628
FXUS63 KGID 010853
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
353 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms possible through sunrise for areas west and
  north of the Tri-Cities.

- Hot pattern continues with high temps in the upper 80s- low
  100s through the end of the week.

- Storms again expected to develop late Tuesday
  evening/overnight mainly affecting areas north of I-80 or
  west of Hwy-183. Some storms could be strong-severe.

-Off and on storm chances remain through the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

A cluster of weakening thunderstorms in Eastern Colorado/Northwest
Kansas are pushing to the Northeast with scattered storms continuing
through sunrise. The trend of hot temps continues with highs
reaching into the upper 80s-low 100s. Heat index values will be in
the 90s-100s for the entire area.

Over the late evening/overnight hours storm chances return to the
area. Sufficient CAPE and shear are present for the development of
strong to severe storms. Storm development will depend on the path
of a weak frontal system moving through the area. Current guidance
suggests storms will form along the front in the Sandhills tracking
east-northeast. The best chance for storms stays to the north of I-
80 or west of Hwy-183. The biggest threat for severe storms remains
to the north, in the Sandhills and South Dakota.

The general pattern of troughing to the west of the Rockies and
ridging over the Plains/Midwest remains in place through the end of
the week keeping the southwest flow in place. With this pattern,
warm temps, with highs in the upper 80s-90s expected to continue
into the early part of September. Additionally any
disturbances/shortwaves moving through the pattern will continue to
provide low chances (10-20%) of storms on any given day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

An upper ridge of high pressure extends from the southeast part of
the country and Texas northward to Nebraska and portions of the
Midwest. An upper low is centered over southern Canada and extends
southward over the northern Plains and portions of the Upper
Midwest. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas are fairly light at around 5 to 10 MPH and are
transitioning to the south to southeast. High temperatures today
will range from the mid 80s to upper 90s across the forecast area. A
shortwave trough is expected to move over/near the area late this
evening into tonight. This will result in showers and storms
developing and moving across mainly areas along and to the west and
north of the Tri-Cities area beginning around 1 AM and continuing
until around or slightly past sunrise. CAPE, wind shear, and lapse
rates will be sufficient for some of these storms to become strong
to marginally severe. Hail up to around quarter size and wind gusts
up to around 60 MPH will be possible with the strongest storms. A
surface low will be near/across the area tonight with low
temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

A surface low will remain across the area on Tuesday with south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on the
northwest periphery of the upper ridge. Winds will increase out of
mostly the south Tuesday afternoon with highs warming up into the
upper 80s to near 100 degrees. A weak cold front will begin moving
into the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Showers and storms
are expected to develop late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening
along this front and associated with an upper disturbance moving
over/near the area. These storms will have the potential to become
strong to severe given high CAPE and fairly high wind shear and
lapse rates. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.
The severe threat will last until around midnight with storms
expected to go away 2 to 3 hours afterwards. Low temperatures
Tuesday night will generally range from the low/mid 60s to the
mid/upper 70s.

Winds will increase out of the south Wednesday afternoon as a
surface trough strengthens across western Nebraska and western
Kansas. High temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slightly
higher than the previous day. Isolated showers and storms may move
across northern portions of the area (mainly north of the Tri-
Cities) Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as a shortwave moves
overhead. The region will continue to be under the northwestern
periphery of the upper ridge through Friday before the ridge become
more centered over the southern/central Plains over the weekend. On
and off again slight rain and storm chances (15% to 25%) will be
present across various portions of the area through Sunday night.
High temperatures Thursday through Sunday will generally range from
the upper 80s to low triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Thunderstorms are possible at KEAR 10-12Z. Cluster of scattered
showers/storms will move out of Western KS and could impact KEAR
in the 10-12Z timeframe but are expected to stay northwest of
KGRI. Light easterly winds will shift to the south during the
early afternoon hours increasing to 8-10 KTS. Winds become light
and variable around sunset. SCT-BKN high level clouds are
possible throughout the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis/McGrew
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis/McGrew