Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
197 FXUS64 KFWD 072317 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 517 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures will continue through next week. Low afternoon humidity could lead to some grass fire activity through the weekend. - Low rain chances of 20-40% return Tuesday and Tuesday night, but no significant rain amounts are expected. - Another system will approach the region late week with increasing rain chances into the following weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1220 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 Light southeast winds will prevail the rest of the day as surface high pressure moves to our east. Despite the sunny skies, temperatures won`t be as warm as yesterday with highs generally staying in the 70s. Coverage of mid to high level clouds will increase tonight into Sunday as a weak disturbance moves aloft. With the return of the southerly flow, moisture will begin to increase as well. As a result, tonight`s lows will stay in the mid 40s to lower 50s and tomorrow`s highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s. A few locations west of I-35 may see highs in the lower 80s as winds veer more to the southwest. The combination of low humidity and warm temperatures across the far western zones will keep the threat for grass fires slightly elevated again on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1220 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 A relatively active weather pattern will take hold this upcoming week and persist into next weekend. Large scale troughing over the western U.S. will send a series of disturbances into the southern and central Plains. The first system, currently centered west of Baja California, will continue to move eastward into northern Mexico early this week. As large scale lift spread across the region, isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop Tuesday and Tuesday night. Given the progressive nature of this system, rainfall amounts will remain fairly light -- generally a tenth of an inch or less. A weak front will swing southward on Wednesday, but it will likely stall/wash out before reaching North Texas. With southerly winds prevailing almost every day this week, temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. Extended guidance continues to highlight another storm system arriving late this week. Despite the expected differences in timing and progression of the upper trough, more than half of the ensembles have some rain chances for our area beginning late Friday or Saturday. This system will be worth monitoring, as it could represent our next opportunity for measurable rainfall and the return of cooler, more seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 503 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with increasing mid/high cloud coverage tonight and tomorrow. SE winds will become increasingly southerly and eventually southwesterly by Sunday afternoon, while sustained speeds remain around 8-14 kts. Expect occasional cigs at 10-12 kft during the daytime tomorrow with a persistent cirrus canopy also in place. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 443 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 52 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 49 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 46 73 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 47 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 49 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 52 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 49 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 50 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 47 79 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 48 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Stalley