811
FXUS63 KGID 272035
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
335 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (15% to 20%) of showers and storms
  across northwestern portions of the area this evening into
  tonight.

- Chances of showers and storms increase up to around 35% chance
  Saturday evening and night for northern and western portions
  of the area. Large hail and damaging winds are possible.

- Chances of showers and storms continue to increase Sunday
  afternoon and evening (up to around 70% chance). Large hail and
  damaging winds will be possible.

- Saturday will be the warmest day of the forecast with heat
  index values in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Today and tonight...

A weak upper trough is over Canada and portions of the Midwest.
Another weak upper trough is over the Pacific Northwest. Winds
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
are out of the south southeast. Temperatures today are expected to
reach the upper 80s to mid 90s. A shortwave trough from the west
will move toward the area tonight. Showers and storms associated
with the shortwave are expected to develop in western Nebraska by
this evening and move eastward. These storms will weaken as they
head east. There is a low chance (15% to 20%) that they will reach
northwestern portions of the forecast area (west and north of the
Tri-Cities) this evening and tonight. Severe weather is not expected
this evening into tonight due to the weakening trend of these
storms. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

Conditions on Saturday will be fairly similar to those today except
temperatures may be a few degrees warmer with highs in the low to
high 90s. Heat index values across some areas on Saturday may reach
100 to 102 degrees. Another shortwave is expected to move over south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas Saturday into Saturday
night. A cold front associated with an upper trough passing over the
northern Plains will begin moving into Nebraska Saturday night. A
surface trough will be present ahead of this front. High surface
CAPE values and mid-level lapse rates will be present across the
area. Wind shear values will get up to around 20 to 30 knots.
Showers and storms may develop along the shortwave and along the
cold front late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Models are
not clear on when and where these storms will develop and how they
will progress. One model shows a complex of storms moving into the
area from the northwest Saturday evening while another model shows
storms developing in the western and northern part of Nebraska and
mostly remaining out of the forecast area. The development and
evolution of the storms will depend on the timing and strength of
the cold front as well as the shortwave trough. If storms move into
the area, especially during the early evening hours, they will have
the potential to become strong to severe given the above mentioned
conditions. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats
with these storms. Low temperatures Saturday night will mostly be in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Sunday and Sunday night...

An upper trough will be over the northern and central Plains and
Midwest on Sunday with the cold front strengthening and moving into
the area. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the front
during the afternoon and evening hours. High CAPE and mid-level
lapse rates will be present and wind shear is expected to get up to
around 30 to 45 knots. There is a threat of severe storms Sunday
afternoon and evening given the above mentioned conditions. The main
threats with these storms are large hail and damaging winds. Storm
chances on Sunday are higher than the previous two days with chances
up to around 70%. There is some uncertainty with the timing and
coverage of the storms. Temperatures on Sunday will be dependent on
the timing of the front but are generally expected to get up to the
mid 80s to mid/upper 90s. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in
the lower to upper 60s.

Monday through Thursday...

Nebraska and Kansas will be on the backside of the upper trough on
Monday with winds across the forecast area mostly out of the north.
High temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas will be in the mid to upper 80s on Monday. Low
temperatures Monday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. An
upper ridge will extend northward to Kansas and Nebraska on Tuesday
with winds across the area mostly out of the south. Temperatures on
Tuesday will warm up slightly from the previous day. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will be in the low to mid 60s. Upper
ridging continues over the area on Wednesday with highs in the mid
80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the
mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures warm up slightly on Thursday with
highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. The extended forecast will be
mostly dry except for a 15% to near 30% chance of showers and storms
for portions of the area Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Winds will generally range from the southeast to south or south
southwest. Wind gusts up to around 20 knots are possible this
afternoon and again late tomorrow morning. Low ceilings are
possible beginning around 10z and continuing until around 16z
Saturday but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt