Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
318 FXUS64 KFWD 211952 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 252 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will continue through the evening with the arrival of a weak cold front. There will be a continued threat of strong to damaging downburst winds, as well as hail. - Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will prevail through the remainder of the workweek. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across Central Texas along an outflow boundary generated from this morning`s thunderstorm complex in the Arklatex region. With strongly buoyant parcels, vigorous updrafts have been able to develop, generating isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds. As this activity continues to move south, expect a similar threat through the next few hours. The true front is still lagging behind this activity with the latest surface analysis placing the front just northwest of our region. The front will continue to progress southward through the rest of the afternoon with the potential for additional thunderstorm development along the front. Similar to the environment across Central Texas, there will be a threat for strong to marginally severe storms capable of strong winds and small hail. Overall, coverage should remain scattered, with probabilities around 20-30% across North Texas. Storm chances will continue to shift south through the evening, gradually decreasing as daytime instability is lost. Most convection should dissipate tonight, leaving mainly dry conditions overnight. A drier airmass will begin filtering into North Texas on Tuesday as northeast winds become established behind the front. The deeper moisture axis will become displaced toward West Texas, substantially reducing rain chances across most of the forecast area. A few showers or storms may still develop Tuesday afternoon near and west of HWY 281 where better moisture remains, but most locations will remain dry. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Predominantly dry weather is forecast from midweek onward as building heights aloft maintain above normal temperatures, while large-scale subsidence limits rain chances. A reinforcing push of dry air in east/northeast flow will maintain low dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s, and this will result in less oppressive late season heat with heat index values near or below ambient temperatures. Highs will still be in the 90s for most of the area through the extended forecast period, about 5-10 degrees above normal for the first week of astronomical fall. Another breakdown of the ridge axis and weak frontal intrusion could occur sometime late this weekend or early next week which would be the next mentionable opportunity for rain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Widespread thunderstorms are ongoing across Central Texas, generating along a southward surging outflow from this mornings thunderstorm activity across the Arklatex. Much of this activity is expected to remain south of the TAF sites. However, a few storms cannot be ruled out within the vicinity of the TAF sites this afternoon given a continued moist, hot and unstable environment. Northeasterly winds are expected to persist through the duration of this TAF cycle with VFR conditions remaining in place. For Waco, a similar trend is expected, however, the bulk of the activity is expected to remain east of Waco. Winds across North Texas remain fairly light out of the northeast. The northeasterly winds will persist across the region thanks to a weak front moving south out of Oklahoma. Waco will likely continue with variable wind speeds through the next few hours before becoming established out of the northeast this evening. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 95 75 95 / 30 10 10 10 Waco 74 96 74 97 / 30 10 10 10 Paris 71 94 71 93 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 71 94 70 95 / 20 10 10 10 McKinney 70 95 70 94 / 20 10 10 0 Dallas 76 96 76 96 / 30 10 10 10 Terrell 72 97 73 95 / 20 10 10 10 Corsicana 73 97 74 96 / 30 10 10 0 Temple 72 96 73 98 / 20 20 10 0 Mineral Wells 68 93 69 95 / 30 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez