Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
819 FXUS64 KFWD 020805 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 205 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog will be possible Monday morning across Central Texas. - A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move across North and Central Texas this evening into tonight. - Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers and storms move east. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 154 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Morning low clouds, along with patchy fog across Central Texas will give way to a warm afternoon across North and Central Texas. The ridge we had in place over the weekend will be shifting east today, however, enough subsidence coupled with increasing southwesterly low-level winds will drive temperatures in the mid to upper 80s - about 15-20 degrees above seasonal average. By the late afternoon, attention turns to a rapidly amplifying upper trough ejecting from the Desert Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and lee cyclogenesis will tighten the surface pressure gradient through the day, resulting in increasingly strong southerly winds. Sustained speeds of 15- 20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph will become common by the early afternoon and continue through the evening hours. With a layer of warm air aloft in place, most of North and Central Texas should remain capped and rain-free through much of the afternoon. The first opportunity for thunderstorm activity will be across northwestern portions of our region late in the afternoon as storms develop near the dryline. Initial thunderstorm development immediately to the northwest of our region will be the most favorable for discrete supercells given strong deep layer shear and roughly 1500 J/kg of instability. Any supercell during this initial stage would be capable of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. As the sun begins to set, storm coverage is expected to increase over our area as large-scale forcing for ascent arrives and thunderstorms begin to organize into a broken line or clusters of storms moving east. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern as convection becomes increasingly linear. If portions of the line acquire a northwest to southeast orientation, the low- level shear vector may become more favorably oriented relative to the convective line, supporting embedded rotating elements and the potential for a brief QLCS tornado or two. Although large hail cannot be ruled out, the main hail threat will be during the initial thunderstorm development before storm mode becomes more linear. Current timing favors the main line of thunderstorms reaching the I-35 corridor around 11pm tonight, with thunderstorms progressing steadily east overnight. Locally heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms, but the fast movement of the line of storms should keep the threat for flash flooding low. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 154 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 The line of thunderstorms will likely be exiting the region around 8am Tuesday as the front continues to push southeast. A much different weather regime will develop behind the front as drier air surges into the region. Skies will clear from west to east with strong pressure rises expected. This should allow for breezy winds out of the northwest through much of Tuesday afternoon with occasional wind gusts to near 25 mph. Temperatures will also be cooler, generally in the lower to middle 70s. High pressure will build into the Southern Plains Tuesday night, allowing winds to weaken and temperatures to decrease into the 40s and lower 50s by Wednesday morning. Pleasant fall weather will continue Wednesday with abundant sunshine, low humidity and highs mainly in the lower and middle 70s. The remainder of the workweek should remain largely quiet. Another weather system is expected to cross the Plains late Thursday into Friday, but the better moisture and forcing should remain north of our region. The main sensible impact will be a reinforcing push of cooler air, holding highs on Friday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we approach this upcoming weekend, forecast confidence decreases as guidance continues to diverge on the evolution of another trough approaching the Southern Plains. For now, a mostly dry and near-seasonal temperature forecast is favored. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 154 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Two periods of impactful weather are now in the TAFs with a morning round of low ceilings, followed by evening and overnight thunderstorm activity. Early morning clouds continue to stream across the region, however, cloud heights at this time remain near FL250. As we progress through the morning, southerly winds will drive increasing moisture northward and MVFR is expected to develop across D10. For Waco, there will be an increasing potential for temporary IFR restrictions to be in place, generally between 12- 15z. Conditions will improve to VFR by late this morning as low-level mixing commences. South winds will increase, reaching 15-20 kts with gusts closer to 25 kts after about 16z. Given the southerly orientation of the wind, North-South oriented runways will have little to no crosswind concerns. The next concern will arrive as a line of thunderstorms approaches D10 from the west. By 04z, expect storms to approach the D10 airspace as a front pushes all thunderstorms to the east. Strong wind gusts, lightning and brief visibility/ceiling reductions are expected should storms directly impact the TAF sites. Behind the line of storms, a cold front will lead to a transition from southerly to northwesterly winds, likely arriving closer to 09z. A similar trend is expected across Central Texas, however, storms are likely to arrive just beyond the scope of this TAF cycle. Expect a mention of thunderstorms in the next package as the latest timing looks to be closer to 08z at KACT. By 12z Tuesday, the line should have cleared KACT with northwesterly winds and VFR skies in place. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 63 73 54 / 0 80 10 0 Waco 86 65 75 51 / 0 90 50 0 Paris 85 66 74 50 / 0 90 60 0 Denton 85 59 72 46 / 10 80 0 0 McKinney 85 62 73 49 / 0 90 20 0 Dallas 87 64 74 55 / 0 90 20 0 Terrell 86 65 74 50 / 0 90 50 0 Corsicana 86 67 75 53 / 0 90 70 0 Temple 87 66 76 52 / 0 90 60 0 Mineral Wells 85 57 72 49 / 20 80 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez