923
FXUS65 KGGW 112046
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
246 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmer temperatures that will be above normal are expected
  through Monday.

- There will be frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms
  beginning tonight and continuing for the next several days.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A shortwave trough on NW flow aloft moves through the area tonight
and Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms with a weak
cold front that will bring slightly cooler temperatures on
Sunday.

Temperatures rebound on Monday ahead of a stronger shortwave
trough, with a cold front that will move through the forecast area
Monday afternoon and night. Models and ensembles are pointing
towards enough instability for a few thunderstorms with this
system. NBM has a 15-35 percent probability of a thunderstorm
Monday afternoon and night at this point and a 30 to 60 percent
chance of measurable precipitation.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal Tuesday and beyond.
Models and ensembles have upper trough lingering over the area
through at least Wednesday with differences showing up in the
pattern for late next week.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence exists on above average temperatures through
Monday. The current NBM highs for Monday are at the lower end of
the NBM possibilities (5-25%), so there is a good chance that the
NBM is underforecasting the highs so raised highs a few degrees
so that most locations are closer to the NBM 25%.

Low confidence on timing of any showers and thunderstorms tonight
and Sunday. Medium confidence on showers and thunderstorms Monday
and Monday night. Low confidence on timing and showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and beyond. Expect, highly variable
precipitation amounts next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A cold front moves through the area tonight with increasing
mid level clouds and a chance of showers and thunderstorms that
will continue into Sunday.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow