Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
836 FXUS64 KFWD 311106 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 606 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers (40-60% coverage) will continue through the morning with a drying trend this afternoon. - Another storm system is forecast to sweep across the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. There is a low risk of severe weather, but details will continue to be refined over the weekend. - Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers and storms move east. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 An upper-level disturbance will continue moving northeast across Texas today while a weak surface low tracks from Central Texas toward the upper Texas coast. Deep moisture remains in place, but the thermodynamic environment is quite stable with essentially no meaningful instability available for thunderstorms. A broad area of light rain and showers will therefore continue through the morning, with the greatest coverage generally across East Texas. Despite widespread radar echoes at times, a relatively dry layer in the lower and middle levels will limit rainfall efficiency. Most locations should receive less than a tenth of an inch through the remainder of the event, although a few spots across Central or East Texas could receive a bit more. Rain coverage should decrease considerably by midday before ending from west to east during the afternoon. A trailing weak disturbance may maintain a few showers across the eastern counties a little longer, but all precipitation should be east of the region by late afternoon or early evening. This continues to support favorable conditions for Halloween activities. Trick-or-treaters should not have to content with rain this evening, with light winds and temperatures generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s around sunset. The primary downside will be lingering cloud cover and relatively humid conditions. Clouds should gradually become less widespread tonight as weak shortwave ridging builds overhead. Patchy fog may develop early Sunday morning given the moist near-surface environment and light winds, although the potential for cloud cover may prevent widespread fog development. Overnight lows will generally fall into the lower and middle 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Sunday will provide a brief break between weather systems as shortwave ridging moves across the Southern Plains. Increasing sunshine and the return of southerly flow will allow temperatures to rebound into the lower 80s, around 10 degrees warmer than Saturday. The pressure gradient will strengthen Sunday night into Monday as a deep western trough moves into the Rockies and a surface cyclone rapidly deepens across the central High Plains. Southerly winds will increase substantially Monday, with sustained speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts around 30-35 mph likely. Strong warm advection will push Monday afternoon temperatures into the lower and middle 80s while Gulf moisture increases ahead of the approaching system. The western upper low will eject into the Plains Monday night, diving a strong cold front southeast into North and Central Texas. Although some timing uncertainty remains, the most likely window for frontal passage and thunderstorms currently appears to be Monday night into Tuesday morning. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread a moist and modestly unstable warm sector ahead of the front. Forecast soundings continue to depict sufficient instability and strong deep-layer shear for organized convection. A line of showers and thunderstorms is therefore expected to accompany the front as it moves southeast across the region. The severe weather threat remains conditional but non-zero. The primary concern would be strong to damaging wind gusts within a fast-moving line of storms. The greatest severe potential currently appears to be near the Red River, where stronger mid-level flow will be oriented more favorably relative to the front. Farther south, storm organization should remain sufficient for strong wind gusts, but the magnitude of the severe threat will depend how far south the stronger upper-level forcing ultimately progresses. There remains some spread regarding the depth and trajectory of the upper trough. A deeper solution would increase wind fields and potentially the severe threat across a larger portion of North and Central Texas, while a farther-north solution would keep the more substantial threat closer to Oklahoma and the Red River. A much drier airmass will spread into the region Tuesday behind the front. Sunshine should return fairly quickly, but strong pressure rises and deep mixing will maintain gusty northwest winds through much of the day. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts near 30 mph appear likely. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler, with highs generally in the 70s. Surface high pressure will settle into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing quieter fall weather with seasonable afternoons and cooler mornings. Guidance then begins to hint at another more active pattern towards late next week as a split-flow regime across the Pacific sends additional disturbances toward Texas, however, confidence in timing is low at this range. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Concerns: MVFR ceilings this afternoon. VFR ceilings are ongoing at this time over all of North and Central Texas, however, cloud heights will continue to decrease through the rest of the morning. Expect a period of MVFR conditions with clouds closer to 2500 AGL. The ceilings will persist through the early afternoon before low-level mixing returns to region to VFR skies. There may be a few rain showers this afternoon across D10, however, coverage is expected to remain very isolated. Therefore, the latest forecast removes any mention of precipitation within the terminals. Winds are now expected to remain mainly southeasterly to easterly through the rest of this TAF cycle with wind speeds at or below 5 kts. Tonight, residual low-level moisture may lead to the development of fog should clouds clear out. The exact location and severity of the fog is uncertain, therefore, expect updates to the TAF regarding tomorrow morning`s low clouds/fog. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 63 81 68 / 20 10 10 0 Waco 77 62 83 66 / 10 10 10 0 Paris 72 61 80 64 / 60 20 10 0 Denton 74 58 81 64 / 20 10 0 0 McKinney 73 59 80 64 / 30 10 10 0 Dallas 76 64 82 68 / 20 10 10 0 Terrell 75 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 0 Corsicana 75 63 81 66 / 20 10 10 0 Temple 80 63 85 66 / 10 10 10 0 Mineral Wells 74 58 80 64 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez