417
FXUS65 KGGW 281918
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
118 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Update: 1930Z

KEY MESSAGES:

- Monsoonal moisture will drift into NE Montana this evening and
  hang around through Saturday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
  are expected across the area during that time.

- Cold front moves in early next week (Monday night/Tuesday),
  bringing north winds and the chance for some showers and
  thunderstorms.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A weak jet stream within the upper level ridge will allow
monsoonal moisture to push in from the south this evening. The
first locations to see shower and thunderstorm activity will be
closer to central Montana. There is moderate (50 percent)
confidence of at least some portions of Petroleum, southwest
Phillips, Garfield and Wibaux counties receiving at least one
tenth of an inch of rain. Beyond those areas, chances are low
(<20%) of receiving much more than a light, brief shower.

System gradually moves out Saturday and above average temperatures
are expected by Labor Day.

There is high (70 percent) confidence a cold front will drop
south into the area Monday night and Tuesday that will bring
isolated showers and thunderstorms. There is low confidence on
precipitation amounts and location with this front. Below average
temperatures are expected on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Made no major changes to base NBM for the afternoon update today.
Winds seem to be hanging within a reasonable envelope of the NBM,
therefore didn`t see a need to blend in NBM90 at this time.

There is low to moderate confidence in precipitation likelihood
and location (<30%) through Saturday. There is high confidence in
forecast temperatures over the next 4 days and a cold front
moving through on Monday night into Tuesday.

Cliff

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated: 1930Z

Expected Flight Category: VFR

Synopsis: High-level clouds will likely remain over the region
through Friday, and there will be some low probability (<30%) of
some light rain showers to the west and south of many of the
airfields in the region, mostly on Friday.

Wind: Expect winds to remain mostly under 10 kts out of the
southeast, though if any showers or storms do happen to make their
way towards an airfield, winds may be variable in direction and
gusty.

Equipment: KGDV AWOS is currently not sending METARS. Amendments
will not be scheduled.

Cliff

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow