continues
to be the culprit behind continued sleet and freezing rain across
the region. The cold air, however, will begin deepening this
morning with a switch over to sleet and snow, then likely all snow
on the back edge of the precipitation. This transition will
likely occur from northwest to southwest after sunrise. With mid-
level cold air advection in place, weak subsidence will gradually
drive widespread precipitation away from North and Central Texas.
The exception will be along and north of the I-20 corridor where a
secondary trailing shortwave may provide just enough lift to
squeeze out a few more snowflakes during the afternoon hours.
Given the ongoing freezing temperatures, any snow that does fall
will add to the accumulations already in place. The light nature
of any afternoon snow will keep additional accumulations to a
minimum. In addition to the passing shortwave, area lakes remain
warm and will provide additional moisture to warrant a mention of
lake- effect snow flurries south and southeast of North-South
oriented lakes. Again, accumulations are not expected as snow
intensity within any lake effect snow will remain light.

Surface high pressure will settle in overnight, leading to light
to calm winds across much of the region. With partial clear of
clouds expected overnight, radiational cooling will allow for
temperatures to dip into the negative territory west and
northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. Elsewhere, single
digits to lower teens are expected. Wind chills will be a few
degrees colder. Remember your 4 Ps - People, Pets, Pipes and
Plants! Hopefully by now, your pipes and plants are taken care of!
Check in with your family and friends and don`t leave pets
outdoors during this extreme cold.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 117 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

-Temperatures will remain below the freezing mark through Tuesday
 morning. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures across the region
 will be above freezing.
- Black ice will become a concern each night as a thaw-freeze
  cycle occurs each day.


Next Weekend`s System
- A cold front arrives on Friday, supplying another round of cold
  temperatures.
- Temperatures WILL NOT be as cold as they currently are right
  now.
- Precipitation chances do arrive on Saturday, however,
  confidence in precipitation location and temperature profile
  remain low. This will change throughout the course of the week.

As mentioned in the short-term discussion, extreme cold
temperatures will once again be in place through Monday night with
single digits to mid-teens in place. It won`t be until Tuesday
when temperatures surge above freezing, allowing for a widespread
thaw to commence. The concern going forward will be the development
of black ice as daytime thawing leads to wet roads during the
day. As soon as the sun sets, rapid freezing can be expected
making for continued slick spots across the region.

Weak ridging will be in place Tuesday and Wednesday, however,
temperatures will still remain below normal as highs will only be
in the 30s and 40s. Overnight, temperatures will continue to be
the teens and 20s.

A strong cold front looks to arrive Friday night as another round
of troughing engulfs the eastern CONUS. There is still a large
degree of uncertainty in the temperature forecast for this
weekend. As the cold air moves in, a shortwave trough will move
across Northern Mexico and into the Southern Plains. Again, the
exact track of the shortwave is uncertain at this time, however,
it`ll be something we`ll continue to monitor over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A combination of sleet and snow grains will continue for several
more hours as a shortwave currently entering Southwest Texas lifts
northeast across the region overnight. Fortunately it looks like
the heaviest of the precipitation has moved through already, and
is headed for East Texas, but -SNPL should still continue
periodically through the night. A transition to mainly snow should
occur 12-14Z in the DFW Metroplex, but will likely remain -SNPL
at KACT. Precipitation will taper off around midday Sunday as the
shortwave accelerates off to the northeast, the main upper trough
shifts east, and the precipitation shield heads for the Deep
South.

MVFR at the present should deteriorate to IFR overnight as
ceilings gradually drop. Recent guidance has backed off LIFR cigs,
so the lowest currently forecast are 006 with the morning snow.
Improvement to MVFR should occur around 21Z Sunday, with VFR
finally arriving around 26/03Z in the Metroplex. There is a low-
end chance for light lake effect snow in and around DFW this
afternoon, but probs are too low to mention in the TAFs at this
time. MVFR Cigs will otherwise linger later into the evening at
KACT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    18   9  29  15 /  40   0   0   0
Waco                21  11  28  10 /  20   0   0   0
Paris               18   6  29   6 /  50  10   0   0
Denton              17   0  28   8 /  40   0   0   0
McKinney            18   5  28  10 /  40   0   0   0
Dallas              19  10  29  13 /  40   0   0   0
Terrell             19   7  28  10 /  30   0   0   0
Corsicana           20  12  31  14 /  30   0   0   0
Temple              21   9  32  11 /  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       16   3  29  10 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-123-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175.

Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for TXZ122-135-147-148-
162.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...30/MB