820
FXUS65 KGGW 112343
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
543 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
* A change in the weather pattern will bring potential for
  accumulating rain this weekend and cooler temperatures.

* Strong winds are expected Sunday.

* Warm and dry conditions resume Monday.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
As dry cold front moves into western North Dakota this afternoon,
Northwest winds behind it will diminish. A developing system then
will bring isolated rain showers south of the Missouri River
tonight.

SW flow aloft on Saturday will be over the forecast area which
will be ahead of an approaching cooler, open wave low pressure
trough. This will bring increasing moisture into the forecast
area. By the afternoon, chances for a tenth of an inch of
precipitation look to be 50-60% over most of the CWA (the
exception being Phillips, Prairie and Wibaux counties).

Upper trough moves through eastern Montana Saturday night and
Sunday morning. A dry slop will push much of the rainfall to the
eastern then northeast zones Saturday Night with some wraparound
precipitation moving through the central zones Sunday morning.
But the winds will be increasing Sunday with 30 mph sustained
speeds common during the afternoon. Gusts to 55 mph are possible
as well.

The upper trough moves east Sunday night ending the chances for
precipitation. A ridge of high pressure moves into Montana on
Tuesday with warm and dry weather for much of next week.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Blended with NBM90 on Sunday`s winds. Other deviations were minor
to temperatures through the weekend.

There is high confidence on precipitation occurring this weekend
with low to moderate confidence specific rainfall amounts through
Sunday night. TFJ


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2330Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: A dry cold front is pushing east into western ND this
afternoon. Clouds will thicken tonight from the west southwest
with isolated rain showers possible. A more substantial area of
rain showers are expected to move in Saturday afternoon with
ceilings dropping to MVFR at KGGW and KOLF around 22Z in the
afternoon and then spreading SE, reaching KSDY and KGDV by
the evening.

SFC WIND: NW at 10-20 this afternoon diminishing to less than 10
kts this evening. Mainly light and variable winds Saturday morning
will increase by afternoon (with a variable direction).

TFJ/GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck
Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern
Valley and Northern Phillips Counties.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow