264
FXUS65 KGGW 101141
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
441 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
- Strong but brief warm up today. Temps drop an bit Wednesday and
  Tuesday and briefly spike again Thursday, before cooling off
  for the weekend.

- Next chance for rain or snow is Friday, but no significant
  totals are expected. 0.01" chance is 5-30%. 0.10" chance is
  1-5%.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Temps warm up today as large scale ridging builds into the
region. Atop the ridge is strong chinook event with near overcast
chinook arch clouds. A shortwave will briefly flatten the ridge
Monday night with a dry frontal passage.

The new cooler air Tuesday and wednesday will move out as a ridge
moves in Thursday. This will drag temps to well above normal
again for the day. Models and ensembles have significant How the
ridge exits Friday with a cold front. Isolated light showers are
possible across the region, but no significant QPF is anticipated.
The ridge exits turning flow southwest for the weekend. After
Sunday ensembles become too wide in differences on the strength of
a trough and whether or not any moisture makes it east of the
continental divide with it.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Main BIG NBM DEVIATION: A passing ridge is generating near
widespread overcast high chinook arch clouds for the area. But,
being higher than 12kft the ASOS and some AWOS ceilometers will
not report them (instead SKC) and they are not getting assimilated
into the observations correctly and therefore almost no clouds
exist in the base models for the NBM across the region. For this
reason had to bump hourlies for nearly the whole morning up from
SKC/FEW to BKN/OVC for TAFs and sky conditions and then taper it
out in the late afternoon/evening back into NBM. Maybe some day
they will start incorporating GOES satellite data as a check for
starting Sky coverage/upper level RH into models.

Confidence in forecast is HIGH through Thursday.

Confidence in forecast is MODERATE to LOW Thursday night through
Saturday night.

Confidence in forecast is LOW Sunday onward.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATE: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Mid to high level chinook arch clouds will keep the
area VFR as a ridge moves through the region today and exits
tonight.

WIND: S to SE at 5 to 10 knots through the early morning. Veering
to the SW in the late morning. Then veering W to NW and
increasing to 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon and lasting through
the night.

LLWS: There is a chance for low level wind shear at all the
terminals running through roughly 15Z Tuesday morning.

EQUIPMENT: KOLF`s ASOS telecom circuit is down and can not be
dialed into. Therefore, AMD NOT SKED for this TAF until repairs
can be made.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow