Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
232 FXUS64 KFWD 051109 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 609 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal this week into the weekend. - Chances for rain Friday afternoon and evening continue to decrease and are now less than 10%. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 High pressure and dry conditions will continue across North and Central Texas. Highs will be near to slightly above normal ranging from the upper-90s to the lower-100s. Slightly cooler afternoon temperatures are expected across Central Texas where humidity will be higher. As such, heat indices across all of North and Central Texas will range from 100-105. There is some signal for pockets of heat indices ranging from 105-107 Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. However there is not enough confidence in location nor enough areal extent in this signal to warrant the issuance of a Heat Advisory at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 No change in weather pattern is expected through the long term portion of this forecast period. High pressure will continue to dominate across the region bringing continued sun and heat. The upper-level ridge currently over the southern Rockies/Four Corners region will retrograde westward into the Great Basin by this weekend allowing for very weak height falls across the area. This may result in temperatures 1-3 degrees cooler this weekend (closer to normal for this time of year with highs in the upper-90s). Furthermore, rain chances across model guidance continue to decrease with a weakening trend in the cold front that will stall to our north. Depending on convective evolution in OK/KS Thursday and Thursday night, there is a very low chance that a remnant MCV (or some sort of low-amplitude upper-level perturbation) may approach the area from the north providing sufficient forcing along with very weak height falls and ample boundary layer moisture for a stray shower or thunderstorm Friday afternoon/evening. Confidence in this scenario remains low so will keep precipitation chances less than 10%. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 VFR conditions and south flow (160-200) at 7-12 knots is expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 81 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 100 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 97 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 102 79 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 102 78 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 102 82 101 81 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 101 77 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 98 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 99 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah